Hi guys.
Villain is 27/24/10.8 reg (452 hands) and has: c-bet flop 75 // c-bet turn 40 // c-bet river 100 // WTSD 24.
BTN: $161.38 (161.4 bb)
SB: $106.50 (106.5 bb)
BB: $188.10 (188.1 bb)
UTG: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (MP): $100 (100 bb)
CO: $102.18 (102.2 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP with J
A
UTG raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 4 folds
Flop: ($7.50) 2 9
J
(2 players)
UTG bets $4.72, Hero calls $4.72
Turn: ($16.94) 2 (2 players)
UTG bets $12, Hero calls $12
River: ($40.94) 7 (2 players)
UTG bets $20.72
Hero's range at river is 22 combos JJ-99,AJs,KJs,QJs,QhTh.
Villain's bet sizing in conjunction with this run out makes me think he is bluffing here a VERY low % of the time. QTs or some AhKh/AhQh are the only bluffs he might bet river with, but I doubt it given the turn/river blanks.
Can we EVER consider folding AJ here, given the bet sizing seems to indicate that he has so few bluffs in his range?
