With my weak mathematics background, I am very confused with certain concepts.
I know i can find most of the probability but I just want to try it out myself,Please help me if you are free.
Ok, I was calculating AK vs 76 calling pre in a 3bet pot.
Lets keep 76 offsuit to make it easier to do this.
So for 76 to hit a straight draw AND i have a TP
TP = A or K
TP,9,8
TP,8,9
8,9,TP
9,8,TP
8,TP,9
9,TP,8
TP,8,5
TP,5,8
5,TP,8
8,TP,5
5,8,TP
8,5,TP
TP,5,4
TP,4,5
4,5,TP
5,4,TP
4,TP,5
5,TP,4
For each combination the probability of it is;
(6/48) x (4/47) x (4/46) = (96/103776) = 0.09%
So we have 16 combination;
0.09% x 16 = 1.44%
So lets say Villain open raise 3 bb and called my 3 bet for 9 bb,
98.5% of the time he is going to lose the 9bb if he misses the flop?
And even he gets the draw he might not hit and might lose more money?