NL100 deep KQo

On the river, If we have all straights, that's 16 combos. We have 12 combos of KQ. Too many, only want about half that at that raise size.

Does he 3b KJ preflop? I'd guess the average guy doesn't.

I think on the river, his betting range is pretty much capped at 6 combos of sets (AA, TT) and 9 AQ's. Bluffs that make sense are the 6 heartless AK.

So with hero's KQo the K blocker looks kind of useless and really only blocks villains bluff AK's. AJ's would be a better bluff as it blocks his AA combos. This significantly knocks down his bluff catching EV.

And hey, why not just shove 400bb's into his face @ 3x pot and see what he's made of

Disclaimer: shoving 400bb's @ 3x pot is going to lose a lot of money if he ever calls and hero has too many bluffs here. i.e. bluffing all KQ combos.

Originally posted by jules97
Disclaimer: shoving 400bb's @ 3x pot is going to lose a lot of money if he ever calls and hero has too many bluffs here. i.e. bluffing all KQ combos.

Why do you think bluffing all KQ combos would be too many bluffs for a jam? I will let you do the math but it seems like if we have a shoving range of all combos of KJ and KQ it shouldn't be far off. This actually seems like a decent strategy since a) villain pretty much never has the nuts, b) we have the nuts, and c) our K blocker helps prevent villain from bluffcatching with a king blocker (i.e. AK/KK), and I imagine villain doesn't get here with too many Jx hands.

Originally posted by jules97
So with hero's KQo the K blocker looks kind of useless and really only blocks villains bluff AK's. AJ's would be a better bluff as it blocks his AA combos. This significantly knocks down his bluff catching EV.

I think that's faulty. From my analysis KQo is superior as a bluff, as it blocks less of the AK, AJ combos which are the hands we want villain to fold. Otherwise our bluff doesn't make any sense and we'd be better off just folding.

The ratio of AK, AJ : AA, QQ, TT, AQ, KJ is 21:25 when we hold KQo* and 14:25 when we hold AJo* (* mixed the hands up. They're now in correct order)
I think that most players will not fold a set to a "small" raise like in the sample hand.

The idea of shoving isn't very appealing to me. I would only consider using it as a pure bluffing tool to exploit players who bet too often on this river and are capable of folding AQ and perhaps even a set.

I prefer the 4x raise, and I'd add AA and QQ to my value range. Unless facing a mega NIT in which case I see bluff-shoving or folding as the best alternatives.

* edited

For bluffs to value bet on the river for an overbet:
x* (+365+137.5) + (1-x)*(-365) = 0
x = .425

So if hero bet 16 combos for value, that would be 12 bluffs. So yeah, my math is bad, 12 combos looks perfect.

In villains river betting range I didn't have KK and no Jx at all.

AJ blocks his AK the same as KQ, right?

But anyways now I'm even more confused.
So on the river, I have villain betting AQ, AA, TT and some AK's.

If I put in CREV a shoving range for hero of KJ and AJ bluffs, villains EV calling only with AK is 9.6.
If I change the bluffs to the same number of KQ, villains EV is 33.

Shouldn't this be the other way? I don't get it?? Both block AK the same right? Both are 9 combos.... confused.... Both block AQ the same right?

Both don't block TT and only AJ blocks AA which would make bluffing with AJ less EV because it reduces the number of AA combos, villain would bet/fold with? jeez i don't know... i give up :f_confused:

either way looks like they're pretty close

Exploitedly (that should be a word), I'd guess we might get more calls on the river with AA than AK at nl00 after shoving an extra 300 bb. I mean, goddamn if someone called me with AK there at nl100, hats off.

Here's the CREV tree I made if anyone cares

Originally posted by jules97
But anyways now I'm even more confused.
So on the river, I have villain betting AQ, AA, TT and some AK's.

Villain also has QQ. Since it's a block/value bet I also see AJ in his range which is the one reason I'd bluff at all on this river.
Btw of course KQ and AJ both block AK the same. The main reason I choose KQ over AJ as a bluff is that villain has a lot more AJ in his range if we hold KQ and he's probably gonna fold that much more often than any other part of his range. Unless he's very familiar with the blocker concept or a station.

If I put in CREV a shoving range for hero of KJ and AJ bluffs, villains EV calling only with AK is 9.6.
If I change the bluffs to the same number of KQ, villains EV is 33.

You mean you ran AK against AJ, KJ, and then against KQ, KJ?
I think the EV for AK should be the same, right? Unless we play KQ and AJ differently on earlier streets I think.

Shouldn't this be the other way? I don't get it?? Both block AK the same right? Both are 9 combos.... confused.... Both block AQ the same right?

Both don't block TT and only AJ blocks AA which would make bluffing with AJ less EV because it reduces the number of AA combos, villain would bet/fold with? jeez i don't know... i give up :f_confused:

KQ blocks QQ as much as AJ blocks AA so that doesn't change anything. When you shove, KQ only contains more value because more AJ combos will have been able to bet the river.
If you remove AJ from villains range then KQ and AJ contain the same value if I'm not mistaken. This can only be changed if villain splits up the sets in his bet/check range.

Does anyone see an error in my logic?

Originally posted by ETBrooD
The idea of shoving isn't very appealing to me. I would only consider using it as a pure bluffing tool to exploit players who bet too often on this river and are capable of folding AQ and perhaps even a set.

If our range is perfectly polarized on the river, then shoving is the best play; it allows us to get max value with our nuts.

Originally posted by jules97
AJ blocks his AK the same as KQ, right?

Wrong... when we have KQ he has 9 combos of AK (3 aces and 3 kings; 3x3=9), and when we have AJ he has 8 combos of AK (2 aces and 4 kings; 2x4=8). This might clear things up for you?

And, both of you seem too concerned with absolute strength when villain is bluff catching, when in reality what villain should be more concerned with when bluff-catching is blockers. So what we want to do is block hands that block villain from having blockers to our nuts (i.e. we want to block his Jx and Kx two-pair/tptk bluffcatchers more importantly than sets). Does that make sense?

I understand, but I'm not sure if I can agree. The main reason why I don't like the idea of shoving is that we can't have the nuts if we raise 4x. We become extremely exploitable against anyone who knows that. Not only can they start calling a wider range to our 4x range, but they can also start bluff shoving very frequentely with amazing odds. I do see that from bad spewy players, so the good players will definitely be able to do that.

On the other hand we can exploit players who never call anything besides KJ and a few sets to a shove. This is why I recommend not shoving with KJ, ever. If we get called by anything less than KJ, we take a note and move on. I'd rather balance my 4x range with sets and KJ, and bluff shove against those who don't have the guts and/or are too inexperienced to call marginally.

I think it's much better to have a shoving gameplan if we can rep several nuts, so we can balance all of our ranges.

Originally posted by oblioo

Originally posted by jules97
AJ blocks his AK the same as KQ, right?

Wrong... when we have KQ he has 9 combos of AK (3 aces and 3 kings; 3x3=9), and when we have AJ he has 8 combos of AK (2 aces and 4 kings; 2x4=8). This might clear things up for you?

Ah ok, I get it.... I was thinking the Q on the board was the same as a K for some reason. It all make sense now.

And, both of you seem too concerned with absolute strength when villain is bluff catching, when in reality what villain should be more concerned with when bluff-catching is blockers. So what we want to do is block hands that block villain from having blockers to our nuts (i.e. we want to block his Jx and Kx two-pair/tptk bluff catchers more importantly than sets). Does that make sense?

Yeah, I get it. So AJ wins by one combo! 20bb better in an 800bb pot.

I totally overlooked that you can obviously have KJ in both ranges, 4x and shove. It's just very difficult to balance your ranges properly in game, so I guess you'd have to do a lot of detailed preparation for a couple standard spots.

If you all consider villian betting only
Value hands, why do we need to bluff at all?
If he is betting unbalanced he probably doesnt
Defend vs raise balanced so imo we can be
Value heavy

If he is betting balanced or bluff heavy then kqo and ajo
Are blocking his value range so i would call.
I would raise rather jqs and jts together with
Kj

Also the guy is betting 1/2 pot on each street
On super drawy board deep stack so i think he is likely
Not strong and unbalanced

Originally posted by GingerKid
If you all consider villian betting only
Value hands, why do we need to bluff at all?
If he is betting unbalanced he probably doesnt
Defend vs raise balanced so imo we can be
Value heavy

If he is betting balanced then kqo and ajo
Are blocking his value range so i would call.
I would raise rather jqs and jts together with
Kj

Also the guy is betting 1/2 pot on each street
On super drawy board deep stack so i think he is likely
Not strong and unbalanced

+1, I thought KQ can be just a call