Demonic226 HUSNG, Now a proud father!

Originally posted by FFRRAANNKKIIEE
Now I'm curious..

glgl

Just wait and see

Originally posted by tonypmm
I estimate your chance of staying at the top as ~75%, in the top 2 - 96%, top 3 - 99%. (Assuming that 40K SnGs are played at the limit every week, correct me if I'm way off, the fewer the better for you). So let's hope for a $900 bink (the EV is still >$800), gl!

P.S. I learned how exactly BoTP works only just before writing this post There's definitely room for minor ICM tweaks based on how you're running in the block and what the leaderboard shows (i.e. sometimes you need a win to outperform someone, the 2nd place doesn't count); it's like the jackpot SnG theory, except that blocks are 20-100 games long and payouts are way too small.

Haha thanks for the calculations! Could you elaborate how you came up with those numbers or is it just a guess

Yeah I was actually also thinking about that jackpot theory while I was playing, I was actually quite excited when I realized I was binking one after the other. I actually got HU with one other reg like 7 or 8 times and I think I won all but one (poor guy)

P.S Do you have too much time on your hands or something, doing all this time consuming research?

Alas I have a lot of unwillingness to either sleep or play... but still, I'll postpone explaining my guesstimate until some other time as it involves some higher probability theory. The guesstimate depends so heavily on accurate assessment of the total number of blocks at the limit played by the entire field in a half-week (which requires railing the lobby at different hours, not done by me) that it's safe to say that it's close to a pure guess.

Originally posted by tonypmm
Alas I have a lot of unwillingness to either sleep or play... but still, I'll postpone explaining my guesstimate until some other time as it involves some higher probability theory. The guesstimate depends so heavily on accurate assessment of the total number of blocks at the limit played by the entire field in a half-week (which requires railing the lobby at different hours, not done by me) that it's safe to say that it's close to a pure guess.

Hahah that's alright

I'm checking BOP like 10 times a day now, but I'm still in 1st place although one guy came rather close today.

It's necessary for you to check the LB when you're behind and feeling that you're having a potentially hot run. Once you've got to the top, you can only pray because the army of opponents has a much bigger aggregate chance of throwing you down (that however melts quickly as days and hours pass) than you of outperforming yourself. Checking the LB 10 times a day is now as senseless as sweating an all-in race, there's little you can do about it.

The good news is that I won the Low Orbit leaderboard, the bad news is that I'm an idiot. I was on my way for a good score for the High Orbit as well (I had 1326 points with 23 games to go on my block) but I thought the LB's run from Sunday midnight to Sunday midnight, but apparently they run from Saturday to Saturday so my score was forfeited

Didn't you learn to read Tc&Cs twice each back in the euro network times?

'Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity' - Seneka.

Next time, you'll be prepared better

Originally posted by tonypmm
Didn't you learn to read Tc&Cs twice each back in the euro network times?

'Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity' - Seneka.

Next time, you'll be prepared better

Yeah I know right, pretty stupid of me

Aaaaaand another month is over, April is one of many ups and downs. On one hand I ran super hot a few days on Stars which lead me to win the Low Orbit of Neptune last week. But on the other hand I made a really stupid mistake not to check the T&C to know the period that they run which caused me to miss out on a good score at the High Orbit.

The other platforms I play on, Full Tilt and Ongame, I ran quite shit on them, both card distribution and setup wise. However, I'm pretty sure I wasn't completely focused because of this either, I caught myself making really stupid mistakes a lot of times and playing too much like a robot. Which leads me to the point of this "whining paragraph", because again I found myself having a weak mental game. One of my main problems seems to be that my confidence gets shattered quite quickly so I;m going to work on that.

Another thing I have realized is that if I want to make SN by September 1st I will need to change some things. I have decided that I will do it most likely without playing 60s because right now I can't afford those swings because I will have a huge financial commitment in the upcoming future (can't tell yet what, but it's related to the "big news" I talked about a week or so ago).

This all means that I need to grind more on Stars and I have calculated that I need to grind 20 days of 80 games a day, which is not a lot but I need to change a few things for that to happen because I also want to keep combining Full Tilt. In the current setup I would need about 6-7 hrs of grinding to achieve that.

I will try to make things more efficiently by starting to use table-selection software and I will thinking about stacking my tables instead of tiling so I can play more per hour.

The next thing is that I have decided to get rid of my lazy schedule of going to sleep at 1-2am and waking up at 10. From next week on I will follow a strict schedule like this:

- Wake up 8am
- Light breakfast
- Bike 1 hour
- Full breakfast
- Review hands for 30 minutes
- Start grinding at 10am for 3 hrs
- Lunch
- Grind again at 2PM for 2-3 hrs (depending on the day)
- Go to the gym (again depending on the day)
- Dinner
- Last grind of the day around 9.30-10PM until 11-11.30PM
- Sleep before midnight

And now on to the numbers:

1315 games, 1.1% ROI, 2.1% EV ROI

Profits:
$403
$200 FTP bonus
$117 Game Integrity Full Tilt
$900 BOP Pokerstars
$205 Ongame Bonus
$771 RB (all sites combined)

Total: $2597

Hours: 159
ABI: $27.49

(I will add the graph later)

Hey man,

How do you plan to move into the new schedule btw? This is one of the most failed things ever / fitting into schedule /, so it would be interesting to see your plan. Also do you plan on sustaining it like that / the schedule / for a long time and how

Pretty good results btw. GJ

Great month, sir, keep it up!

Originally posted by Demonic226
I have decided that I will do it most likely without playing 60s because right now I can't afford those swings because I will have a huge financial commitment in the upcoming future (can't tell yet what, but it's related to the "big news" I talked about a week or so ago).

Please tell us that it's NOT a wedding (the most stupid 'investment' imo).

Originally posted by PetChoveka
Hey man,

How do you plan to move into the new schedule btw? This is one of the most failed things ever / fitting into schedule /, so it would be interesting to see your plan. Also do you plan on sustaining it like that / the schedule / for a long time and how

Pretty good results btw. GJ

hey,

Nice to see you in my blog!

Uhm I'm not sure if I understand your question, I mean I outlined my schedule in the previous post and I plan to start with that on coming Monday.

I plan to sustain that schedule at least until I reach SN. I think it's doable because I will have 10/11 days off each month and work hard on those days that I'm not off.

Thanks!

Originally posted by tonypmm
Great month, sir, keep it up!

Originally posted by Demonic226
I have decided that I will do it most likely without playing 60s because right now I can't afford those swings because I will have a huge financial commitment in the upcoming future (can't tell yet what, but it's related to the "big news" I talked about a week or so ago).

Please tell us that it's NOT a wedding (the most stupid 'investment' imo).

Thanks! And no it's not a wedding

Dude it looks like your hour has like 90 minutes ♦ Hard to go with that schedule really...one thing that s almost certain is that goin sleep in less thn 30 mins after finishing session is almost impossible...maybe even not possible coz u need some "brain cooldown"...but maybe am wrong, am definitely not a goo example of scheduling the days

GL

Originally posted by MilanBurdych
Dude it looks like your hour has like 90 minutes ♦ Hard to go with that schedule really...one thing that s almost certain is that goin sleep in less thn 30 mins after finishing session is almost impossible...maybe even not possible coz u need some "brain cooldown"...but maybe am wrong, am definitely not a goo example of scheduling the days

GL

Hahaha yes I might need to tweak the morning a bit because that's the most likely time of the day to run into trouble (and right before sleep). Another option would be to do the biking another part of the day but I'm not sure how I feel about that.

I agree with you that we need time to cool our brain down, I usually watch a tv-serie to do that, but those last 40 minutes so I need to figure that out as I go because I need my 8 hrs of sleep so it is essential that I sleep before midnight.

First of the graph from last month:

Originally posted by Demonic226
So how do I plan to get to $100k profits? Here are some short-term goals of how I want to get there.

Milestone 1 (01.05.2014):

- 3% EVROI on $30s stars over 2k games
- Black card on Full Tilt

Milestone 2 (01.07.2014)

- 4% EVROI on $30s stars over 3.5k games
- 1% EVROI on $60s stars over 1k games

Milestone 3 (01.09.2014)

- 2% EVROI on $60s stars over 2.5k games
- SuperNova status on stars

I plan to reach this by working on the following areas (quite general, I still have to work it out):

- HU
- SB play
- work on limp/raise/call ranges at different stack depths
- BB play flat/NAI/AI ranges at different stack depths

- Bubble
- improve call ranges

- Preflop
- Opening ranges/ steal ranges vs different opponent types

- Postflop
- 3b pots/valuebetting

- Mental game
- tiltcard
- identify my tilt triggers and types

So Milestone date number 1 was yesterday, so a little time to review progress and adjust accordingly.

- 3% EVROI on $30s stars over 2k games
Right now I'm at 3.3% EVROI but the sample is just half, so just 1000 games so a semi-fail. Like I said in the previous post, things will change because I will start to grind 80 games/day for 20 days each month. So the monthly target is 1600 games.

Little graph Stars $30s:

- Black card on Full Tilt
This one has actually become a lot harder because the way it works is that you need to have a rolling average of 500 points a day over a period of a 100 days. However, I have been on vacation in February for 2,5 weeks so those 0 point days really keep my average down. In about a week these days will start to disappear from my 100 day average so I will be able to climb towards an average of 500 (currently around 300). To do this I need to accumulate 750 points for 20 days a month but it's going to be really hard to pull that off (that's about 50-55 games a day) because traffic is usually only sufficient during the evening hours, so I might need to grind a few days a month extra for that.

So I will put the Blackcard goal together with the 2nd milestone on July 1st and I will adjust the $30s goal as well (like I said before $60s are out). So it will look like this:

Milestone 2 (01.07.2014)

- 4% EVROI on $30s stars over 4.5k games
- Black Card on Full Tilt

I have been working mostly on HU lately because I think I can still get better there and achieve a greater edge HU. Things that I've been doing include:

- Resteal ranges vs wide openers
- Adjusting ranges vs wide callers
- Adjusting ranges vs aggro restealers

So where am I on the $100 mark?

- I have earned $4900 so far this year so I'm almost at 5% of my $100k goal!

So I mentioned a few times before that I had some big real life news, well now is the time to tell that ♦

I'm becoming a father!! So excited and of course a bit stressed as well.

Actually a lot of people have asked me the following question "So are you still going to continue this poker thing of yours?"

Congrats!

Originally posted by Demonic226
Actually a lot of people have asked me the following question "So are you still going to continue this poker thing of yours?"

You certainly are, as poker is still a very +EV pursuit that, to make things better, allows for spending time with the family while working, unlike a real job.

One thing you should however be inclined to make is the switch to cash games - it's possible to sit out there with losing money when the child requires attention.

Of course buddies with children like MilanBurdych, Gerovit or Tim64 will give you proper advice; I don't have such an experience, it's just not my path

Originally posted by tonypmm
Congrats!

Originally posted by Demonic226
Actually a lot of people have asked me the following question "So are you still going to continue this poker thing of yours?"

You certainly are, as poker is still a very +EV pursuit that, to make things better, allows for spending time with the family while working, unlike a real job.

One thing you should however be inclined to make is the switch to cash games - it's possible to sit out there with losing money when the child requires attention.

Of course buddies with children like MilanBurdych, Gerovit or Tim64 will give you proper advice; I don't have such an experience, it's just not my path

Yes those were my exact thoughts as well, both about it being +EV and perhaps switching to Cash. And I was also thinking of asking those ppl you mentioned, are you a mind reader tony? ♦

Nice and big news indeed.

Congrats, Demonic!

Hey DADDY

Congrats!!!

Big news - enjoy it!

Congrats man, the best news you can get... And pics or it didn't happen ♠_cool: