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22$; 10man; bb60; 85o steal, 2 barrel bluff on a nasty board

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wiarygodny
Joined: 16.07.2009
Oldschool Grinder

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $60(BB) Replayer
Hero ($1,940)
BB ($2,300)
UTG ($2,000)
UTG+1 ($1,760)
UTG+2 ($1,940)
MP1 ($1,800)
MP2 ($2,320)
MP3 ($2,000)
CO ($2,060)
BTN ($1,880)

Dealt to Hero 5♣ 8♠

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $150, BB calls $90

FLOP ($300) T♣ 4♣ J♦

Hero checks, BB checks

TURN ($300) T♣ 4♣ J♦ K♣

Hero bets $155, BB calls $155

RIVER ($610) T♣ 4♣ J♦ K♣ 3♥

Hero bets $310,

tightish unknown 19/11/2.3/107

spew again?

flop - looking at his VPIP he's not gonna fold this flop very often so im just check/folding

turn - after he checks back this drawy flop i cant imagine not trying to steal the pot at least once since i have absolutely no SD value and he's showing weakness so far

river

reasons to shut down and not invest any more chips in the pot:
- he's an unknown
- the board should have hit him hard and there's a big chance he calls me down with a lot of considerably weak hands that have me beat (Jx, Tx, maybe some pockets, Ax even)
- river is a blank

reasons for another barrel:
- his range should include a lot of busted draws
- he seems tightish so he may actually fold a lot of hands that have me beat
- if he had something really decent on this turn (strong Kx+) theres a big chance he would have raised it
- i have absolutely no SD value

Am i wasting my chips again on some unneccesarily risky bluffs against wrong players or maybe there is some sense in this one?


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pre i would just fold. this guy has 19 VPIP which isnt tight enough to raise ATC imo. If he was <10 VPIP you can raise ATC for instant profit.

flop good c/f

turn i like your stab after he shows weakness.
river I think your bet is OK. he usually doesn't have a strong range and you need to bet to win. Your 1/2 pot should work the required 33% to make it profitable IMO.


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