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fold set AA on turn?

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MrTrocks
Joined: 25.03.2006

$0.50 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 20.26, PFR: 13.55, 3Bet Preflop: 3.27, Hands: 871)
BTN: 111.2 BB (VPIP: 36.07, PFR: 3.28, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 62)
SB: 108 BB (VPIP: 77.94, PFR: 33.82, 3Bet Preflop: 6.12, Hands: 136)
BB: 57.78 BB (VPIP: 21.72, PFR: 7.49, 3Bet Preflop: 4.10, Hands: 268)
UTG: 204.74 BB (VPIP: 25.63, PFR: 17.09, 3Bet Preflop: 9.86, Hands: 201)
Hero (MP): 127.46 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♥ A♠ 8♠ J♣

fold, Hero raises to 3.5 BB, fold, BTN calls 3.5 BB, SB calls 3 BB, fold

Flop: (11.5 BB, 3 players) T♥ 3♥ A♣
SB checks, Hero bets 9 BB, fold, SB calls 9 BB

Turn: (29.5 BB, 2 players) 4♠
SB checks, Hero bets 23 BB, SB raises to 95.5 BB and is all-in, Hero ?

villian
wtsd 32 wsd 56
af flop 0,74 turn 0,5
craise turn 0/13
fold cb flop 42 turn 14

its a fold here u agrre? only a str8 makes sense but with this af he often has it or?


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5 replies

Hi,

Since you need to have there 33% equity I would most likely call his shove.
There are not too many hands that include 25xx and likely he can sometimes shove with lower sets or 55 blockers+flushdraw
He is aggressive enough that he can have some semibluffs, so I would most likely b/c turn

best regards,


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MrTrocks
Joined: 25.03.2006

Originally posted by Kaitz20
Hi,

Since you need to have there 33% equity I would most likely call his shove.
There are not too many hands that include 25xx and likely he can sometimes shove with lower sets or 55 blockers+flushdraw
He is aggressive enough that he can have some semibluffs, so I would most likely b/c turn

best regards,

i dont think that he is aggr enough with this stats (0,74 flop, 0,5 turn) and i dont think he will craise here with 55 blockers


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Coach
Kyyberi
Joined: 09.07.2010

If we don't count the rake, you need 28,3% equity to call there. Against a range of 52xx you have almost 24%. So unless you are absolutely 100% sure he has 52xx, you can't fold anymore.

Why don't you bet full pot on the turn?


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MrTrocks
Joined: 25.03.2006

Originally posted by Kyyberi

Why don't you bet full pot on the turn?

dont know..its my standard betsize there. Should make it bigger maybe


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Skodljivec
Joined: 17.12.2011

Hi,

i agree with both replies. Too much equity to fold here. He could have even TTxx waiting for a "safe turn" or something

Regards,

Skod


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