Never deposit - ZOOM poker (i'm back! ...maybe)

ayagasgasyas about 4bi down 500 hands. so fucking sick

wtsd 23
w$sd non-small 0/10!!!!!
w$sf 32!!!!!

what the fuck. you almost couldn't do this bad if you tried

Originally posted by Tomaloc
what the fuck. you almost couldn't do this bad if you tried

Thats what I wonder sometimes as well. There are peeps just trying to give us their money but instead it goes the other way around.

Originally posted by RasTweet

Originally posted by Tomaloc
what the fuck. you almost couldn't do this bad if you tried

Thats what I wonder sometimes as well. There are peeps just trying to give us their money but instead it goes the other way around.

you know right ♦

so well, i'm just being too lazy to post. today went well though
had some discussions about blinds play, suited connectors, and highly unusual lines. can't disclose further ♦

vs fishy

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 132.32 BB
SB: 91.48 BB
BB: 96.6 BB
UTG: 41 BB
MP: 181.72 BB
CO: 45.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 2♥ Q♣

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, SB calls 1.6 BB, fold

Flop: (5 BB, 2 players) 2♦ Q♠ A♥
SB checks, Hero bets 3.6 BB, SB calls 3.6 BB

Turn: (12.2 BB, 2 players) Q♦
SB bets 5 BB, Hero raises to 16.8 BB, SB calls 11.8 BB

River: (45.8 BB, 2 players) K♥
SB bets 23 BB, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to 109.92 BB and is all-in, SB calls 46.08 BB and is all-in

Hero shows 2♥ Q♣ (Full House, Queens full of Twos) (Pre 51%, Flop 79%, Turn 100%)
SB shows J♦ T♦ (Straight, Ace High) (Pre 49%, Flop 21%, Turn 0%)
Hero wins 175.96 BB

due to runbad i actually wondered for some time if i had enough value in that shove. ofc being a fishy guy he could have tons of Qx so it isn't even close

vs fishy

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 141.36 BB
SB: 98.6 BB
Hero (BB): 155.44 BB
UTG: 139.64 BB
MP: 117.72 BB
CO: 115.92 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♣ Q♦

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) K♣ T♣ 9♦
SB bets 6 BB, Hero raises to 18 BB, SB calls 12 BB

Turn: (42 BB, 2 players) 3♥
SB checks, Hero bets 27.6 BB, SB calls 27.6 BB

River: (97.2 BB, 2 players) 5♥
SB checks, Hero bets 64.04 BB, SB calls 50 BB and is all-in

Hero shows J♣ Q♦ (Straight, King High) (Pre 26%, Flop 91%, Turn 97%)
SB shows Q♠ K♥ (One Pair, Kings) (Pre 74%, Flop 9%, Turn 3%)
Hero wins 189.2 BB

on another note, i have been quite addicted to this mix these last days

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 119.32 BB
SB: 127.12 BB
BB: 143.76 BB
UTG: 81.72 BB
MP: 174.96 BB
CO: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♦ A♦

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, SB raises to 24.8 BB, fold, Hero requests TIME...

OMGWTFGODDAMMITASDFGHJKL what the fucking fuck we also are deeper
i have some idea how to deal with 3bet shoves but no clue on super huge 3bets ♦

Hero checks villain's number of tables, Hero raises to 119.32 BB and is all-in, SB SNAPcalls 94.52 BB

Flop: (239.64 BB, 2 players) 2♥ K♥ 5♠

Turn: (239.64 BB, 2 players) 5♦

River: (239.64 BB, 2 players) Q♥

SB shows A♣ 3♠ (One Pair, Fives) (Pre 25%, Flop 17%, Turn 9%)
Hero shows K♦ A♦ (Two Pair, Kings and Fives) (Pre 75%, Flop 83%, Turn 91%)
Hero wins 231.64 BB

ALSO DODGED THE GUTSHOT FOURS

can anyone share their own experiences on super huge 3bets?
it is definitely a less common fishline than 3bet shoves, but maybe ranges are the same?

current monthly. behold my amazing hand volume and swongssss

Ppl don't 3b me

On a more serious note. When I'm deepish and IP I usually just call and play it post flop. Because we are deep we will have enough money behind to make some moves.

If it was a 100bb stack insta shove!

it's happening again, running super terrible. i just don't know how to approach this effectively

story of last 5 or something sessions: i open two tables, then it's not even 500 hands and i already get stacked least twice in coolers or marginal spots.
i know something is already creeping in deeper into my game and making me play worse, it's just so fucking sick.

this is how it went today

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 109.52 BB
SB: 77.16 BB
Hero (BB): 215.6 BB
UTG: 122.96 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 27.76 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 7♦ 7♠

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 6♣ 7♣ 6♥
SB checks, Hero bets 2.4 BB, SB calls 2.4 BB

Turn: (10.8 BB, 2 players) 9♥
SB checks, Hero bets 6 BB, SB raises to 12 BB, Hero raises to 30.8 BB, SB calls 18.8 BB

River: (72.4 BB, 2 players) 3♦
SB checks, Hero bets 53.48 BB, SB calls 40.96 BB and is all-in

Hero shows 7♦ 7♠ (Full House, Sevens full of Sixes) (Pre 82%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)
SB shows 6♠ 6♦ (Four of a Kind, Sixes) (Pre 18%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)
SB wins 147.36 BB

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 81.64 BB
SB: 391.8 BB
BB: 52.88 BB
UTG: 131.56 BB
MP: 148.64 BB
Hero (CO): 155.28 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K♠ A♥

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.4 BB, BTN raises to 9 BB, fold, BB calls 8 BB, Hero raises to 155.28 BB and is all-in, fold, BB calls 43.88 BB and is all-in

Flop: (115.16 BB, 2 players) 7♣ Q♣ 9♥

Turn: (115.16 BB, 2 players) J♣

River: (115.16 BB, 2 players) 5♦

BB shows 6♠ 6♦ (One Pair, Sixes) (Pre 55%, Flop 72%, Turn 77%)
Hero mucks K♠ A♥ (High Card, Ace) (Pre 45%, Flop 28%, Turn 23%)
BB wins 55 BB
BB wins 54.96 BB

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 398.36 BB
Hero (SB): 99.76 BB
BB: 41.64 BB
UTG: 140.48 BB
MP: 126.24 BB
CO: 116.2 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♠ A♠

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.6 BB, BB raises to 9.64 BB, fold, Hero raises to 99.76 BB and is all-in, BB calls 32 BB and is all-in
over <50h samples: co seems nitty, bb aggro midstack reg. i want to call against co's range and if bb shoves i'll backsqueeze

Flop: (86.28 BB, 2 players) 7♠ 9♦ 5♣

Turn: (86.28 BB, 2 players) A♥

River: (86.28 BB, 2 players) 8♠

Hero shows Q♠ A♠ (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 34%, Flop 18%, Turn 98%)
BB mucks Q♦ Q♥ (One Pair, Queens) (Pre 66%, Flop 82%, Turn 2%)
Hero wins 82.4 BB

i won but whatever, he had the better hand. maybe i assessed it wrong after all?

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 129.8 BB
Hero (UTG): 120.16 BB
MP: 163.84 BB
CO: 45.32 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J♠ K♠

Hero raises to 3.4 BB, fold, CO calls 3.4 BB, fold, fold, fold
villain 1-tabler

Flop: (8.2 BB, 2 players) 2♥ J♦ 5♠
Hero bets 4 BB, CO calls 4 BB

Turn: (16.2 BB, 2 players) 5♣
Hero bets 8.8 BB, CO calls 8.8 BB

River: (33.8 BB, 2 players) Q♠
Hero bets 10 BB, CO raises to 26 BB, fold
just wanted to milk midpairs

CO wins 51.36 BB

quit

i'm already using 1-2BI stoploss because i'd super obviously not play well beyond that, i also don't even know how well i am playing anymore.
how can you convince yourself that you aren't doing that badly when you lose 2 buy-ins every 500 hands? maybe you are actually playing pretty badly.

#2 ok
#3 ok

#1 i think you screwed up the flop betsizing, i mean are u really going to bet 30% of the pot with bluffs? dont think so.... just bet 2/3-3/4...
from there its nothing you can do obv

#4

i like your line betting 2 smallish barrels, but i think id bet more on the turn, about 11bb

thing is, if u bet so small on the turn and so small on the river, u never know if he actually hit the QJ/5x/whatever or he is just spazzing vs your sizings..... better make it 11bb ott and a slightly bigger otr/f t raise obv and there will be no guessing and levelling games involved ..

as played its a clear fold otr, there is just no one capable of bluffraising the river with this sizing on nl25, not to mention there is like no missed draw + noone double floats here ever, so his range is imo weighted towards 5x+

Originally posted by Tomaloc
how can you convince yourself that you aren't doing that badly when you lose 2 buy-ins every 500 hands? maybe you are actually playing pretty badly.

actually i lost 19 BI's in 4000 hands once.....yeah, i was thinking i just suck, but.... variance variance variance.... there is nothing better to help you and to overcome these swings than to just play through them which will give you a better mental resistance towards them in the future

how can you convince yourself that you aren't doing that badly when you lose 2 buy-ins every 500 hands? maybe you are actually playing pretty badly.

this is the biggest thing I hate about poker. Just today, I had a thought that climbing limits is probobly harder thing. Because you don't have big sample, and you can't never know if you're running bad or just suck.

During every downswing I have this thought: "Maybe, I actually suck at poker, and only were running hot all this time?".

It sucks big time.

I don't have much experience, but I'd advice you to play short sessions. Probably your mindset isn't at best condition, so if you feel, that you start to tilt, quit imeadiatly.

I hope this will pass soon

i should mention that #1 and #4 were vs 1-tabling guys.
so i am taking more face-up lines, on #1 i just expect him to c/f super often but i should bet bigger anyway
on #4 he has no bluffs obv, that said i could commit to shoving R on F+T but i don't think KJ is good enough, AJ would be

about shorter sessions, well a 1-2 bi stoploss already makes sessions super short because i am always hitting it before 500 hands anyway

btw, I like to think, that as much as you cooler, you will get coolered as much. And vice verca. So when I get coolered, I like to think that pokerstars owe me one now.

Pokerstars owe you big time now.

about AQ hand: just because you get it in against stronger hand doesn't mean that you weren't ahead of his range.

AQ hand is idk, not much sample, posted it for evaluation
i don't expect to be ahead when he calls but just to take a lot of dead money really often, that said i don't think i've had good backsqueezes in a while.

Oh man, I know how you are feeling!

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 398.36 BB
Hero (SB): 99.76 BB
BB: 41.64 BB
UTG: 140.48 BB
MP: 126.24 BB
CO: 116.2 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♠ A♠

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.6 BB, BB raises to 9.64 BB, fold, Hero raises to 99.76 BB and is all-in, BB calls 32 BB and is all-in
over <50h samples: co seems nitty, bb aggro midstack reg. i want to call against co's range and if bb shoves i'll backsqueeze

Flop: (86.28 BB, 2 players) 7♠ 9♦ 5♣

Turn: (86.28 BB, 2 players) A♥

River: (86.28 BB, 2 players) 8♠

Hero shows Q♠ A♠ (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 34%, Flop 18%, Turn 98%)
BB mucks Q♦ Q♥ (One Pair, Queens) (Pre 66%, Flop 82%, Turn 2%)
Hero wins 82.4 BB

i won but whatever, he had the better hand. maybe i assessed it wrong after all?

Just wondering about this hand. I'm really unsure what the best line would be to take.

If BB is a reg, I doubt he'd call our shove with worse hands. If we feel he squeezes light (you mention he's aggro so he might be), can we not raise say ~23bb? I can't imagine he'd 5bet bluff therefore he'd fold all his trash and maybe PP's such as 10s and JJ and shove with QQ+ and AK?

Thoughts?

Originally posted by Samboro

Spoiler

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 398.36 BB
Hero (SB): 99.76 BB
BB: 41.64 BB
UTG: 140.48 BB
MP: 126.24 BB
CO: 116.2 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♠ A♠

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.6 BB, BB raises to 9.64 BB, fold, Hero raises to 99.76 BB and is all-in, BB calls 32 BB and is all-in
over <50h samples: co seems nitty, bb aggro midstack reg. i want to call against co's range and if bb shoves i'll backsqueeze

Flop: (86.28 BB, 2 players) 7♠ 9♦ 5♣

Turn: (86.28 BB, 2 players) A♥

River: (86.28 BB, 2 players) 8♠

Hero shows Q♠ A♠ (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 34%, Flop 18%, Turn 98%)
BB mucks Q♦ Q♥ (One Pair, Queens) (Pre 66%, Flop 82%, Turn 2%)
Hero wins 82.4 BB

i won but whatever, he had the better hand. maybe i assessed it wrong after all?

Just wondering about this hand. I'm really unsure what the best line would be to take.

If BB is a reg, I doubt he'd call our shove with worse hands. If we feel he squeezes light (you mention he's aggro so he might be), can we not raise say ~23bb? I can't imagine he'd 5bet bluff therefore he'd fold all his trash and maybe PP's such as 10s and JJ and shove with QQ+ and AK?

Thoughts?

hello sir, welcome that's a very legitimate question i had myself way back then.

and i'm kinda sick of the game so i'm going to write a huge theory post FOR FREE!!!!11 (lol yeah big deal, also you can prob find this elsewhere anyway)

anyway let's go on to the...

maths of backsqueezing

the basic idea on a backsqueeze is, if he squeezes wide but "backcalls" tightly, we have a high print-moniez potential from all the times he squeezes wide and folds.
if he squeeze/calls wider (which is often the case) then it helps to have a decent hand.

let's "solve" the case for when he only calls QQ+,AK as you pointed out.
when he calls it's obv scary as against that we have like 25% equity or something, but how often does he need to fold?

what we win when he folds: 3+3+9.64 = 15.64
what we lose when he calls: 41.64-(86.28*0.75) = -23.07 (the premise behind the way i used to calculate this is that villain is "entitled" to 75% of the pot when he calls with that range)

so how wide do we need him to squeeze in this scenario in order to break even?
(p = probability of him folding)

p*15.64 - (1-p)*23.07 = 0
15.64p - 23.07 + 23.07p = 0
38.71p = 23.07
p = ~0.60

so we need him to fold about 60% of the time not considering rake.
considering that QQ+,AK is about a 2% range considering our blockers (!), if he squeezes more than 5% of the time we are making a profit.
definitely sounds realistic for this late pos scenario

in reality, though, i'd think that his actual calling range is wider for reasons i'll explain soon.
however, when we add more hands, suddenly AQ does that much better so it's still ok. you can check it for yourself ♦

conclusion (aka "why people hate midstackers")

midstacks can shove pre or postflop so much more easily! and, as we know, whenever someone is all-in, he gets to see all cards to showdown (aka "realize their equity")

if they realize their equity more often, that means they can play wider value ranges... which in turn allows them to add more bluffs. which means they can be pretty aggro

i'm pretty sure that this is what they teach people in the midstacking slums. so everyone is like LOLZ WIDE RANGEZ PRINT MONIEZZZ!!!11
a good midstacker is definitely a tough opponent... because he will know the midstacking intrincacies better than you and he doesn't give a fuck about anyone, but you can't play superwide too because you have to worry about the other deepstacks.

hello guys

actually won some sklansky bucks today but ran 2bi under EV obv.
that said, think i have played better after today's bootcamp productivity & mindset coaching, hope i can keep it up

what i want to do in this post, though, is to introduce a "theorem" that "we" just made up in a random skype conversation.
so, behold, the Microstakes River Spot Theorem:

whenever you get to the river and face a big bet from a microstakes regular, you can fold all your 1pair or worse hands regardless of the previous action.

so well? does it make sense?
just check your database and filter for spots where you called a big river bet. you know it's true!

the theorem works under the following assumptions:

- microstakes players don't really like to 3barrel often.
- when they do decide to bluff the river, it's usually not with a super huge sizing because of fear of failure.
- when regs take some random WTF line it's usually for value.

here are a few applications:

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 107.36 BB
SB: 150.96 BB
BB: 133.6 BB
UTG: 43.52 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 105.84 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 4♠ 2♠

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (4.4 BB, 2 players) J♦ J♣ 2♣
BB checks, Hero bets 2.4 BB, BB raises to 6 BB, Hero calls 3.6 BB

Turn: (16.4 BB, 2 players) 2♥
BB bets 11.6 BB, Hero calls 11.6 BB

River: (39.6 BB, 2 players) 4♥
BB bets 28.8 BB, Hero calls 28.8 BB

BB shows J♠ Q♠ (Full House, Jacks full of Twos) (Pre 67%, Flop 100%, Turn 98%)
Hero mucks 4♠ 2♠ (Full House, Twos full of Jacks) (Pre 33%, Flop 0%, Turn 2%)
BB wins 92.84 BB

okay, people bluff c/r paired boards often enough and they might follow up with a turn bet.
but pretty much no one on nl25 has a balanced range and/or the guts to 3barrel me off something that could easily be AA or even Jx. fold the river.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 195.4 BB
SB: 255.24 BB
BB: 288.76 BB
UTG: 100.4 BB
MP: 111.2 BB
Hero (CO): 106.32 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9♦ A♥

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.4 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.4 BB

Flop: (5.2 BB, 2 players) 2♥ 9♥ 3♥
BB bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

Turn: (11.2 BB, 2 players) 3♣
BB bets 6 BB, Hero calls 6 BB

River: (23.2 BB, 2 players) 5♦
BB bets 18 BB, Hero calls 18 BB

BB shows K♥ 8♥ (Flush, King High) (Pre 39%, Flop 68%, Turn 75%)
Hero mucks 9♦ A♥ (Two Pair, Nines and Threes) (Pre 61%, Flop 32%, Turn 25%)
BB wins 56.52 BB

his line doesn't make a lot of sense and board came out with pretty much one of the best runouts for bluffcatching - a set blocker came on the turn, no overcards on the river and i have a flush blocker.
but the regs just don't bluff the river for that sizing. fold the river.

these were a few spots where i failed to apply the theorem

do you agree? disagree?
what do you think?

I agree and think it's even more pronounced on zoom. It makes x/r rivers a very dangerous occupation.

Occasionally you'll see a reg that can bluff the river with a non trivial frequency.

I like having a river bet stat and fold to river bet stat on my hud so I can see their tendencies.

I watched the first 5 or 10 minutes of the mindset productivity video and couldn't stomach any more. Perhaps I should start my own 'the ugly truth' (like the bad romantic comedy movie) mindset coaching where I tell people how it is without any icing.

Regarding the bold, I think the exception to this would be flop x and turn x then facing a river bet. Apart from that, I completely agree with the theory.

I think I need a much larger sample to really discuss specific villain tenancies, however, after a quick glance at my DB, this is a hand where I called a sizeable river bet Villain was a 17/13 over only 25 hands.

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $18.59 (185.9 bb)
SB: $5.47 (54.7 bb)
BB: $13.87 (138.7 bb)
UTG: $10.79 (107.9 bb)
MP: $36.94 (369.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $18.08 (180.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T 9
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, BTN folds, SB calls $0.15, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.80) 9 3 J (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $0.50, 2 folds, MP calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.80) 9 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.90, MP raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1.60

River: ($6.80) 8 (2 players)
MP bets $5, Hero calls $5

Results:

Originally posted by jules97
I agree and think it's even more pronounced on zoom. It makes x/r rivers a very dangerous occupation.

Occasionally you'll see a reg that can bluff the river with a non trivial frequency.

I like having a river bet stat and fold to river bet stat on my hud so I can see their tendencies.

I watched the first 5 or 10 minutes of the mindset productivity video and couldn't stomach any more. Perhaps I should start my own 'the ugly truth' (like the bad romantic comedy movie) mindset coaching where I tell people how it is without any icing.

how come?

Originally posted by Tomaloc
what i want to do in this post, though, is to introduce a "theorem" that "we" just made up in a random skype conversation.
so, behold, the Microstakes River Spot Theorem:

whenever you get to the river and face a big bet from a microstakes regular, you can fold all your 1pair or worse hands regardless of the previous action.

so well? does it make sense?
just check your database and filter for spots where you called a big river bet. you know it's true!

the theorem works under the following assumptions:

- microstakes players don't really like to 3barrel often.
- when they do decide to bluff the river, it's usually not with a super huge sizing because of fear of failure.
- when regs take some random WTF line it's usually for value.

do you agree? disagree?
what do you think?

I would say this is definitely true in Zoom, from my limited experience of it.

Not as much on regular tables, there are a decent amount of (mainly russian) NL25 regs who will happily 3barrel worse than top pair.

I would say the opposite of this theorem is also true, that 3 barreling as a bluff is pretty profitable vs regulars. Especially if you bluff barrel something with equity like bdfd and they go on monkey tilt after calling down when you river it

seems like the theorem got widely accepted, pretty much everyone i talked with got to agree ♦

i casually came to that realization (again) when i was reviewing a few hands.
"man, i am always losing when i make these river calls, they always have it... OMGASDFOHWAIT"

it was like an "AHA moment", except that instead of figuring out something reasonable, it was just something incredibly stupid.

i am always losing because they are never bluffing! FML :facepalm:

nl25 players don't valuebet thinly and they don't balance their ranges/sizings.
so when they bet big on the river, they ALWAYS have it and you should forget anything like "GTO calls" and trying not to be too exploitable you are the one actually doing exploitative folds.

Originally posted by jules97
I agree and think it's even more pronounced on zoom. It makes x/r rivers a very dangerous occupation.

Occasionally you'll see a reg that can bluff the river with a non trivial frequency.

I like having a river bet stat and fold to river bet stat on my hud so I can see their tendencies.

I watched the first 5 or 10 minutes of the mindset productivity video and couldn't stomach any more. Perhaps I should start my own 'the ugly truth' (like the bad romantic comedy movie) mindset coaching where I tell people how it is without any icing.
river bet and fold to river bet, that's interesting.
i know of one nl500 reg that uses that and i've considered using it myself, but then i just thought i that hardly have any sample on anyone to be using it... so i just put it into the popup.

also, i would def watch that ♦

Originally posted by Samboro
Regarding the bold, I think the exception to this would be flop x and turn x then facing a river bet. Apart from that, I completely agree with the theory.

I think I need a much larger sample to really discuss specific villain tenancies, however, after a quick glance at my DB, this is a hand where I called a sizeable river bet Villain was a 17/13 over only 25 hands.

Spoiler

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $18.59 (185.9 bb)
SB: $5.47 (54.7 bb)
BB: $13.87 (138.7 bb)
UTG: $10.79 (107.9 bb)
MP: $36.94 (369.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $18.08 (180.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T 9
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, BTN folds, SB calls $0.15, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.80) 9 3 J (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $0.50, 2 folds, MP calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.80) 9 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.90, MP raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1.60

River: ($6.80) 8 (2 players)
MP bets $5, Hero calls $5

Results: $16.80 pot ($0.76 rake)
Final Board: 9 3 J 9 8
MP showed Q A and lost (-$8.20 net)
Hero showed T 9 and won $16.04 ($7.84 net)

interesting hand, i still think it's a fold though tbh.

let's see: you bet into 3 other people and the pfa goes c/c, then he c/r the turn. that's not too weak.
he does rep somewhat narrow like JJ/33/T9s/98s/A9s at most but the only hands he could turn into a bluff are something like QT.

as it happened he just completely spazzed obv
rly super easy c/f flop for him, ott i guess he just didn't believe your sizing and decided to take off. he prob was tilted or something.

Originally posted by metza
I would say this is definitely true in Zoom, from my limited experience of it.

Not as much on regular tables, there are a decent amount of (mainly russian) NL25 regs who will happily 3barrel worse than top pair.

I would say the opposite of this theorem is also true, that 3 barreling as a bluff is pretty profitable vs regulars. Especially if you bluff barrel something with equity like bdfd and they go on monkey tilt after calling down when you river it
yeah, that sounds about right. make an exception for russians ♦

as for 3barreling yourself... the reg must be at least half decent so that he actually can give you credit. (rightly, given the field's tendencies)
i've seen it many times bad regs doing some ridiculous calldowns in pretty much pure fish "lolz i has TP" style

also remember that the theorem specifically mentions bet sizing (a big bet), although any 3barrel is most often a fairly good hand too ofc.