Nl100 Qq

Hey DarkAwi,

Preflop is fine.

I think these guys stats tell a story here. It may seem at first like he is barreling maniacly every time he raises vs flop cbet. In reality he probably just has a set every time he raises.

If we simply had access to the flop raise-vs-cbet stat I would consider call-flop fold to turn barrel. However can end up being a pretty poor option when we know he barrels 82% of the time. So our option are to call down or to fold immediately on flop. I probably would take the second of those two. It seems tight given the price, but it can be deceptive since opponent is leveraging his stack here.

hi,

What is the raise cbet stat of someone who raises 100% strong hands on flop and never bluffs?
I think it is around 5%, so hero should snap fold here. What is the raise cbet stat of a villian (threshold), such that he is exploiting us with bluffs (vs which raise stats should we bluff catch?)

Originally posted by GingerKid
hi,

What is the raise cbet stat of someone who raises 100% strong hands on flop and never bluffs?
I think it is around 5%, so hero should snap fold here. What is the raise cbet stat of a villian (threshold), such that he is exploiting us with bluffs (vs which raise stats should we bluff catch?)

One thing to keep in mind is that this stat needs to be viewed in the context of cold-call range. For example, if someone has a 100% cold-call stat preflop 6% raise-vs-flop-cbet would actually be pretty wide.

Whereas a guy who is primarily just set-mining - we know he hits his set around 12.5% so even 12.5% raise-vs-flop-cbet could be indicative of an ultra-tight range.

As a rough guide <10% = lots of value hands. >20% = this guy is probably bluffing you a ton.

Although one final thing to mention is that a guy may have a low 5% flop-raise and for some strange reason only ever raise bluffs, so a percentage in itself is not always an accurate indicator of how strong a range is.