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NL2 River straight on paired board

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Lukas619
Joined: 09.06.2012

CO: $1.97 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 44
BTN: $2.12 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 19, 3B: 0, AF: 1.5, Hands: 16
SB: $1.52 - VPIP: 74, PFR: 1, 3B: 0, AF: 1.5, Hands: 76
BB: $1.90 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 3, 3B: 0, AF: 0.3, Hands: 63
Hero (UTG): $2.52

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG with A :club: J :heart:
Hero raises to $0.06, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.06, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.15) 2 :spade: Q :heart: Q :club: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.08, BTN calls $0.08

Turn: ($0.31) T :club: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.18, BTN calls $0.18

River: ($0.67) K :spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.65, BTN raises to $1.80, Hero calls $1.15

OTF I thought it's a decent board to cbet being paired and take down the pot.
OTT having some more equity with a gutshot I 2barrel in case he could have pairs, draws.
OTR is bet/fold a decent line or calling is fine since we have almost 3:1 pot odds?


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4 replies
92Niko
Joined: 13.10.2011

The hand is ok imho.

On the flop, the 1/2 pot cbet is ok since the board is paired, once you get called I expect opponent having a wide range of hands, mainly 2nd pairs, maybe some overcards if he's a floater. I think that if he has trips, he's definitely slowplaying it often.

On the turn I bet 2/3 both for potbuilding in case we complete the draw and for FE since I want him to fold all of his random floats and 2nd pairs. He calls again and that's interesting, it almost certainly means he has some kind of SD value since there are only few draws possible and he's folding all of his pure floats.

On the river you bet 97%, here it could be ok, but be careful that any aware player (not many at NL2) could exploit this. Btw the bet 4value is the only solution. Imho there is a decent amount of 2nd pair type hands that is folding, so you are vbetting just against Qx and maybe some floated AT or KT, not much else. Maybe a smaller size would get looser calls but it's really close.

On the raise, I don't really think you can fold. There are only few comboes of 22, QT and KT admitting he slowplayed twice, so I'm calling.


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I don't like our turn bet. I think check/folding there could save us some money in the long run.

@TS, you say, "I 2barrel in case he could have pairs, draws", but it's not a reason :) He won't have many draws here in the first place, and even if he has a draw, he's most likely calling our small bet, so why do we barrel?

That's what you should be saying instead, "I 2barrel to make him fold pairs and draws," and then think what pairs and what draws, how likely they are, and whether he will actually fold them on this board, against you, given the actions before. There's a big difference between these two ways of thinking.

@92Niko, "potbuilding in case we complete the draw" is the very last reason we should consider :) Especially seeing that we don't have a strong draw: gutshot is hardly worth a call – particularly on a FD board – let alone a bet. It's basically a pure bluff with our 3 outs, so FE should occupy 90% of our mind: turn doesn't hit our perceived range (but it does hit BU's range), so I don't think we have that much FE here.


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KingKas
Joined: 30.06.2012

Turn bet is fine, but riverbet can be bet/fold vs nonwhales.

At best we split vs another AJ, or we lose vs fullhouses.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

River seems tough, but I think it's a bet fold.

I don't expect him to raise QJ/AQ (he would do so on Flop/Turn if he wanted to IMO).

This leaves him mostly with boats, and against this range you are absolutely crushed. (QTs/KQ/TT/22)


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