[NL5 SH] KQo vs resteal. Flop bluff-raise

Usually there's not much point in bluffing a player on which you have only 38 hands in your database. Without info it's impossible to establish a range for his 3betting.

Assuming he is a good player, you know he's cbetting only aces and draws for value, since he shouldn't be playing this way with a 2nd pair type hand.

Btw I'm not playing that aggro without informations, since it's almost just spewing.

Originally posted by 92Niko
Assuming he is a good player, you know he's cbetting only aces and draws for value

Mm, I'm not too sure. Against myself I would probably Cbet here any missed hand. He might realize that I'm folding all the pockets that didn't hit a set (JJ, TT, 88, etc.) and all the broadway that didn't hit a FD (like my QK). If you consider that one Ace is already on the board and exclude AA/AK from my range, there won't be that many Ace hands there, and I think he will have the needed 33% FE to make a profitable 1/2 pot bluff Cbet.

Hi Th334

The way you approached the math there is correct.

However, I feel that your range estimation is too optimistic. I don't think he will have all those pairs and he may even have even more Ax hands.

So yes, you should try to avoid running big bluffs with marginal equity hands in a spot where the board helps the villain more than it helps us.

Originally posted by Th334

Originally posted by 92Niko
Assuming he is a good player, you know he's cbetting only aces and draws for value

Mm, I'm not too sure. Against myself I would probably Cbet here any missed hand. He might realize that I'm folding all the pockets that didn't hit a set (JJ, TT, 88, etc.) and all the broadway that didn't hit a FD (like my QK). If you consider that one Ace is already on the board and exclude AA/AK from my range, there won't be that many Ace hands there, and I think he will have the needed 33% FE to make a profitable 1/2 pot bluff Cbet.

I'm sorry ♦ I'm Italian, so I probably badly explained what I meant.

I wanted to say that the "good" hands he is cbetting are Ax and draws, which is the "value" part of his cbetting range (though ofcourse draws are still betting for FE).

But ofcourse he's also no-brain cbetting 99% of the times his missed hands beacuse of the FE given by the A on the flop

So he's cbetting: Ax, draws and any missed hand. While imho he's checking with 2nd pair type hands

@Bogdan, Thanks! Yeah, I guess a good rule of a thumb would be to have at least some outs to improve when bluffing in big pots. And I also should remember that fold has always 0EV, which is better than -EV.

@Niko, Oh, I think I see what you did there! Are you saying that we should exclude some pocket pairs from his range, because he might play pot control and check with them? That might be true, but if anything, it would only make our FE worse, so it doesn't really change anything It's still a fold.