[Closed] nl25 QQ

I think i would go broke here. First i dont think UTG+1 played AA or KK this way although it is possible. He might have A4s or TT there too but that`s about all that beats us, its hard to imagine he could play 45s, 34s, or 64s or T4 from UTG. Other 4x hands make no sense imo.

He could get crazy with some pairs under T, play like this with JJ, AT, flush draws. I dont like this spot as his line looks weird but strong imo as he checkraises in 2 opponents when you 3bet preflop. Although preflop action was weird because of that MP1 guy minraise after limper (wtf, how that donk got such stack?!?!). So i wouldnt be happy but i dont think i could fold this hand there. I would shove this with disgust and hope for best (and expect to be beat by TT quite often :/ ).

I think UTG's preflop range is something like 99-QQ, sometimes KK,
also AKs, AKo.

On the flop I think he does this with TT-KK, AKss. If we decide not to fold we have to push against this range, and he will call with all of it, so I used pokerstove:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

13,860 games 0.016 secs 866,250 games/sec

Board: Ts 4s 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.210% 45.80% 03.41% 6348 472.50 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 50.790% 47.38% 03.41% 6567 472.50 { KcKd, KcKs, KhKs, QQ-TT, AsKs }

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that would make it a clear push, which kind of surprises me.

Imo UTG has no reason to c/r player who has 3-bet pf and still shows a lot of strength on that board. He can´t expect that we fold JJ-AA, so his hand range has to be stronger. That makes it easy fold to me, since he´ll show up a lot TT or 4x, sometimes KK, AA.