[Closed] I'm a champion. End of The Next 30 Days Challenge

Villain stats: 31/24/4
I expect him to have calling range : 31-(24-4) = 11 percent. That's raw estimation and depend on stact size, your image, etc. Something like:

JJ-77,AQo-A9o,KQo-KJo,AQs-A9s,KQs-KTs,QJs

20% calling range is still make sense (because villain have good price on BB) but yours (32%) is way too high IMO.

Board: 2♠Q♥2♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    54.83%  48.87%   5.95% { AJo }
BB     45.17%  39.22%   5.95% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, AQo-A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

Board: 2♠Q♥2♦

Board: 2♠Q♥2♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    47.03%  38.58%   8.45% { AJo }
BB     52.97%  44.52%   8.45% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo-A7o, KJo+, QJo }

       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    42.83%  33.38%   9.45% { AJo }
BB     57.17%  47.72%   9.45% { JJ-77, AQs-A9s, KTs+, QJs, AQo-A9o, KJo+ }

On the flop, I wont cbet if my equity less than 50% versus him (his fCB is way too low, floater)

Originally posted by UnknownJoseph

Originally posted by patszerdonk
IMHO, villain range for calling steal is too wide.

How do you see his range? What would you change?

Originally posted by patszerdonk
Hero play IP, and have higger pot equity. Why dont bet for value on the flop?

Probably because I don't know how to play it on later streets. How would you play it?
I think that we don't have to steal this pot on the flop. We can do this on the turn too. We can peak more eguity and bet. Or after 2x opponents check we can bet turn and river.
With beting this board we don't have auto profit cbet because villain doesn't fold.
What is you plan on the turn when he calls?

OK, so If we assume your given range (~30% calling range for villain), I'll cbet 3/4 pot size for value, and cbet turn 3/4 pot about 40% of the time (i.e any ten and higger card give us more equity) and some pure bluff (i.e five or lower cards)

That's one of best flop for us, and If you do not cbet such board, then I guess you will cbet in position less than 30% vs Villain?

Thanks for answer, I learn many things by following this blog. :heart:

FR:

Graph:

SH:

Graph:

Not much to say. Move forward. It will be better today.

@patszerdonk
I will digest your post later and give us an answer as fast as I can. I would like to focus on SR and prepare to next session right now

Equity Analysis

1. Full Tilt - $1 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $151.70 (VPIP: 17.87, PFR: 14.65, 3Bet Preflop: 8.15, Hands: 628)
SB: $43.00 (VPIP: 16.37, PFR: 13.35, 3Bet Preflop: 6.33, Hands: 6,273)
BB: $59.00 (VPIP: 18.24, PFR: 9.10, 3Bet Preflop: 3.65, Hands: 23,293)
Hero (UTG): $111.95
UTG+1: $100.00 (VPIP: 12.17, PFR: 9.78, 3Bet Preflop: 3.63, Hands: 14,481)
MP: $109.45 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 8.16, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 49)
MP+1: $94.00 (VPIP: 14.42, PFR: 8.39, 3Bet Preflop: 2.34, Hands: 557)
CO: $188.90 (VPIP: 14.75, PFR: 11.27, 3Bet Preflop: 4.42, Hands: 23,179)

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has 4♦ 4♥

Hero raises to $3.00, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $3.00, fold, fold

Flop: ($7.50, 2 players) 5♣ 4♣ 8♣
Hero bets $6.00, BTN raises to $17.00, fold

BTN wins $18.55

vs reg 18/15 FtCB 36% after 645 hands. Not big simple size. Raise CB just 13% but again simple size not big.

Preflop:

I don't know his 3betting habits. Simple size isn't big. 3b btn vs utg just 1/10 so not much. We can smart guessing.

Equity Win Tie
MP2 41.74% 40.77% 0.97% { 4d4h }
MP3 58.26% 57.29% 0.97% { QQ-22, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo+ }

Flop:

Board: 5c4c8c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 74.09% 72.08% 2.01% { 4d4h }
MP3 25.91% 23.90% 2.01% { QQ-22, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo+ }

I bet huge on the flop for pure value. His FtCB is just 36%. Villain reraise me.

I think that he is able to do it with:

Board: 5c4c8c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 50.31% 48.85% 1.46% { 4d4h }
CO 49.69% 48.22% 1.46% { 77-66, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 5d5h, 5d5s, 5h5s, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, JcTc, Tc9c, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7s6s, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs }

when I shove villain calls with:

Board: 5c4c8c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 42.65% 41.18% 1.46% { 4d4h }
BU 57.35% 55.89% 1.46% { 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 5d5h, 5d5s, 5h5s, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, JcTc, Tc9c, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8s7s, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7s6s, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs }

The worst thing is that I folded it. Even I don't know why. I could easily call and try to hit FH. I'm a little surprised. I don't know why I saw only one way here shove or fold?

2. Full Tilt - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $332.35 (VPIP: -, PFR: -, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
Hero (BB): $101.50
UTG: $111.70 (VPIP: 33.68, PFR: 17.21, 3Bet Preflop: 0.20, Hands: 2,504)
CO: $100.00 (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
BTN: $113.65 (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)

SB posts SB $0.50, Hero posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has A♦ 2♥

fold, fold, BTN raises to $2.00, SB calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.00

Flop: ($6.00, 3 players) 2♣ 4♥ A♣
SB bets $4.00, Hero raises to $16.00, fold, SB calls $12.00

Turn: ($38.00, 2 players) Q♠
SB checks, Hero bets $26.00, SB raises to $314.35 and is all-in, fold

SB wins $87.00

It was one of the first hand in the session. I didn't have simple size. He was unknown player with block searching, probably reg. We don't know.

I try to figuring out his range but it's very hard.
Flop:

Villain donks. I've learned that donks bet is most often weak hand, maybe draw, maybe Ax. I decide to reraise for value. Villain calls

Turn:
I was again surprised what happened on the turn. Villain shove.
In this situation I beat only draws. He would be crazy to do it with FD.

Even when I put him on this range:

I'm not in good shape:

Board: 2c4hAcQs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 27.20% 26.99% 0.21% { Ad2h }
MP3 72.80% 72.59% 0.21% { 44, 22, AQs+, A4s, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, AQo }

3. Full Tilt - $1 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: $138.30 (VPIP: 18.88, PFR: 8.83, 3Bet Preflop: 3.26, Hands: 11,804)
CO: $91.70 (VPIP: 18.24, PFR: 9.10, 3Bet Preflop: 3.65, Hands: 23,274)
BTN: $100.00 (VPIP: 14.76, PFR: 11.27, 3Bet Preflop: 4.42, Hands: 23,152)
SB: $58.80 (VPIP: 15.61, PFR: 12.89, 3Bet Preflop: 5.50, Hands: 15,167)
BB: $45.90 (VPIP: 16.33, PFR: 13.32, 3Bet Preflop: 6.35, Hands: 6,253)
Hero (UTG): $100.00

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has K♣ Q♦

Hero raises to $3.00, fold, CO calls $3.00, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($7.50, 2 players) 9♦ T♣ 6♥
Hero bets $5.25, CO raises to $10.50, Hero raises to $23.00, CO calls $12.50

Turn: ($53.50, 2 players) 5♠
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($53.50, 2 players) 9♣
Hero checks, CO checks

Hero shows K♣ Q♦ (One Pair, Nines) (Pre 60%, Flop 31%, Turn 20%)
CO shows J♥ T♥ (Two Pair, Tens and Nines) (Pre 40%, Flop 69%, Turn 80%)
CO wins $50.85

vs 18/9 FtCB 46% RCB 22%

cc 7%

Equity Win Tie
MP2 41.70% 40.23% 1.47% { KcQd }
MP3 58.30% 56.83% 1.47% { QQ-22, AQs+, KQs, AKo }

Flop:

Distribution:

Board: 9dTc6h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 33.26% 31.22% 2.05% { KcQd }
MP3 66.74% 64.69% 2.05% { QQ-22, AQs+, KQs, AKo }

I made a mistake betting this board. It is very drawy and is good to reraise. When I bet, I was focused on his reraise 22%.
I had some notes:
P: l/c 67s mp F: 2KAr minraise w/67s T: K x-x R: 4 mb 8-15 w/76s
F: Q36F minraise vs me w/99 T: J xb R: 8 x/b hu ip

What do we learn from this hand?
He min raises w/TP doesn't fold it to 3bet so next time I will bet against him for value. This hand is very similar to example from Gordons video. When we know that villain reraise w/TP and villain calls flop we can barrel 3 times because he never has a TP or better.

4. Full Tilt - $1 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $118.25 (VPIP: 34.65, PFR: 14.96, 3Bet Preflop: 2.70, Hands: 129)
UTG: $156.65 (VPIP: 26.13, PFR: 9.01, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 113)
UTG+1: $73.75 (VPIP: 19.02, PFR: 9.78, 3Bet Preflop: 2.60, Hands: 375)
MP: $108.05 (VPIP: 10.18, PFR: 4.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.60, Hands: 386)
MP+1: $137.40 (VPIP: 20.65, PFR: 17.99, 3Bet Preflop: 14.40, Hands: 344)
Hero (CO): $122.35
BTN: $150.30 (VPIP: 14.75, PFR: 7.38, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 122)
SB: $133.20 (VPIP: 14.86, PFR: 11.34, 3Bet Preflop: 4.41, Hands: 23,702)

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has 7♠ T♠

UTG calls $1.00, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $7.00, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $6.00

Flop: ($15.50, 2 players) J♠ 5♠ 4♦
UTG checks, Hero bets $12.00, UTG calls $12.00

Turn: ($39.50, 2 players) 7♦
UTG checks, Hero bets $24.00, UTG calls $24.00

River: ($87.50, 2 players) A♣
UTG bets $13.00, Hero calls $13.00

UTG shows 9♣ 9♥ (One Pair, Nines) (Pre 67%, Flop 53%, Turn 68%)
Hero mucks 7♠ T♠ (One Pair, Sevens) (Pre 33%, Flop 47%, Turn 32%)
UTG wins $110.50

villain 27/8 FtCB38

Preflop:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 41.20% 40.22% 0.98% { Ts7s }
MP3 58.80% 57.82% 0.98% { 77-22, A9s-A2s, K9s-K8s, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, AJo-A9o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+ }

About iso sizing. I started to do it bigger to take fish for my one but I think that right now it's good moment to do it for bigger than 5x with hands like T7s. I will back to 5x sizing.

[bFlop:

Board: Js5s4d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 48.80% 48.59% 0.21% { Ts7s }
MP3 51.20% 50.99% 0.21% { 77-22, A9s-A2s, K9s-K8s, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, AJo-A9o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+ }

bet big with FD.

Distribution:

calling range:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Js5s4d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 44.62% 44.49% 0.13% { Ts7s }
CO 55.38% 55.25% 0.13% { 66, 33-22, ... }

Turn:

This is good card for us and now I bet for value. Probably calling range is very similar than calling range OTF

Board: Js5s4d7d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 50.10% 49.90% 0.20% { Ts7s }
CO 49.90% 49.70% 0.20% { 66, 33-22, }

calling range:

River:

the worst river ever

Board: Js5s4d7dAc
Equity Win Tie
MP2 27.78% 27.78% 0.00% { Ts7s }
CO 72.22% 72.22% 0.00% { 66, 33-22, }

villain bets. I'm sure that I'm beaten but this is only $13 to $87. Call and take a note.

It was very tough session. It was very annoying when I had to fold TP, OP or better. I had more folds than I posted.
I'm sure that it would be better. What can I see? Move forward and never give up.

FR:

Graph:

SH:

Graph:

Every cloud has a silver lining
Better session. I was playing very well. I didn't make a lot of mistake. It's wired that yesterday was horrible session and today everything was fine.
I decided to play a little shorter session because of the fact I have to wake up again at 7am. I'm going to Dietary Course AGAIN. Today I've spent there 6hours and was tough. After than I was fucked up. NO NO NO At 11 am I couldn't stand sitting. Tomorrow I have from 8.00 am to 04.30 pm. I don't know how I will handle this hours. Sunday was only one day when I could totally chill out. HEHE. But good thing is the I have the course fortnightly.

DAY 2 (DAY 32)

SCHEDULE WEEK 07.10-12.10

Equity Analysis

1. Full Tilt - $1 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP): $100.15
MP+1: $59.60 (VPIP: 40.77, PFR: 11.54, 3Bet Preflop: 1.54, Hands: 130)
CO: $119.65 (VPIP: 14.11, PFR: 11.41, 3Bet Preflop: 4.37, Hands: 13,809)
BTN: $117.15 (VPIP: 13.11, PFR: 6.95, 3Bet Preflop: 1.40, Hands: 1,029)
BB: $204.20 (VPIP: 12.39, PFR: 10.03, 3Bet Preflop: 5.83, Hands: 341)
UTG: $100.00 (VPIP: 26.47, PFR: 16.91, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 140)
UTG+1: $74.90 (VPIP: 31.03, PFR: 13.79, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 58)

BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.00) Hero has Q♥ K♥

fold, UTG+1 calls $1.00, Hero raises to $5.00, MP+1 calls $5.00, fold, fold, BB calls $4.00, fold

Flop: ($16.00, 3 players) T♠ 8♣ K♦
BB checks, Hero bets $13.00, MP+1 calls $13.00, fold

Turn: ($42.00, 2 players) 9♣
Hero bets $82.15 and is all-in, MP+1 calls $41.60 and is all-in

River: ($125.20, 2 players) 6♣

Hero shows Q♥ K♥ (One Pair, Kings) (Pre 42%, Flop 72%, Turn 61%)
MP+1 shows J♣ A♣ (Flush, Ace High) (Pre 58%, Flop 28%, Turn 39%)
MP+1 wins $122.20

vs 39/10 FtCB 50% 3b=1

Preflop:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 55.30% 53.70% 1.60% { KhQh }
MP3 44.70% 43.11% 1.60% { QQ-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A2o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

Flop:

Board: Th8cKd
Equity Win Tie
MP2 78.75% 77.72% 1.03% { KhQh }
MP3 21.25% 20.21% 1.03% { QQ-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A2o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

Distribution:

Calling range- villain's never folding TP, 2nd, 3rdP, any draw, some times calls w/77:

Board: Th8cKd
Equity Win Tie
MP2 72.22% 70.52% 1.70% { KhQh }
MP3 27.78% 26.08% 1.70% { JJ, 99, 77, }

Turn:

Board: Th8cKd9c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 61.04% 59.08% 1.96% { KhQh }
MP3 38.96% 36.99% 1.96% { JJ, 99, 77, ... }

We don't know how villain react to call. If he is able to call w/2nd Pair. Lets say he is never folding TP and better. He is able to fold 2ndP and worse.

Board: Th8cKd9c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 39.26% 36.22% 3.04% { KhQh }
MP3 60.74% 57.70% 3.04% { 99, TdTs, ...}

villain calling range:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Th8cKd9c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 55.52% 53.41% 2.11% { KhQh }
CO 44.48% 42.37% 2.11% { JJ, 99, 77, ... }

Inventing Scenarios:

Turn:

1. A non ♥

Board: Th8cKdAs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 61.60% 58.39% 3.20% { KhQh }
BU 38.40% 35.20% 3.20% { JJ, 99, 77, }

2. A:h

Board: Th8cKdAh
Equity Win Tie
MP2 69.13% 66.57% 2.56% { KhQh }
BU 30.87% 28.31% 2.56% { JJ, 99, 77,}

our equity are much better because we holds K:hQ:h and we decrease combo of many hands. Interesting

3. K

Board: Th8cKdKs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 87.93% 86.52% 1.41% { KhQh }
BU 12.07% 10.66% 1.41% { JJ, 99, 77, .. }

4. Q

Board: Th8cKdQs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 72.12% 71.20% 0.92% { KhQh }
BU 27.88% 26.96% 0.92% { JJ, 99, 77,.. }

5. J

Board: Th8cKdJd
Equity Win Tie
MP2 61.59% 58.63% 2.96% { KhQh }
BU 38.41% 35.45% 2.96% { JJ, 99, 77, ... }

6. T

Board: Th8cKdTs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 68.92% 66.13% 2.79% { KhQh }
BU 31.08% 28.29% 2.79% { JJ, 99, 77, ... }

7. 8
Board: Th8cKd8s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 73.45% 70.90% 2.55% { KhQh }
BU 26.55% 24.00% 2.55% { JJ, 99, 77, ...}

8. 7

Board: Th8cKd7s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 64.17% 62.86% 1.32% { KhQh }
BU 35.83% 34.51% 1.32% { JJ, 99, 77, ...}

9. bliank <6

Board: Th8cKd4s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 78.09% 76.82% 1.27% { KhQh }
BU 21.91% 20.64% 1.27% { JJ, 99, 77, ... }

Conclusion:
the worst card for us is Ace on the turn. Other cards which inspissate board aren't good for us because completes many draws, combinations of 2pairs etc.
Intresting card is 7 which is dangerous as Ace.

2. Full Tilt - $1 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: $101.20 (VPIP: 18.42, PFR: 8.83, 3Bet Preflop: 1.87, Hands: 540)
MP: $146.50 (VPIP: 14.11, PFR: 11.41, 3Bet Preflop: 4.38, Hands: 13,798)
MP+1: $101.70 (VPIP: 15.57, PFR: 11.06, 3Bet Preflop: 4.12, Hands: 7,982)
CO: $124.90 (VPIP: 20.14, PFR: 7.64, 3Bet Preflop: 1.75, Hands: 146)
BTN: $103.70 (VPIP: 15.25, PFR: 13.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 59)
Hero (SB): $192.50
BB: $127.50 (VPIP: 13.06, PFR: 6.82, 3Bet Preflop: 1.42, Hands: 1,018)
UTG: $101.30 (VPIP: 17.25, PFR: 12.45, 3Bet Preflop: 8.28, Hands: 784)

Hero posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has A♠ K♣

fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.00, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $2.50, fold

Flop: ($7.00, 2 players) 5♣ A♦ 2♣
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $4.20, Hero calls $4.20

Turn: ($15.40, 2 players) 9♣
Hero bets $11.00, UTG+1 calls $11.00

River: ($37.40, 2 players) 8♠
Hero bets $21.00, UTG+1 calls $21.00

Hero shows A♠ K♣ (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 7%, Flop 1%, Turn 0%)
UTG+1 shows A♥ A♣ (Three of a Kind, Aces) (Pre 93%, Flop 99%, Turn 100%)
UTG+1 wins $76.40

vs 19/9

Preflop:
RFI-9%

Equity Win Tie
MP2 48.72% 43.83% 4.89% { AsKc }
MP3 51.28% 46.39% 4.89% { 22+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }

Flop:

Board: 5cAh2c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 77.58% 73.46% 4.12% { AsKc }
MP3 22.42% 18.29% 4.12% { 22+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }

villain cbet 85%
so probably whole range cbets this board

Distribution:

Turn:

Board: 5cAh2c9c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 78.20% 75.06% 3.14% { AsKc }
MP3 21.80% 18.65% 3.14% { QQ-66, 44-33, AdAc, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, 5d5h, 5d5s, 5h5s, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2h2s, AdKd, AdQd, AcQc, AdJd, AcJc, AdKh, AdKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs }

His Cbet turn is 44% so he likes cbet flop a lot and after than pot control.
Probably we don't afraid any river but I didn't want to give him free card with hands Ax

calling range:

Board: 5cAh2c9c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 54.79% 47.23% 7.56% { AsKc }
MP3 45.21% 37.64% 7.56% { 99, AdAc, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, 5d5h, 5d5s, 5h5s, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2h2s, AdKd, AdQd, AcQc, AdJd, AcJc, AdKh, AdKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs }

River:

Board: 5cAh2c9c8s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 53.13% 43.75% 9.38% { AsKc }
MP3 46.88% 37.50% 9.38% { 99, AdAc, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, 5d5h, 5d5s, 5h5s, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2h2s, AdKd, AdQd, AcQc, AdJd, AcJc, AdKh, AdKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs }

I assumed that he is never folding TP. OK maybe sometimes he is but not to sizing like that I guess.

calling range:

Board: 5cAh2c9c8s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 42.31% 30.77% 11.54% { AsKc }
MP3 57.69% 46.15% 11.54% { 99, AdAc, 5d5h, 5d5s, 5h5s, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2h2s, AdKd, AdQd, AcQc, AdJd, AcJc, AdKh, AdKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs }

as we can see are behind when we bet river and villain calls so betting huge on the river is mistake. Probably bet for 1/2psb is also to big. I think that we should bet smaller to get value from not only Ax but maybe QQ, KK?

Board: 5cAh2c9c8s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 53.13% 43.75% 9.38% { AsKc }
MP3 46.88% 37.50% 9.38% { KK, 99, AdAc, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, 5d5h, 5d5s, 5h5s, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2h2s, AdKd, AdQd, AcQc, AdJd, AcJc, AdKh, AdKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs }

Inventing Scenarios{b]

River:

1. K

Board: 5cAh2c9cKs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 46.43% 39.29% 7.14% { AsKc }
MP3 53.57% 46.43% 7.14% { KK, 99, AdAc, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, 5d5h, 5d5s, 5h5s, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2h2s, AdKd, AdQd, AcQc, AdJd, AcJc, AdKh, AdKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs }

2. Q

Board: 5cAh2c9cQs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 24.14% 13.79% 10.34% { AsKc }
MP3 75.86% 65.52% 10.34% { KK, 99, AdAc, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, 5d5h, 5d5s, 5h5s, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2h2s, AdKd, AdQd, AcQc, AdJd, AcJc, AdKh, AdKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs }

3. J

Board: 5cAh2c9cJs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 50.00% 40.63% 9.38% { AsKc }
MP3 50.00% 40.63% 9.38% { KK, 99, AdAc, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, 5d5h, 5d5s, 5h5s, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2h2s, AdKd, AdQd, AcQc, AdJd, AcJc, AdKh, AdKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs }

4. blank

Board: 5cAh2c9c6s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 53.13% 43.75% 9.38% { AsKc }
MP3 46.88% 37.50% 9.38% { KK, 99, AdAc, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, 5d5h, 5d5s, 5h5s, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2h2s, AdKd, AdQd, AcQc, AdJd, AcJc, AdKh, AdKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs }

5. 9, 2, 5

Board: 5cAh2c9c9d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 56.67% 46.67% 10.00% { AsKc }
MP3 43.33% 33.33% 10.00% { KK, 99, AdAc, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, 5d5h, 5d5s, 5h5s, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2h2s, AdKd, AdQd, AcQc, AdJd, AcJc, AdKh, AdKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs }

6. A

Board: 5cAh2c9cAd
Equity Win Tie
MP2 45.65% 39.13% 6.52% { AsKc }
MP3 54.35% 47.83% 6.52% { KK, 99, AdAc, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, 5d5h, 5d5s, 5h5s, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2h2s, AdKd, AdQd, AcQc, AdJd, AcJc, AdKh, AdKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs }

Conclusion:
Any broadway card is bad for us. I'm a little surprised than Ace and King don't helps us. The best card for us are 9, 5, 2 because decrease combination of sets.

3. Full Tilt - $1 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: $102.20 (VPIP: 19.07, PFR: 9.31, 3Bet Preflop: 2.26, Hands: 458)
MP: $138.00 (VPIP: 14.09, PFR: 11.41, 3Bet Preflop: 4.45, Hands: 13,594)
MP+1: $27.00 (VPIP: 43.25, PFR: 10.17, 3Bet Preflop: 1.64, Hands: 546)
CO: $106.45 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 5)
BTN: $131.35 (VPIP: 14.36, PFR: 10.82, 3Bet Preflop: 5.05, Hands: 23,009)
Hero (SB): $206.80
BB: $127.40 (VPIP: 12.59, PFR: 6.83, 3Bet Preflop: 1.72, Hands: 841)
UTG: $100.20 (VPIP: 18.39, PFR: 13.43, 3Bet Preflop: 9.59, Hands: 697)

Hero posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has A♦ K♦

UTG raises to $2.50, UTG+1 calls $2.50, fold, MP+1 calls $2.50, CO calls $2.50, BTN calls $2.50, Hero raises to $17.00, fold, fold, fold, MP+1 calls $14.50, fold, fold

Flop: ($45.00, 2 players) 3♠ 7♥ 8♦
Hero bets $189.80 and is all-in, MP+1 calls $10.00 and is all-in

Turn: ($65.00, 2 players) 5♠

River: ($65.00, 2 players) 2♣

Hero shows A♦ K♦ (High Card, Ace) (Pre 75%, Flop 17%, Turn 7%)
MP+1 shows A♠ 8♥ (One Pair, Eights) (Pre 25%, Flop 83%, Turn 93%)
MP+1 wins $62.00

vs 43/11

even when he's never folding any pair we can easily shove here

Board: 3s7h8d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 23.82% 23.82% 0.00% { AdKd }
MP3 76.18% 76.18% 0.00% { QQ-33 }

4. Full Tilt - $1 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP): $101.50
MP+1: $94.25 (VPIP: 40.78, PFR: 11.65, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 103)
CO: $96.80 (VPIP: 32.50, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 41)
BTN: $100.00 (VPIP: 14.07, PFR: 11.40, 3Bet Preflop: 4.42, Hands: 13,671)
SB: $126.15 (VPIP: 12.67, PFR: 6.83, 3Bet Preflop: 1.57, Hands: 915)
BB: $35.00
UTG: $120.00 (VPIP: 23.64, PFR: 14.55, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 113)
UTG+1: $40.00 (VPIP: 29.03, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has J♦ A♣

fold, fold, Hero raises to $3.00, fold, CO calls $3.00, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($7.50, 2 players) J♥ 7♠ 8♠
Hero bets $6.00, CO calls $6.00

Turn: ($19.50, 2 players) K♣
Hero bets $13.00, CO raises to $31.00, fold

CO wins $43.25

vs 27/13 FtCB 50% 3b 4% CC 29%

Preflop:
Calling range:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 56.71% 53.78% 2.93% { AcJd }
MP3 43.29% 40.37% 2.93% { QQ-22, AQs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

Flop:

Board: Jh7s8s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 68.87% 66.96% 1.92% { AcJd }
MP3 31.13% 29.21% 1.92% { QQ-22, AQs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

Distribution:

Villain is never folding any pair I mean 7x and better, and any kind of draw

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Jh7s8s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 61.17% 58.53% 2.64% { AcJd }
CO 38.83% 36.19% 2.64% { QQ, TT-99, ... }

His raise cbet is 0 (0/7) so probably he is able to slowplay big hand

Trun:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Jh7s8sKc
Equity Win Tie
MP2 57.48% 55.16% 2.32% { AcJd }
CO 42.52% 40.20% 2.32% { QQ, TT-99, ... }

Inventing Scenarios

1. A

Board: Jh7s8sAd
Equity Win Tie
MP2 78.98% 77.42% 1.56% { AcJd }
BU 21.02% 19.47% 1.56% { QQ, TT-99, ... }

2. Q

Board: Jh7s8sQd
Equity Win Tie
MP2 57.81% 55.44% 2.38% { AcJd }
BU 42.19% 39.81% 2.38% { QQ, TT-99, ... }

3. J:s

Board: Jh7s8sJs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 71.90% 69.90% 2.00% { AcJd }
BU 28.10% 26.10% 2.00% { QQ, TT-99, ...}

4. J:c

Board: Jh7s8sJc
Equity Win Tie
MP2 81.37% 79.37% 2.00% { AcJd }
BU 18.63% 16.63% 2.00% { QQ, TT-99, ...}

5. T:s

Board: Jh7s8sTs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 42.60% 38.16% 4.45% { AcJd }
BU 57.40% 52.95% 4.45% { QQ, TT-99, ...}

6. T non ♠

Board: Jh7s8sTh
Equity Win Tie
MP2 50.90% 45.51% 5.38% { AcJd }
BU 49.10% 43.72% 5.38% { QQ, TT-99, ...}

7. 9 ♠

Board: Jh7s8s9s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 19.56% 15.56% 4.00% { AcJd }
BU 80.44% 76.44% 4.00% { QQ, TT-99, ... }

8. 9 non ♠

Board: Jh7s8s9h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 25.77% 20.89% 4.88% { AcJd }
BU 74.23% 69.35% 4.88% { QQ, TT-99, ... }

9. 7/8

Board: Jh7s8s7h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 69.47% 66.47% 3.00% { AcJd }
BU 30.53% 27.53% 3.00% { QQ, TT-99, ...}

10. blank

Board: Jh7s8s3h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 69.99% 67.78% 2.21% { AcJd }
BU 30.01% 27.79% 2.21% { QQ, TT-99, ...}

11. flush card

Board: Jh7s8s5s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 56.88% 55.19% 1.69% { AcJd }
BU 43.12% 41.43% 1.69% { QQ, TT-99, ....}

Conclusion:
The worst cards are 4straight cards.
The best: 7,8, and blanks , not mention about J and A because there are obvious cards

@patszerdonk

Originally posted by patszerdonk
OK, so If we assume your given range (~30% calling range for villain), I'll cbet 3/4 pot size for value, and cbet turn 3/4 pot about 40% of the time (i.e any ten and higger card give us more equity) and some pure bluff (i.e five or lower cards)

That's one of best flop for us, and If you do not cbet such board, then I guess you will cbet in position less than 30% vs Villain?

Originally posted by patszerdonk
Villain stats: 31/24/4
I expect him to have calling range : 31-(24-4) = 11 percent. That's raw estimation and depend on stact size, your image, etc. Something like:

JJ-77,AQo-A9o,KQo-KJo,AQs-A9s,KQs-KTs,QJs

20% calling range is still make sense (because villain have good price on BB) but yours (32%) is way too high IMO.

On the flop, I wont cbet if my equity less than 50% versus him (his fCB is way too low, floater)

No way about 11% calling range in this example.
31-(24-4)= 11 it doesn't work like that...

I don't like idea of betting for value w/AJ here when we don't have fold equity.
Why do you want to fight for this pot? This player isn't great for barreling even with semi bluff. Do you expect to folds any pair when T, K hit OTT? Ok we do it with some more quity but players like that doesn't understand scare cards.

Calling range OTF:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 2sQh2d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 47.54% 40.58% 6.96% { AhJs }
CO 52.46% 45.50% 6.96% { JJ-22, AQs, A2s, KQs, Q7s+, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, KdJd, KhJh, KsJs, AdTd, AhTh, AsTs, KdTd, KhTh, KsTs, JdTd, JhTh, JsTs, Ad9d, Ah9h, As9s, Kd9d, Kh9h, Ks9s, Jd9d, Jh9h, Js9s, Td9d, Th9h, Ts9s, Ad8d, Ah8h, As8s, Kd8d, Kh8h, Ks8s, Jd8d, Jh8h, Js8s, Td8d, Th8h, Ts8s, 9d8d, 9h8h, 9s8s, Ad7d, Ah7h, As7s, Kd7d, Kh7h, Ks7s, Td7d, Th7h, Ts7s, 9d7d, 9h7h, 9s7s, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8s7s, Ad6d, Ah6h, As6s, Kd6d, Kh6h, Ks6s, 9d6d, 9h6h, 9s6s, 8d6d, 8h6h, 8s6s, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7s6s, Ad5d, Ah5h, As5s, Kd5d, Kh5h, Ks5s, 7d5d, 7h5h, 7s5s, 6d5d, 6h5h, 6s5s, Ad4d, Ah4h, As4s, Ad3d, Ah3h, As3s, AQo-A5o, KJo+, Q9o+ }

villain is able to fold smth so when he calls flop we are behind

Turn

Ten OTT:

Board: 2sQh2dTs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 47.60% 43.28% 4.32% { AhJs }
CO 52.40% 48.08% 4.32% { JJ-22, AQs, A2s, KQs, Q7s+, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, KdJd, KhJh, KsJs, AdTd, AhTh, AsTs, KdTd, KhTh, KsTs, JdTd, JhTh, JsTs, Ad9d, Ah9h, As9s, Kd9d, Kh9h, Ks9s, Jd9d, Jh9h, Js9s, Td9d, Th9h, Ts9s, Ad8d, Ah8h, As8s, Kd8d, Kh8h, Ks8s, Jd8d, Jh8h, Js8s, Td8d, Th8h, Ts8s, 9d8d, 9h8h, 9s8s, Ad7d, Ah7h, As7s, Kd7d, Kh7h, Ks7s, Td7d, Th7h, Ts7s, 9d7d, 9h7h, 9s7s, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8s7s, Ad6d, Ah6h, As6s, Kd6d, Kh6h, Ks6s, 9d6d, 9h6h, 9s6s, 8d6d, 8h6h, 8s6s, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7s6s, Ad5d, Ah5h, As5s, Kd5d, Kh5h, Ks5s, 7d5d, 7h5h, 7s5s, 6d5d, 6h5h, 6s5s, Ad4d, Ah4h, As4s, Ad3d, Ah3h, As3s, AQo-A5o, KJo+, Q9o+ }

K OTT:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 2sQh2dKs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 38.57% 26.06% 12.51% { AhJs }
CO 61.43% 48.92% 12.51% { JJ-22, AQs, A2s, KQs, Q7s+, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, KdJd, KhJh, KsJs, AdTd, AhTh, AsTs, KdTd, KhTh, KsTs, JdTd, JhTh, JsTs, Ad9d, Ah9h, As9s, Kd9d, Kh9h, Ks9s, Jd9d, Jh9h, Js9s, Td9d, Th9h, Ts9s, Ad8d, Ah8h, As8s, Kd8d, Kh8h, Ks8s, Jd8d, Jh8h, Js8s, Td8d, Th8h, Ts8s, 9d8d, 9h8h, 9s8s, Ad7d, Ah7h, As7s, Kd7d, Kh7h, Ks7s, Td7d, Th7h, Ts7s, 9d7d, 9h7h, 9s7s, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8s7s, Ad6d, Ah6h, As6s, Kd6d, Kh6h, Ks6s, 9d6d, 9h6h, 9s6s, 8d6d, 8h6h, 8s6s, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7s6s, Ad5d, Ah5h, As5s, Kd5d, Kh5h, Ks5s, 7d5d, 7h5h, 7s5s, 6d5d, 6h5h, 6s5s, Ad4d, Ah4h, As4s, Ad3d, Ah3h, As3s, AQo-A5o, KJo+, Q9o+ }

where did you see more equity on the turn when we hit good card for barrel for us?

Next one.
You want to cbet flop 3/4pot for value when his fold to cbet is just 30%.
I cbet for less than 1/2 psb when villain is able to fold smth lets say 60%?
And I bet as small as possible because I want to win this pot as cheap as possible and make immediate profit for cbetting.

I think your idea of betting for value is just excuses for betting and trying to take this pot vs incorrect player.

Whats that program you are using to make yourself a schedule? I am writing mine by hand at the moment >.<

Hello vonki
yeah writing by hand is good but organize looks great and is so easy in use. You can copy, colored, delete etc. many option and the best thing is that it's for free.
Try by your self!
http://download.cnet.com/Day-Organizer/3001-2124_4-75179446.html?spi=f0798e357a71fa748540c5ffce3589ae

DAY 3 (DAY 33)

FR:

Graph:

It was good session despite of the fact that I didn't make a profit. Just happens. I made some mistakes but overall I'm happy.
Before session I felt sadness. I'm not sure why but I guess, because I've watched most of the Gordon's Course videos. I have few vids to finish the course. Probably in this month I will finish with it and I won't know what next.
It's great to following by Gordons tips. Eeeee. I think that I will purchase new course.
Ok. I have great tips how to work on my game so I shouldn't worry. Lets move forward and do some exercises.

Equity Analysis

1. Full Tilt - $1 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: $42.95 (VPIP: 45.45, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
CO: $102.75 (VPIP: 14.89, PFR: 11.36, 3Bet Preflop: 4.42, Hands: 23,899)
BTN: $137.25 (VPIP: 16.49, PFR: 13.19, 3Bet Preflop: 5.66, Hands: 4,435)
SB: $60.95 (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 20)
BB: $100.00 (VPIP: 20.24, PFR: 11.16, 3Bet Preflop: 1.90, Hands: 11,030)
Hero (UTG): $159.55
UTG+1: $146.50 (VPIP: 14.39, PFR: 10.83, 3Bet Preflop: 5.05, Hands: 23,312)
MP: $100.00 (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 18)

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has Q♦ A♣

Hero raises to $3.00, fold, fold, MP+1 calls $3.00, fold, fold, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2.00

Flop: ($12.00, 4 players) 9♣ A♥ 4♠
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $10.00, MP+1 calls $10.00, fold, fold

Turn: ($32.00, 2 players) 8♦
Hero bets $30.00, MP+1 calls $29.95 and is all-in

River: ($91.90, 2 players) 2♥

Hero shows Q♦ A♣ (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 73%, Flop 14%, Turn 7%)
MP+1 shows A♦ 9♥ (Two Pair, Aces and Nines) (Pre 27%, Flop 86%, Turn 93%)
MP+1 wins $88.90

vs 56/15 FtCb 50 54h

Preflop:

Range:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 62.89% 61.00% 1.89% { AcQd }
MP3 37.11% 35.22% 1.89% { QQ-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, A2o+, K8o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }

Flop:

Board: 9cAh4s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 85.50% 84.44% 1.05% { AcQd }
MP3 14.50% 13.45% 1.05% { QQ-22, AQs-A2s, K2s+, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, A2o+, K8o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }

Distribution:

Calling range:

Board: 9cAh4s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 73.62% 71.10% 2.51% { AcQd }
CO 26.38% 23.87% 2.51% { JJ-TT, QhQs,... }

Turn:

Board: 9cAh4s8d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 71.48% 69.65% 1.83% { AcQd }
BU 28.52% 26.69% 1.83% { JJ-TT, QhQs, ...}

Calling range:

Board: 9cAh4s8d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 59.09% 56.12% 2.97% { AcQd }
BU 40.91% 37.94% 2.97% { 9d9h, 9d9s, ...}

As we can see very easy example but just for practice I analyzed it.

Equity on the turn when we holds:
1. AK

Board: 9cAh4s8d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 60.68% 58.58% 2.10% { AKs, AKo }
BU 39.32% 37.21% 2.10% {...}

2. AJ

Board: 9cAh4s8d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 50.19% 47.38% 2.82% { AJs, AJo }
BU 49.81% 46.99% 2.82% { ...}

3. AT

Board: 9cAh4s8d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 43.70% 40.89% 2.82% { ATs, ATo }
BU 56.30% 53.48% 2.82% { ...}

2. Full Tilt - $1 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $110.00 (VPIP: 17.18, PFR: 14.60, 3Bet Preflop: 5.31, Hands: 5,787)
BTN: $35.00 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
SB: $100.00 (VPIP: 16.50, PFR: 13.11, 3Bet Preflop: 5.51, Hands: 4,623)
BB: $47.00 (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 12.82, 3Bet Preflop: 2.08, Hands: 118)
UTG: $44.90 (VPIP: 18.31, PFR: 10.90, 3Bet Preflop: 3.04, Hands: 6,402)
UTG+1: $175.40 (VPIP: 25.93, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 28)
Hero (UTG+2): $111.10
MP: $67.00 (VPIP: 48.28, PFR: 31.03, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)
MP+1: $122.55 (VPIP: 16.18, PFR: 13.59, 3Bet Preflop: 6.21, Hands: 2,190)

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has K♥ Q♣

fold, fold, Hero raises to $3.00, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $2.00

Flop: ($6.50, 2 players) 5♣ 5♥ J♦
BB checks, Hero bets $3.00, BB calls $3.00

Turn: ($12.50, 2 players) A♥
BB checks, Hero bets $10.00, BB calls $10.00

River: ($32.50, 2 players) A♣
BB checks, Hero checks

Hero shows K♥ Q♣ (Two Pair, Aces and Fives) (Pre 60%, Flop 4%, Turn 9%)
BB shows 3♦ 5♦ (Full House, Fives full of Aces) (Pre 40%, Flop 96%, Turn 91%)
BB wins $30.90

vs 31/14 FtCB 50% 129h

Range ~31%

Equity Win Tie
MP2 53.99% 52.07% 1.92% { KhQc }
MP3 46.01% 44.09% 1.92% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K4s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo-A5o, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

Flop:

Board: 5c5hJd
Equity Win Tie
MP2 41.46% 38.48% 2.98% { KhQc }
MP3 58.54% 55.56% 2.98% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K4s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo-A5o, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

Probably during this hand this player has higher fold to cbet. I guess it was 60%. It's a reason why I cbet here.

Let's look at EV:
3/(3+6.5)=3/9,5=0.31%
our opponent must fold more than 31% to make auto profit.

This range:
JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K4s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo-A5o, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o

it's 420combos. Villain has to fold more than 32% to make a profit. Lets do some maths.
x-32%
420-100%
x-134 combos
Villain has to fold 134combos from this range: JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K4s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo-A5o, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o

148combos look like:

K9s-K6s, K4s, Q9s-Q8s, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A7o-A6o, KTo-K8o, QTo-Q9o, T9o

I think that this player easily fold this range. So with cbetting this board we make autoprofit.

Turn:

Board: 5c5hJdAh
Equity Win Tie
MP2 19.15% 16.21% 2.94% { KhQc }
MP3 80.85% 77.92% 2.94% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, KTs+, K5s, QTs+, J8s+, 65s, AQo-A8o, A5o, KJo+, QJo, J9o+ }

lets do some math again:
betting for $10 villain has to fold more than 44% (10/(10+12.5))

What range does he has to fold to make this bluff profitable?
He has to fold 121 combos to make this BLUFF profitable (276x44/100)

at first glance looks like this Ace is good barrel card but his flop calling range contains a lot of Ax.

Let's do that this player is fit or fold and fold a lot of Ax on the flop:
Calling range FLOP:

149combosx 44/100=65combos must fold

Again it's very hard to find 65combos which he folds

^ 113 combos... we need 84combos

but this bet isn't pure bluff. Pure bluff is of course unprofitable in this case.
We have always some equity
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 5c5hJdAh
Equity Win Tie
MP2 13.46% 13.46% 0.00% { KhQc }
MP3 86.54% 86.54% 0.00% { TT-99,}

what does it mean?
I don't know. In the book Poker Math That Matters author shows EV semi bluffing when we shoves...
Anyone knows how to count EV on the turn when we bets?

This math is so complicated. I have to do this exercise every day to master it.

3. Full Tilt - $1 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $46.30 (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 25.97, 3Bet Preflop: 2.70, Hands: 78)
SB: $122.75 (VPIP: 19.42, PFR: 12.25, 3Bet Preflop: 5.25, Hands: 10,782)
BB: $117.80 (VPIP: 9.57, PFR: 6.38, 3Bet Preflop: 2.33, Hands: 94)
UTG: $100.00 (VPIP: 13.00, PFR: 9.28, 3Bet Preflop: 4.77, Hands: 1,443)
UTG+1: $40.00 (VPIP: 15.65, PFR: 12.92, 3Bet Preflop: 5.50, Hands: 15,205)
Hero (MP): $146.80
MP+1: $126.65 (VPIP: 14.41, PFR: 10.85, 3Bet Preflop: 5.06, Hands: 23,257)
CO: $100.00 (VPIP: 9.93, PFR: 8.28, 3Bet Preflop: 1.47, Hands: 1,032)

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has A♠ J♣

fold, fold, Hero raises to $3.00, fold, fold, BTN calls $3.00, fold, fold

Flop: ($7.50, 2 players) T♠ K♠ 7♠
Hero bets $6.00, BTN raises to $12.00, Hero calls $6.00

Turn: ($31.50, 2 players) 5♥
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($31.50, 2 players) 9♣
Hero checks, BTN checks

BTN shows 2♣ 2♦ (One Pair, Twos) (Pre 52%, Flop 36%, Turn 61%)
Hero mucks A♠ J♣ (High Card, Ace) (Pre 48%, Flop 64%, Turn 39%)
BTN wins $29.95

villain 56/26

I will analyze later this hand. I would like to digest it. It's very hard working and everything is complicated.

DAY 4 (DAY 34)

FR:

Graph:

I'm going to do Gordon Practice right now. I will refresh notes from video Champion Stand Up... and play at 4 tables, focusing mainly on making notes and gathering information and using them.

GORDON PRACTICE
FR:

SH

I played 3 tables and making notes, gathering information and trying to use it in practice.
Red line is nice but poker isn't about red line. Who cares how does your line looks like when you win?
2 times I was a little unlucky so it's happens but I'm worry about other hands like:

Full Tilt - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $65.55 (VPIP: 35.48, PFR: 12.90, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 31)
MP: $108.25 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 28)
CO: $110.85 (VPIP: 29.51, PFR: 19.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 62)
BTN: $41.90 (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
Hero (SB): $102.00
BB: $103.30 (VPIP: 21.21, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 10.34, Hands: 67)

Hero posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has K♣ J♥

UTG calls $1.00, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $6.00, fold, UTG calls $5.00

Flop: ($13.00, 2 players) 9♣ 4♥ T♣
Hero bets $6.00, UTG calls $6.00

Turn: ($25.00, 2 players) 5♣
Hero checks, UTG bets $10.00, Hero calls $10.00

River: ($45.00, 2 players) T♠
Hero checks, UTG bets $9.00, fold

UTG wins $42.75

I've lost confident. I don't know when to barrel. I think that I should bet bigger on the flop and bet again on the turn.

Full Tilt - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: $100.00 (VPIP: 31.51, PFR: 23.29, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 74)
CO: $125.40 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
BTN: $102.20 (VPIP: 33.76, PFR: 17.34, 3Bet Preflop: 0.20, Hands: 2,549)
Hero (SB): $100.00
BB: $70.05 (VPIP: 39.29, PFR: 23.21, 3Bet Preflop: 20.83, Hands: 56)
UTG: $103.20 (VPIP: 20.51, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 79)

Hero posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has Q♦ A♣

fold, fold, CO calls $1.00, fold, Hero raises to $6.00, fold, CO calls $5.00

Flop: ($13.00, 2 players) 6♦ Q♥ 8♦
Hero bets $10.00, CO calls $10.00

Turn: ($33.00, 2 players) 7♣
Hero bets $25.00, CO raises to $109.40 and is all-in, Hero calls $59.00 and is all-in

River: ($201.00, 2 players) 9♠

CO shows 5♣ 4♣ (Straight, Nine High) (Pre 41%, Flop 19%, Turn 100%)
Hero shows Q♦ A♣ (One Pair, Queens) (Pre 59%, Flop 81%, Turn 0%)
CO wins $198.00

vs unknown 1 table player

I know that I played this hand perfectly fine to the turn. I'm not sure callng decision. Again min raise or not shove I would just fold but against shove it what a little wired. I know that 7 isn't blank so maybe I should have just folded it, completes many combos like 87, 76, 54, 98. If this player is able to play hand like TP in this way or bluff? I don't know...

Right now I feel a little shame because I do a lot of work and everything go wrong.
Yeap... you will see again how champion will stand up again hehe

There's a general rule that when you face a raise on the turn, a 1p hand isnt good enough. Base this on gordons way of thinking; You dont have emperical evidence that a 1p hand is ever good here, thus makes it for me an easy fold.

You are absolutely right, not much to say. No excuses, move forward.

Hand 1:
Mising WTSD. But regardless since we are oop, i think we should barrel turn even if his SD is high. Would CB flop like $11 to really discourage low PP's and random GSs to call, and cb turn 25$+ (in 34$ pot).

Hand 2:
Agree with vonki. Especially after u make such decent size turn cb (very good size turn cb imo btw), ur like always beat. U need to be ahead 25% of the time to call (or even more - if he's semibluffing with a draw, he has outs against u), and ur never ahead that often in this spot. Unless u have evidence to proove contrary which u dont.

@tomzyb
yeap... what can I say more? you will play it right

Equity Analysis

1. Full Tilt - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $101.00 (VPIP: 29.07, PFR: 22.09, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 87)
SB: $96.20 (VPIP: 33.74, PFR: 17.35, 3Bet Preflop: 0.20, Hands: 2,553)
Hero (BB): $105.95
CO: $168.75 (VPIP: 20.65, PFR: 16.30, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 93)

SB posts SB $0.50, Hero posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has K♥ Q♣

CO raises to $3.00, fold, fold, Hero calls $2.00

Flop: ($6.50, 2 players) 2♦ 4♥ J♦
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($6.50, 2 players) J♥
Hero bets $4.00, CO calls $4.00

River: ($14.50, 2 players) 5♣
Hero bets $9.00, CO calls $9.00

Hero shows K♥ Q♣ (One Pair, Jacks) (Pre 74%, Flop 16%, Turn 0%)
CO shows J♠ Q♥ (Three of a Kind, Jacks) (Pre 26%, Flop 84%, Turn 100%)
CO wins $30.90

Notes: check back w/TPGK IP
What does it mean?
How does he play hands like PP 55-TT on flop like that?
His cbet range is polerized nuts/semibluffs/bluffs?

What about my play?
villain stealing range:

Assumtion: villain cbet with TP and better + FD

this is check back range:

274combos of hands.

Turn:
our bluff 4/4+6.5=38%
38% of the time this bluff must work to be break even.

calling range:

66 combos...
So from 274 he folds 274-66=208 combos
208/274=75%
so he folds 75% of the time and we need just 38% so our bluff here is auto profit

River:
our bluff:
9/9+14.5=38%
again 38% of the time this bluff must work to be break even
calling range:

48combos
so from 66 he folds 66-48=18combos
18/66=27%

villain folds just 27% of the time. So our bluff is unprofitable

Invention scenaros:
T on the river:
probably is good card to bluff when we assume that villain's calling range is:

10 combos
so from 66 villain folds 66-10=56combos
56/66=84%

villain folds 84% of the time and our bluff has to work 38% of the time

Ace on the river
calling range:

13combos
so from 66 vilain fold 66-13=53%
53/66=80%

villain folds 80% of the time and our bluff has to work 38% so it's auto profitable.

OK... of course our bluff on the river is unprofitable even when villain doesn't holds Jx in his range.

what about situation when we doesn't have K:h
calling range on the turn:

72combos

calling range on the river is the same:

46combos
so from 72 he folds 72-46=26
26/72=36%

Lets change bluff sizing...
we know that this player on the river calls with this range:

bluff sizing (villain folds 28% of the time):
1. 7- 32%
2. 6- 29%
3. 5- 25%

bet for $5 is profitable when villain folds $28 of the time but does he fold to bet like this Ahigh?

2. Full Tilt - $1 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $169.00 (VPIP: 20.73, PFR: 16.58, 3Bet Preflop: 12.00, Hands: 194)
Hero (SB): $100.00
BB: $121.90 (VPIP: 13.57, PFR: 9.90, 3Bet Preflop: 5.07, Hands: 2,337)
UTG: $133.90 (VPIP: 15.54, PFR: 11.12, 3Bet Preflop: 4.22, Hands: 8,492)
UTG+1: $59.75 (VPIP: 39.53, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)
MP: $94.90 (VPIP: 13.15, PFR: 6.46, 3Bet Preflop: 1.71, Hands: 1,656)
MP+1: $61.80 (VPIP: 15.94, PFR: 10.51, 3Bet Preflop: 5.45, Hands: 3,240)
CO: $56.70 (VPIP: 35.48, PFR: 17.74, 3Bet Preflop: 1.25, Hands: 187)

Hero posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has 9♦ 9♠

fold, UTG+1 calls $1.00, MP calls $1.00, fold, fold, BTN raises to $5.00, Hero calls $4.50, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($13.00, 2 players) 6♥ 3♥ J♣
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($13.00, 2 players) J♦
Hero bets $9.50, BTN calls $9.50

River: ($32.00, 2 players) T♣
Hero bets $10.00, BTN raises to $35.00, fold

BTN wins $49.40

villain: 18/15 CB 62%
isolate range:

Board: 6h3hJc
Equity Win Tie
MP2 48.74% 48.41% 0.33% { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KQo }
MP3 51.26% 50.93% 0.33% { 99 }

Flop:
when villain doesn't cbet I assume that his range looks like that:

Turn:
after his check I bet for value
calling range:

River:
Ten is bad card but I want to get value from his 77 and 88 it's a reason why I bet for just 1/3 psb

I guess villain hits TT on the river.

3. Full Tilt - $1 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $86.40 (VPIP: 53.57, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
BB: $63.30 (VPIP: 37.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.66, Hands: 300)
UTG: $100.00 (VPIP: 16.45, PFR: 13.02, 3Bet Preflop: 5.48, Hands: 4,763)
UTG+1: $49.40 (VPIP: 15.33, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 151)
MP: $58.10 (VPIP: 23.27, PFR: 16.98, 3Bet Preflop: 9.84, Hands: 162)
Hero (MP+1): $110.25
CO: $100.00 (VPIP: 14.40, PFR: 10.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 243)
BTN: $44.70 (VPIP: 20.83, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has 9♦ 9♥

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $3.00, fold, fold, SB calls $2.50, fold

Flop: ($7.00, 2 players) 2♥ K♣ 3♠
SB checks, Hero bets $5.00, SB calls $5.00

Turn: ($17.00, 2 players) 6♠
SB checks, Hero bets $10.00, SB calls $10.00

River: ($37.00, 2 players) 4♠
SB checks, Hero checks

Hero shows 9♦ 9♥ (One Pair, Nines) (Pre 55%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
SB shows Q♣ K♦ (One Pair, Kings) (Pre 45%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
SB wins $35.15

villain 65/11 FtCB 36%

Preflop:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 63.66% 63.26% 0.41% { 9d9h }
MP3 36.34% 35.93% 0.41% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K8o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }

Flop:

Board: 2hKc3s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 63.49% 63.38% 0.10% { 9d9h }
MP3 36.51% 36.41% 0.10% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K8o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }

calling range:

Board: 2hKc3s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 56.43% 56.30% 0.13% { 9d9h }
CO 43.57% 43.43% 0.13% { AA, ...}

Turn:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 2hKc3s6s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 58.81% 58.68% 0.14% { 9d9h }
CO 41.19% 41.05% 0.14% { AA, QQ-TT, ...}

River:
http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 2hKc3s6s4s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 26.89% 26.67% 0.22% { 9d9h }
BU 73.11% 72.89% 0.22% { AA, QQ-TT, ...}

so check back on the river is a good option with 99...

3. Full Tilt - $1 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $46.30 (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 25.97, 3Bet Preflop: 2.70, Hands: 78)
SB: $122.75 (VPIP: 19.42, PFR: 12.25, 3Bet Preflop: 5.25, Hands: 10,782)
BB: $117.80 (VPIP: 9.57, PFR: 6.38, 3Bet Preflop: 2.33, Hands: 94)
UTG: $100.00 (VPIP: 13.00, PFR: 9.28, 3Bet Preflop: 4.77, Hands: 1,443)
UTG+1: $40.00 (VPIP: 15.65, PFR: 12.92, 3Bet Preflop: 5.50, Hands: 15,205)
Hero (MP): $146.80
MP+1: $126.65 (VPIP: 14.41, PFR: 10.85, 3Bet Preflop: 5.06, Hands: 23,257)
CO: $100.00 (VPIP: 9.93, PFR: 8.28, 3Bet Preflop: 1.47, Hands: 1,032)

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has A♠ J♣

fold, fold, Hero raises to $3.00, fold, fold, BTN calls $3.00, fold, fold

Flop: ($7.50, 2 players) T♠ K♠ 7♠
Hero bets $6.00, BTN raises to $12.00, Hero calls $6.00

Turn: ($31.50, 2 players) 5♥
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($31.50, 2 players) 9♣
Hero checks, BTN checks

BTN shows 2♣ 2♦ (One Pair, Twos) (Pre 52%, Flop 36%, Turn 61%)
Hero mucks A♠ J♣ (High Card, Ace) (Pre 48%, Flop 64%, Turn 39%)
BTN wins $29.95

villain 61/29

Preflop:

Flop:

not much to say... I made a mistake that I played it so passive...
he have easy shove here...

let's say this is raising and shoving range:

even against tighter range we can profitable shove here: