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AQs and outs

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Barlin63
Joined: 28.06.2011
PokerStrategist

Hand 3 (Last one for today).
I am not sure how to thank the coaches for their analysis and I do not want to reply on every hand analysis. So thanks a lot for your time and knowledge!

Please find the following hand for analysis:
I have AQs on the button and decide to flat call a 2bet from MP to see a flop and take it from there. After flop and turn on which I improve (more possible outs) so I decide to call his barrels. On the river I fold because I cannot believe that TP would be the best hand. I am not sure what his holding could be but AJ, AT, KQ or trips. Although his big bet does not convince me that he has the nuts I still opt for a fold.

What I know about the villains:
At the time at the table I had 41 hands (21/21, 9% 3bet and 100% fold to 3bet). 100% cbet at flop an 0%cbet at turn. No hard evidence.

Questions:

  • I guess the flat pre-flop is ok
  • Is the gut shot and the back door flush worth a call on the turn
  • Is the OESD worth a call on the turn

The hand
iPoker - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: $2.05 (VPIP: 19.13, PFR: 6.96, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 116)
MP: $2.00 (VPIP: 18.82, PFR: 18.82, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 88)
MP+1: $2.76 (VPIP: 16.73, PFR: 14.06, 3Bet Preflop: 5.43, Hands: 573)
CO: $1.29 (VPIP: 20.93, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 43)
Hero (BTN): $2.03
SB: $2.88 (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 23)
BB: $2.14 (VPIP: 18.33, PFR: 16.94, 3Bet Preflop: 4.13, Hands: 363)
UTG: $3.02 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 30)

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has Q♣ A♣

fold, fold, MP raises to $0.08, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.08, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.19, 2 players) J♦ 7♠ T♣
MP bets $0.14, Hero calls $0.14

Turn: ($0.47, 2 players) 9♦
MP bets $0.35, Hero calls $0.35

River: ($1.17, 2 players) A♦
MP bets $1.43, fold

MP wins $1.10


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1 reply

Hello,

First of all I would love to congratulate you for your effort in posting the hands and working on your game. Keep this up.

Now to the hand:

Preflop, against this guy, in position, calling is fine.

On the flop I prefer folding here. This is a board where villain will almost never bet without decent equity, and most of our outs are not clean (if we hit Q or A we are not sure that we have the best hand).
So, unless we spotted a leak in his game (e.g. he cbets the flop a lot but almost never on the turn) I'd fold here.

The turn is rather a fold here. I don't think we have enough implied odds here to justify a call here and our draw is quite obvious.

As played, folding the river is perfectly fine. I can't imagine him shoving worse hand here at all.

Best,
Plamen


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