NL50 SH ATo 2pair

I'd imagine a guy who ships in less than two pair here would be pretty easy to spot after so many hands and most likely his lose rate would be higher as well.

Given the odds I think it's a fold, you'd have to give him a very optimistic range even to break even imo.

bet bigger on turn

do you have showdown reads on his 2k hands? if not, the only hands you beat are A9 or less and your flipping to AJ and AK

hard to put him on AA / QQ but he can definitely flat a JJ from the blinds
i doubt he will do that with A7 - A9 though. so its either your flipping or way behind.

i think flop raise is good. just so happens that your crushed but his flop 3bet shove range

Originally posted by ihufa
bet bigger on turn

what about river sizing ?

so its a clear snap fold ?

Originally posted by OZSA
so its a clear snap fold ?

I think so. I have a really hard time coming up with a hand you can actually beat. Your really hoping to see QT only and he might not even play it this hard. I think you'll see AQ, KJ and TT most of the time.

Does he always donk out for pot or not? If he doesn't and he showed up with the nuts this time then his smaller donks are likely weak.

I don't know if he donks smaller with weak hands and pot with nuts, all I looked at was his call open 23% and his 18% donk. thats 4% hand range. 4% is TT,AKs,KJs,QTs,AKo,KJo,QTo, against this range I'm good after I raise..thats the only reason I called, if he'd have 5-10% donk I'd instafold too. Judging only by numbers I don't see how is this a fold.

Originally posted by OZSA
I don't know if he donks smaller with weak hands and pot with nuts, all I looked at was his call open 23% and his 18% donk. thats 4% hand range. 4% is TT,AKs,KJs,QTs,AKo,KJo,QTo, against this range I'm good after I raise..thats the only reason I called, if he'd have 5-10% donk I'd instafold too. Judging only by numbers I don't see how is this a fold.

Hm maybe because 18% donkbet means nothing?? It dpeneds what spots he donks out. How often do you see people dbet/shipping this flop with air or with weak draws??? I mean it isn't 754, 89J or T65 that he probably donks out way more often. Don't think about numbers only, also when he donks he doesn't donk.ship all the time he has also some dbet/call range and dbet/fold aswell.
Stop being such a hud monkey and start to think more about ranges.

Raise is overplay on flop unless u think he just randomly bets all ax and will call a raise

Originally posted by mbml
Raise is overplay on flop unless u think he just randomly bets all ax and will call a raise

so we don't protect/get value from Kx, Jx for the gutshots?

Nope u dont. Unless u think he calls with all those hands vs a raise.