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Dare to bet the river for value - a micro LHE adventure

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floaty
Joined: 13.04.2010

ye, I think he calls down fine here actually! :f_biggrin: I'm still surprised ;)

So, monthly update then, february started of really slow, being +-0 for almost 30k hands was really annoying, but it turned out ok from the second half and up. Not very happy about the volume, gonna try to work harder in march :f_cool:

February

The year as a whole is going really great however, so thats nice, hoping to be able to keep this winrate for the rest of my .50-adventure :f_grin:

Anyway, another great day yesterday :f_biggrin:

Three graphs! Pictures and all! :f_biggrin:


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CoreySteel
Joined: 25.10.2006

Hey floaty.

How much time (hours) did it take you for 50k hands?


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floaty
Joined: 13.04.2010

I think on average 550 hands per hour, so round 90 hours, but its depending on what time I'm playing. I might play 9-10 tables at times and sometimes I only play 4 when traffic is lower.


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CoreySteel
Joined: 25.10.2006

Well... 90 hours of poker in a month isn't too shabby at all :)

GL in March!


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floaty
Joined: 13.04.2010

Thanks! :f_grin:

A year ago that kind of volume wouldve been great, was happy if I managed to break 20k hands in a month back then. But I was working full time then, now I have so much "free time" cause I dont work full time, but I need to play to afford living expenses so I cant build my bank roll as fast as I want due to withdrawls. So I'm aiming for 100k this month, gonna go nuts, and hopefully Ill be able to play .50/1 and perhaps even 1/2 by the end of it, and also make more/100 hands. I think my game is good enough to be a winning player at those stakes aswell, was a year ago and I think I'm playing better now so :f_grin:


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floaty
Joined: 13.04.2010

Only managed 3k hands yesterday, but I kinda thought I'de end up around there, had other things to do. Free today though, so gonna go for 5k+ today again :f_cool: still running really good :f_grin:

And I've found a new tv series to watch while grinding :f_grin:


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CoreySteel
Joined: 25.10.2006

Wait what... You play up to 10 tables AND watch TV? :)
I can hardly manage 5 tables


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floaty
Joined: 13.04.2010

Nah, I dont watch tv while playing 9-10 tables, but less than that then yea. Its kinda weird. I think I actually focus better when doing it. I've always been like that. But when playing 9+ tables poker is enough ;)


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FFRRAANNKKIIEE
Joined: 30.12.2010

Hi floaty,

great results,

I started following one FL blog these days too, so I decided to check yours too. It looks great, I will most certainly learn something from you FL crushers because I'm a total FL fish that's for sure (I even have responsible gaming self restriction to play no FL games ) Maybe I could soon change it while reading your blog. :)

Keep up the good work,
and keep us updated :)

Fran


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floaty
Joined: 13.04.2010

Thanks :f_grin: hehe, not sure how much could be learnt from this blog, I'm more a poster of statistic anomalies I think ;) hopefully I'm wrong though

Yesterday was yet another great day :f_confused: when will this good run end... but I only managed 4k hands, this time I really don't have an excuse...

Weird hand that made me kinda confused, and I dont really understand UTGs play on the flop, sure he has a draw here, but not very strong and the A isnt very reliable as an out. I put him on an 78/overpair/set/A6 here, so I was kinda surprised when I saw his hand. A7 never made sense, so when he raised the river I was like :f_confused: hes raising A6 here? and then I went "aha, ofcourse, he slowed 78" which makes sense cause raising might get us both to fold at this time. But I called down cause, well, people do the strangest things with a strong Ax. Micros are like the deep sea fishes, you see all kinds of crazy down there!

PokerStars - $0.25/$0.50 (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

UTG: $20.00
BTN: $8.21
SB: $21.88
Hero (BB): $8.53

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has 5♦ 6♦

UTG raises to $0.50, BTN raises to $0.75, fold, Hero calls $0.50, UTG calls $0.25

Flop: ($2.35, 3 players) 6♠ 3♣ 5♥
Hero checks, UTG checks, BTN bets $0.25, Hero raises to $0.50, UTG raises to $0.75, BTN calls $0.50, Hero raises to $1.00, UTG calls $0.25, BTN calls $0.25

Turn: ($5.35, 3 players) 4♦
Hero bets $0.50, UTG calls $0.50, BTN calls $0.50

River: ($6.85, 3 players) A♣
Hero bets $0.50, UTG raises to $1.00, fold, Hero calls $0.50

UTG shows 7♣ A♥ (Straight, Seven High) (Pre 58%, Flop 20%, Turn 88%)
Hero mucks 5♦ 6♦ (Two Pair, Sixes and Fives) (Pre 42%, Flop 80%, Turn 13%)
UTG wins $8.69

I ususally call a hand like this in BB. I've heard people say its to loose, and 89s+ and what not, but theyre actually almost the same EV-wise, and I think 56 runs in to trouble less often than say 9Ts. Its easy to let go of but has great potential when it hits. Ide rather play this one than a weak Axo, Kxo. And I never cap in this spot so my range is fairly wide here. But I have given up on people actually noticing anything. Its kinda annoying, you spend so much time trying to improve youre game and theyre all like :f_ugly: but I know it will come in handy later on, I hope.

But I think I've become lazy, these last weeks, and I dont bother to adapt my game to players but more to groups of players sorta. Which I know is some sort of preemptive exploitation. But I'm gonna say its ok at micros, its not optimal, but its still ok. Most players play alike, you kinda just have to put them in folders for different types of players, and preemptive or not, if 80% of the population from a certain folder plays in a certain way, and you adapt it to all 100% then youre still ahead most of the time. And the common mistakes made by regs at lower stakes are usually the same by everyone for every group of players, and for the odd plays you just take a note. For instance, a very general read that applies to most "tag-players" on pokerstars 0.25/0.50 is that they dont value bet the river wide enough, and they dont bluff the river enough :f_rolleyes:

But my turn cbet is way low, I dont know why that is, havnt done it on purpouse, its like 67% over 90k hands now... almost the same as my river cbet.


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floaty
Joined: 13.04.2010

So yesterday was bad in volume, but ok in result. today was bad in volume and anything else I can think of, in poker and the useless meta game called life. If you ever decide to quit smoking, do it when youre dead cause life will punish you for it.

Gonna go get no sleep now.


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floaty
Joined: 13.04.2010

Did a sneak peak yet again at .50/1 today and this time I ended up winning :f_biggrin: though I'm not gonna do it again until I have sufficient funds. But from my scouting .50/1 doesnt look that scary, and in theory I probably should be able to keep winning at this limit aswell even though the rake is higher. Its like 0.45BB/100 in additional rake at .50/1 if my calculations are correct, but with good table selection I should be able to keep something close to 1BB/100 as a wr in the long run. I'm guessing Ill be playing .50/1 until I'm at 3/6 (if and when this will happen I cant really say, but you have to have ambition right? :f_grin: ) so there should be enough volume to even it out I recon. The next step is ofcourse 1/2, which I'de like to get to by next month already, though that kinda requires that I dont run to bad... the goal is to, by the end of next month, play 0.25/.50, 0.50/1 and 1/2 only playing 6 tables at once. And having that many tables to choose from good table selection should be doable, and I hope to keep winning here aswell.

From there the next step is to move up to 2/4, leave the micros and play .50/1, 1/2 and 2/4. Which is where I was a year ago :f_biggrin: not sure how much the game has changed since then, but I think my game is better now :f_grin:


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CoreySteel
Joined: 25.10.2006

I don't think there is much difference between 0,25/0,50 and 0,50/1, so you should be fine. But of course you still need a proper BR, because you can't really control variance

And according to PokerStars VIP Calculator, rake is 0,2BB/100 higher at 0,50/1.


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floaty
Joined: 13.04.2010

I don't really know how the vip calculator works, but I never get the same numbers when comparing to the vpps I actually get when I play. According to the vip calculator I should be getting 0.0974vpps/100 hands, which would be a rake of $1.77/100 hands, but the actuall amount I rake per 100 hands is around $1.375 or 2.75BB. And the same goes for 0.50/1 where the calculator says I should be raking $3.74ish but what I actually have been paying in rake is somewhere around $3.2. At 1/2 its closer to what I have recorded by myself, so I'm guessing that its somekind of average, and having more players playing to many hands might cause that value to go up somewhat.

My values compared to the vip calculators values are

0.25/0.50 79% of the vip calculators value 2.75BB/100 instead of 3.54BB/100
0.50/1.00 86%, 3.2BB instead of 3.7
1/2 94% 2.9BB instead of 3.1

the volume I have of 2/4 is to small to bother with, but I guess that at 2/4 you should be fairly close to the calculators value, which is 2.41BB/100, so thats alot lower than the earlier two, and actually lower than 3/6 and 5/T for some reason...


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CoreySteel
Joined: 25.10.2006

Yeah, its probably an average of all the players so... The higher you get, the closer your's and PokerStars' numbers will be. That means that 0,4BB difference is more realistic than 0,2BB.

And yes, 2/4 is a bit lower than 3/6 and 5/10, because of the cap.
You hit cap at 2/4 (5+ players) at 10,42BB pot, at 3/6 you need 16,67BB pot for example. Same thing with 3-4 players.


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floaty
Joined: 13.04.2010

Great day again after a couple of not so good days :f_biggrin:

Behind on hands though :f_frown: will have to do some weekend work I recon. Only managed 18k last week, and this week I'm only at 5k so far.


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floaty
Joined: 13.04.2010

So I only managed 1k hands yesterday :f_frown: went really bad and I decided to take a break. And sometime during this break I found a game called Hearthstone, so I tried it out and then it was 2 am and I was really tired :f_mad:


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floaty
Joined: 13.04.2010

Still early, but I'm kinda sure this will be the hand of the day. Pretty thin vbet :f_cool:

PokerStars - $0.25/$0.50 (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: $6.00
UTG: $5.60
BTN: $13.84
Hero (SB): $6.10

Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has 7♥ 6♥

UTG calls $0.25, fold, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, UTG calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.25, 2 players) 5♣ K♣ 2♥
Hero bets $0.25, UTG calls $0.25

Turn: ($1.75, 2 players) K♦
Hero bets $0.50, UTG calls $0.50

River: ($2.75, 2 players) 5♠
Hero bets $0.50, UTG calls $0.50

Hero shows 7♥ 6♥ (Two Pair, Kings and Fives) (Pre 51%, Flop 31%, Turn 20%)
UTG mucks 4♦ 4♠ (Two Pair, Kings and Fives) (Pre 49%, Flop 69%, Turn 80%)
Hero wins $3.59


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CoreySteel
Joined: 25.10.2006

Standard, nothing to see here, move along.

:)


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floaty
Joined: 13.04.2010

I actually had two straight flushes and one royal flush taking the backseet for this hand this week


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