plo100, strong draw vs fish

Obviously you're going nowhere with 20 outs but it makes sense to save something for the river since villain can't fold if you hit.

Hi,

I would pot flop after he decided to raise me.
If he is representing JJ, then you´re still have 47% equity
board: 7c4sJd
Hand Equity Wins Ties
JJ** 53.41% 1,141,107 17,129
5d6d9s8d 46.59% 994,264 17,129

If he is overplaying AA, then you´re 62% favorite

But most important, if you use run it twice and he has it on (I would for example using it:)), then whatever he has, you´re most of the times going to split the pot and get cool 50 cent profit (3 from BU+ 1 from BB- 3$ rake that stars take)
If you take b/c line, c/c turn, c/f turn then you end up likely c/c turn with your 40% equity, expecting to get paid if you hit one of your outs on the river.

best regards,

You seem to be confused a lot about this hand.

After skod's flop bet gets raised, the hand stops being about equity. Equity is completely irrelevant at this point because you need to improve to win the pot.

What you have is a situation where villain is not going to fold. Therefore you can save money by waiting to see what the river card is before shoving your last few dollars in.

Even if you were 99% favourite on the flop, this would still be the correct way to play it against an opponent who isn't going to fold.

The two outcomes are:

You hit: and win $120
You lose: and lose $96

If you shove the flop then your two outcomes are win or lose $120. So even if you were 99% favourite on the flop, you would still be 30 cents of EV better by waiting until the river.

my main problem b/c flop, c/c turn, c/f river is that:
- if we know that player is raising for aces (or at any hand that we´re 50% favorite), we should shove, since if we run that situation 100 times, we win 60% for example against aces and loose 40%

So imo we can´t go wrong if we´re putting money in at worst case 47% underdog.

Even if you were 99% favourite on the flop, this would still be the correct way to play it against an opponent who isn't going to fold.
- I don´t understand it- why I should see turn to try hitting my 1%, than I can get all-in being 99% favorite. EV wise this can´t really go wrong.

best regards,

Your opponent is not folding no matter what hits the river.

You can put the money in to the pot as a 99% favourite or as a 100% favourite, which scenario has the better EV?

You can put the money in to the pot as a 55% favourite or as a 100% favourite, which scenario has the better EV?

Originally posted by Ribbo
Your opponent is not folding no matter what hits the river.

You can put the money in to the pot as a 99% favourite or as a 100% favourite, which scenario has the better EV?

You can put the money in to the pot as a 55% favourite or as a 100% favourite, which scenario has the better EV?

that case I agree- calling flop, calling turn and then shoving river is fine.

But here we face following problem:
-turn can pair and we make incorrect fold on the turn
-turn brings spades, clubs or even diamonds and give opponent also flush outs, which means we can´t shove any river card when we improve and have easily reversed implied odds
- turn is Q giving opponent higher straight draw.

Even though it might be possible I would not like bet/call flop, c/c potsize bet on the turn to then shove river, is that:
we have 40% equity both from aces/sets and if he has some blockers then our equity drops to 35% and 24bb imo is not risk reward that we should take that line oop.

We're not making an incorrect fold if the turn pairs as it has already been pointed out that he has a read on the opponent that he always has a set (because he is a meganit).

It's like you didnt even read the first post.

He raises, which can imo mean only a set

You keep talking about what the turn can bring when the whole discussion is about what to do on the river with the turn card already on the table.

Originally posted by Ribbo
We're not making an incorrect fold if the turn pairs as it has already been pointed out that he has a read on the opponent that he always has a set (because he is a meganit).

It's like you didnt even read the first post.

He raises, which can imo mean only a set

You keep talking about what the turn can bring when the whole discussion is about what to do on the river with the turn card already on the table.

Ok, villain has set, we´re not putting our money in 47-53 dog. Instead we´re c/c potsize turn bet with 40% equity, expecting always to get paid river for extra 24$.
That case I would not c/c potsize bet, since I´m not sure I get correct pot odds (even if I know I always get paid on the river) and I don´t want to give fish extra 63$, that he is going have around 60% of times. There should be more profitable situations.

Yesterday I saw fish raise/folding middle set on dry baord (although we were also 180bb deep), so I think even if hero puts him on set, he would sometimes take raise/fold line if we pot flop and that should make flop all-in more profitable play.

best regards,

Each person you play against is an individual. You can't just label them as "fish" and from that assume they all play the same way.

If someone has a read, then they have a read, but in this case it changes nothing. You still have to hit, villain is NEVER folding and you lose if you dont improve (and all of your outs are to the nuts).

When we call the flop raise, we dont know that villain is going to pot the turn. All we know is that we are currently behind and that we have no feq. Therefore 3b flop seemingly must be less good than calling.

Clearly if the turn pairs, we can snap fold if villain pots.

On this turn, it seems like we can play perfectly, by being willing to call potsz turn and still check fold riv unimproved.

Originally posted by Ribbo
Obviously you're going nowhere with 20 outs but it makes sense to save something for the river since villain can't fold if you hit.

We don´t have 20 outs though I think? I think you counted the 9 as an out as well, but it only gives us a pair of nines and no straight.

Having that said, with only 10 nut outs and 17 outs in total, I think folding the turn is definitely a viable option. Can´t really do the math for that, but it is for sure a close one.
Just wanted to have said that

We can't fold the turn; we need 33% or more to make a direct call (but we ofc have maximum implied odds as villain is never folding), and we are getting 40,27% ott, so it's a clear call

There are a lot of situation in PLO where you know your opponent's range pretty well but he doesn't know yours. So you can play perfectly against him but he can't do that against you.

Most common is a situation where opponent gives away his hand (set usually). When you are on a draw, you can shove the flop and take the flip. It's marginally +EV. But that isn't the max EV line.

You always have to think about the stack sizes. Can I fold on some turn/river cards? Can opponent fold on some turn/river cards? Sometimes you have a situation where you can fold sometimes but your opponent can't. So it's better for you than just shoving. You might even be a favorite on the flop with your draw, but still it's better to call than shove.

Let's say you both have $160 left in the stacks and opponent raises you with a set (you have a good read). Your draw is 65% favorite against his set on flop, and opponent raises to $80 (pot was $20 and you bet pot on flop). So you are facing a raise of $60 to a $180 pot, and you know you have 65% equity. You can either call or shove.

Shove is definitely +EV, you are a favorite. But calling is even more +EV, cos you can fold on some turns but your opponent can't fold on any turns.

Yeah, sometimes your opponent has something else than a set, and you might end up making an incorrect fold on turn. Or opponent makes a hero fold when a draw completes. That's poker. The important thing is that your line is better than shoving in the long run.

It's not just about making +EV decisions, it's about maximizing your EV when you can.