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AQo turn bluff c/r

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Gonchan
Joined: 14.06.2011

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $25 (100 bb)
SB: $28.34 (113.4 bb)
BB: $36.22 (144.9 bb)
UTG+1: $25 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $17.28 (69.1 bb)
MP1: $36.78 (147.1 bb)
MP2: $42.92 (171.7 bb)
MP3: $32.20 (128.8 bb)
Hero (CO): $12.50 (50 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A J
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) Q T 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.06, BTN calls $1.06

Turn: ($3.97) T (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2, Hero raises to $10.69 and is all-in, BTN calls $8.69

River: ($25.35) 2 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results:

Spoiler

$25.35 pot ($1.14 rake)
Final Board: Q T 3 T 2
BTN showed J Q and won $24.21 ($11.71 net)
Hero showed A J and lost (-$12.50 net)

I firstly thought he did his bet as float because of vs missed CB bet 100(3)
However,I noticed now I didn't have enough sample.

On these sample what do you do? his calling range was not so narrow.

And if sample was over 1000, what do you do?


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Gerv
Joined: 07.05.2008

Hello,

THis is your equity:

Flop:

Board: Q♦T♦3♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    64.60%  62.94%   1.66% { AJs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, Ad9d, Kd9d, Ks9s, Jd9d, Js9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, AQo, ATo, KJo+, QTo+ }
MP3    35.40%  33.73%   1.66% { AhJs }

Turn:

Board: Q♦T♦3♠ T♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    68.07%  66.29%   1.77% { AJs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, Ad9d, Kd9d, Ks9s, Jd9d, Js9s, Ad8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, 8d7d, 7d6d, 6d5d, AQo, ATo, KJo+, QTo+ }
MP3    31.93%  30.16%   1.77% { AhJs }

So check/shoving with a limited sample is terrible. Betting is also not good because the board does not change that often.

Your question about 1000 hand sample does not make sense. You have 3 samples about Missed vs CBet, now you need at least 100 subsamples of that to actually use it so whenever Villain gets to that point, that is how many hands you need.

I would check/fold the Turn

Best regards,
Gerv


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