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NL20 TQs turned into a bluff

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UTG is a fish. CO a reg with standard stats, nothing out of the ordinary.

Hero (BTN): $20.30 (101.5 bb)
SB: $35.65 (178.2 bb)
BB: $20 (100 bb)
UTG: $15.69 (78.4 bb)
MP: $28.37 (141.9 bb)
CO: $24.69 (123.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q T
UTG calls $0.20, MP folds, CO raises to $0.80, Hero calls $0.80, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.60

Flop: ($2.70) T 7 4 (3 players)
UTG checks, CO bets $1.80, Hero calls $1.80, UTG folds

Turn: ($6.30) 8 (2 players)
CO bets $4.20, Hero raises to $17.70 and is all-in

My thinking process:
- Villain probably doesn't bluff with air on the flop because of the fish.
- I have sets on the turn because I call with sets here to keep the fish in the pot.
- Vilain on the turn has either: sets or strong draw or TJ, TQ, TK, TA.
- If i call, then my percieved(and real) range is weak on the river and villain has many options and can play pretty effortless.
- I raise because this way I am pretty sure I fold TK and TA (which would be 16 combos combined). Also I might get value from the draws.
- Villain has only 7 combos of nuts.


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2 replies
Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

you forgot JJ+, also possibly J:h 9:h, J:d 9:d.

i generally don't think that it's a good idea to bluff when you think that villain's range is strong, and i'm not entirely convinced that you can't call either. that said, i guess that this hand isn't strong enough to call river without more specific reads.

as of now i don't really like it... villain also only needs 1/3 or something on his call.
i mean, we know that he should fold AA, but no one likes to fold overpairs, and he might just think that you have a whole lot of random pair+draw hands or whatever.
imo folding should be best and calling might be about ok, i feel that nl25- guys generally just don't have the guts to 3barrel enough bluffs here... and we'll see the river ip, can't be that bad.


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EmanuelC16
Joined: 02.01.2010

Hey Gabi,

Too many assumptions that you can't verify imo. You also can't play against his draws only. His draws have 30% and his other hands have 80% or more. Villain has only 7 combos of nuts is a very bold statement imo and until you can prove that, everything else falls apart.


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