Carbon Poker NL10 6max
Merge, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
Hero (BTN): $9.85 (98.5 bb) (VPIP20/PFR13/3bet3/AF2.8 - 6.3K hands)
SB: $4.62 (46.2 bb)
BB: $11.23 (112.3 bb)
MP: $13.14 (131.4 bb) (VPIP25/PFR12/3bet2/AF2.3/fold flop cbet 40 - 140hands)
CO: $10 (100 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with K
J
MP calls $0.10, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, MP calls $0.30
Flop: ($0.95) J
6 3 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.63, MP calls $0.63
Turn: ($2.21) Q (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $1.47, MP calls $1.47
River: ($5.15) 6 (2 players)
MP bets $5.15, Hero folds
Results:
Spoiler
$5.15 pot ($0.28 rake)
Final Board: J 6 3 Q 6
Hero mucked K J and lost (-$2.50 net)
MP mucked and won $4.87 ($2.37 net)
Pre-Flop: i had 56.14% equity vs his range (vpip25/pfr12)
Flop: i narrow down his range to 66, QJo,JTo, and some flush drawing hand.
Now I have 66.16% vs his range. I cbet 2/3 of the pot, which is kind of my standard cbet amount. (2/3 bet gave him 2.5:1, or ~30%)
Turn: I dont think he have a Queen and I put him on a flush draw, so I second barrel/value bet/protect my hand.
Again 2/3 of the pot gave him 2.5:1, he need to win about 30% to make the call profitable.
In my equilab, I am 61%vs his 39%. it seems like i am giving him enough odds to call.
But if he really had a flush draw, isn't he should only have around 8x2=16% making his flush?
Then the odds is not enough for him to make his call profitable.
Here I am confused if I am giving him enough odds to call.
Should I look at equilab(39%) or the odds for flush draw(16%)???
River: the third club hits the river. He made a pot size donk bet.
I am pretty sure he has a flush, so I just fold.
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