TT, bet bet fold

Hi

River fold is good.

Flop: what worse hands do u think villain checkcall flop with? Do u hve value? How do u expect villain to play hands like QQ or JJ or AQ in this situation?

Can he play KK, AK this way?

Originally posted by gAsheks
Can he play KK, AK this way?

He probably could from time to time (KK being the most likely to slowplay)

Would you just plan on giving up once he checks on the flop?

I think when he checks this super dry board after 3betting pre he always has some sort of showdown value or some sort of nutted hand, because he would almost certainly cbet his air type hands here. Or am I giving villain too much credit here?

So what would be a good line to take here?

I'd assume checking back the flop is best here, but then what do you do on the turn + river? Do you try to just check it down and fold if he bets, even if the turn/river blank out? Do you value bet the river if he keeps checking?

I would expect him to play AQ,QQ,JJ pretty much the same way here, by check/calling flop.

Based on his lose 3bet range, he could also have 55-99 that he`s check calling the flop with. Not that often he could have AJ if he`s expecting me to call a bit light, and he would probably bet any KJ,KQ,QJ... suited connector type of hand.

The turn:

The turn is problematic, after he donks the 10c, I can't really call... if I just call the turn I show my hand face`up I would never have KX in my hand. That's the reason I made that raise to his 10c donk.

Do you thinks he`s cbeting AQ,and small PP 100% of the time?

The way this hand went I would put him on JJ

About villain: I'm not sure what level he's at, but if he's a decent regular he would often bluff all his air hands on this "nice to bluff at" flop. It's King high and he can rep AK really well so I don't see why he shouldn't Cbet the flop with his air hands like AQ. Hands like 55-99 are also not too strong and many players would just bet the flop with these.

On the other hand, JJ/QQ are less vulnerable and these hands may often opt for a check/call line instead. End result? Such players tend to have a very well-defined check/calling range. They mostly have medium strength hands when they take this line, and their flop betting range is much more polarized between KX+ and air.

If my analysis holds true for this villain, then your line is going to be really bad vs such a player.

Do you have value on the Flop? Nope.

Originally posted by TinoLaan
Would you just plan on giving up once he checks on the flop?

I think when he checks this super dry board after 3betting pre he always has some sort of showdown value or some sort of nutted hand, because he would almost certainly cbet his air type hands here. Or am I giving villain too much credit here?

So what would be a good line to take here?

I'd assume checking back the flop is best here, but then what do you do on the turn + river? Do you try to just check it down and fold if he bets, even if the turn/river blank out? Do you value bet the river if he keeps checking?

hmm if this were NL5 or NL2 it would be less certain - Players are less aware of what they should do. If this were NL25 I think most NL25 players are aware of whatever I wrote in the previous paragraph. NL10 is probably the in-between limit, but perhaps they are starting to be a little more aware of ranges and boards to Cbet on.

I would probably check back twice and then bet River when checked to (expecting QQ and JJ to bet at some point in time). If he bets Turn I probably fold and if he bets River it's probably a fold as well.

I agree 100% with what you said. My hand reading is messed up.
Thank you for the detailed analysis!

Originally posted by cozacu
I agree 100% with what you said. My hand reading is messed up.
Thank you for the detailed analysis!

no problem! glad to be of help