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NL 50 rate my bluff!!

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Yozan
Joined: 01.01.2010

Villain is 10k hands

25/19/4
RFI CO 35
cbet 45/42/44 (overall bet river 36)
fold cbet to raise 60(25),55.67(2/3);fold river overall 56
WTSD 23
c/f OTR 73%

obv we are facing a RIVER NIT!

Hero (BTN): $50 (100 bb)
SB: $53.23 (106.5 bb)
BB: $50.75 (101.5 bb)
CO: $69.78 (139.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with K Q
CO raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.75) J 2 A (2 players)
CO bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

Due to the high fold vs cbet percentage,I can profitably raise here,but my game plan was to steal later streets just to let villain build a bigger pot...The problem was his cbet percentage(on the low side),still judging by the fact villain open's way to much on the CO.
Also,regarding the positions,I will rep only 22 and AJ,because I will always 3b JJ and AA in this scenario

Turn: ($8.75) 7 (2 players)
CO bets $6, Hero calls $6

NOW on this blank,and with my little eq decide to go for a steal OTR,if the flush hits and he bets,or if teh flush misses and V chcks.I don't like raising here because I don't think this guy bluffs to much,and due to the info I got,villain should fold lot of rivers.

Questions:
-raising here is better?he still fold OTT decent,but i don't like Villain 2nd barell stat.
-What about 7 :diamond:,I also don't like this turn card,don't think will gain to much FEq.

River: ($20.75) 8 (2 players)
CO bets $13.50, Hero raises to $30, CO raises to $59.78 and is all-in, Hero folds

Here I respect my game plan and go for a raise,I think the size is good.If I/m not wrong this raise will have to go 50% of the time,Now regarding the info I have on the villain,rate this line pls

Also,I know holding K :heart: even Q :heart: will be obv better,but should I consider this regarding Villain stats?I mean my line is clearly exploitive,the eq I have I consider a bonus.

TY!!


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Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Hey Yozan,

Flop call certainly fine.

I think we should potentially be folding the turn here, given villains cbet stats are low. In theory the call is ok.

If villain is tight on river he might not even cbet his non-flush hands for value, he might just check. In which case we can potentially be bluffing against a range that is exclusively flushes. Folding is best imo. If villain checks we can consider a bluff (that's part of the reason we call turn in theory), but seeing as villain with stronger range may be in x/c mode a decent amount that's one reason why folding turn is good, because we potentially just don't have the river FE.


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