22$; 60/40 6max; bb40; AA, river decision with top set

why do you want only 2 streets with top set?

3 streets imo, bet turn shove river.

i would obv love to get 3 streets of value, i just don't see a lot of hands a reggish player is calling 3 times on this board, considering that the vast majority of hands good enough for him to do that contain the case A, which makes them rather unlikely. Do you really think i should expect to get 3 streets of value from a half-decent guy if he holds a pocket pair that didn't hit a set? I would assume he calls on the flop and thats it, even with KK, its a 3bet pot after all.

let's put him on a range first:

his preflop range imo:
he's a regfish so it may be quite wide - KK-22,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KQo - thats 105 hand combos (after the card removal)

what would he call 3 streets with? 55-22,ATs+,KhJh,AJo+ - 28 combos (including 6 that have me beat), maybe even less if he ch/folds lower Ax to a 3rd barrel - that's 26,7% of his preflop range (21% when we count only the hands i beat)

what would he call ONLY 2 streets (lets assume flop and river) with? KK-QQ, TT-66, JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, KdJd, KsJs - 47 combos (again maybe less if he doesn't call river with low pockets) - 44.8%

out of the remaining 30 i believe he's gonna call 16 once (KQo, KQs) (15.2%) and fold the rest on the flop already (QTs+, KTs, JTs)

here im getting a bit lost in my calculation but anyway, SPOILER, it looks like you're right

if we're going for 3 barrels we'll stack him (a bit of a simplification but plausible imo) - so we're winning 1800 extra chips 21% of the time = 378 chips on average. No idea how to account for those 5.7% when he stacks us though?

two barrels 44.8% x 485 (155 flop and 330 river) = 217 chips

so it looks like 3 abrrels are a MUCH better option in the long run, even if we're gonna get paid less often. So unless we think he's capable of folding all but the strongest Ax to 3 barrels thats what we should go for.

Thanks for the eval and motivating me to do some interesting, at least for me, calcs can u pls just double check it for some silly mistakes?

a good player doesn't limp/call pre. He is bad. therefore, go for 3 streets.

your calculations are nice, but its such a huge guess on his range and frequencies that it's not going to be extremely accurate.

my thoughts are, he is fish -> bet bet bet.

oh btw, what about all those undersets that he has in his range like 22/33/55?

he opened with a minraise, not a limp. Does this make the range ive given him more accurate? i really do think it makes sense and its not that difficult to estimate it with not a massive margin of error.

not sure i understand your question abt undersets.. dont you think a plr like this may easily have them in his preflop range? I guess we both agree that he's stacking them off post, no question abt it.

sorry had a bad day. i thought u missed the small pairs in your range calculation, but you had them.

I mean you have a 230 sample. you really dont know much about him. so doing a calculation where you know exactly what he does with every combo is going to be questionable. will he have a flop c/r bluff range? will he have a turn c/r bluff range? i dont know. maybe? what about a flop donk range? what about if he c/c flop then donks turn?

and what about sizing adjustments?
will he call turn for 200 with a 200% higher frequency than 350?