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River value bet ?

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sim5sim5
Joined: 15.10.2011

Preflop: Hero is CO with K:h, K:d.
MP2 calls, MP3 raises, Hero 3-Bets, BU folds, SB caps, BB calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 2:d, 4:d, 2:h (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero raises, SB 3-Bets, BB calls, MP3 calls, Hero caps, SB calls, BB calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (18 BB) 6:c (4 players)
SB bets, BB calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, MP3 calls.

River: (26 BB) A:c (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP3 checks, Hero ?

Final Pot: 26 BB.

Should we bet the river for value ?


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4 replies
YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

You have to count hands you beat (according to your best judgement) that will call and compare to the number of hands that will check-raise (are you calling?). Also, AK/AQ/AJ/AT + Ax suited + A6/4 type of hands might just call, but you lose to those.

A bet would target pocket pairs < KK only. I can see an A in the ranges of the BB and MP3 even though they checked on the river. The SB might be on some slowplay. Hard to tell.

I'd say check.

/Johan = :f_confused:


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Avataren
Joined: 28.04.2010

bet and be sad he rivered you


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Dawnfall26
Joined: 30.07.2008

Hi!

There are quite a few Ax in their ranges(mostly AdXd) and MP3 looking at how he played is easily on AK,AQ(sure these would very often donk river so they also have to be discounted a bit). At the same time if you bet you basically hope to get 1 call,getting 2 calls is very optimistic and getting 3 worse calls is virtually impossible unless they are total retards. Also it gets really ugly if you somehow get raised...sure it looks like an easy fold but getting 1:29 is not so easy anymore.

Im checking and feel totally good about it.


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sim5sim5
Joined: 15.10.2011

Originally posted by Dawnfall26
Hi!

There are quite a few Ax in their ranges(mostly AdXd) and MP3 looking at how he played is easily on AK,AQ(sure these would very often donk river so they also have to be discounted a bit). At the same time if you bet you basically hope to get 1 call,getting 2 calls is very optimistic and getting 3 worse calls is virtually impossible unless they are total retards. Also it gets really ugly if you somehow get raised...sure it looks like an easy fold but getting 1:29 is not so easy anymore.

Im checking and feel totally good about it.

+1 Thanks


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