NL50 anon TT

I think most of his double floating range on Turn is something with a higher spade. I don't think he turns sets into bluffs on the River.

So the main question here is whether he floats two streets with weaker pairs and then bluffs the River after his showdown value decreases on the 4th spade River. And perhaps you might want to ask whether he value bets worse flushes himself.

I think given his low fold to Flop and Turn cbet, he will have many hands like QsJd.

My guess is that from the description you gave, this guy doesn't value bet thin, doesn't turn stuff into bluffs all that often (huge disparity with River AF and Flop Turn AF), and floats Flop and Turn here with all Js-As hands (low Flop and Turn fold to cbet). That would make this a fold. If some of my assumptions are wrong here then it could shift towards a call.

Originally posted by mbml
I think most of his double floating range on Turn is something with a higher spade. I don't think he turns sets into bluffs on the River.

So the main question here is whether he floats two streets with weaker pairs and then bluffs the River after his showdown value decreases on the 4th spade River. And perhaps you might want to ask whether he value bets worse flushes himself.

I think given his low fold to Flop and Turn cbet, he will have many hands like QsJd.

My guess is that from the description you gave, this guy doesn't value bet thin, doesn't turn stuff into bluffs all that often (huge disparity with River AF and Flop Turn AF), and floats Flop and Turn here with all Js-As hands (low Flop and Turn fold to cbet). That would make this a fold. If some of my assumptions are wrong here then it could shift towards a call.

On the flop I think he calls any pair+ and any xx:spade:.

On the turn I think he still continues with any 9x, 6x, pair+x:spade:, any xJ-A♠ and of course 2-p+. On the river however, I have no idea what his shipping range is. On the river all I know is that he is aggressive, but I haven't seen a showdown from him before nor was he in a spot that would put all his chips at risk and that's why I think it's kind of guessing game and maybe that's the reason to just fold in order to reduce variance.

On the other hand, considering the range I've put him on a river shove becomes more viable imo.

Thanks for your input.

dont like a shove cos I think you are behind his calling range. With Qs it gets thin already.

I'm leaning towards c/f but c/c may be fine.

Hey,

Some nice discussion here. I think when we bet he likely doesn't call worse, especially as 9s is out so we need him to call with the 8s? Pretty optimistic.

When we check and he bets, we need to find some bluffs we think he has. I think if somebody has a 9 here they are very likely to just check back and hopefulyl win rather than turn into a bluff. Ialso don't see villain betting 8s for value.

For that reason, I'd c/f.