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NL2 AA commitment plan changed

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Lukas619
Joined: 09.06.2012

MP: $2.98
CO: $2.09
BTN: $2.03
SB: $3.12
Hero (BB): $2.31
UTG: $2.00

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with A :diamond: A :spade:
1 fold, MP raises to $0.06, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.24, MP calls $0.18

Flop: ($0.49) 9 :club: J :club: J :spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $0.47, MP calls $0.47

Turn: ($1.43) T :diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.70, Hero folds

Villain 25/17 from 95 hands

OTF with a SPR of 4 I would surely commit my stack here but when villain snap called my pot cbet and when that ugly turn card comes is it too weak to x/fold?


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3 replies
92Niko
Joined: 13.10.2011

EDIT: Misread the hand LOL

Imho you don't really need to bet that large on a paired board in a 3betted pot. You can also bet 1/2 on each street and still get them all in on the river.

Imho if you bet 1/2 pot on the flop you still get some hands to call, while most hands are folding against a fullpot bet on that board.

C/f is a bit weak, but it is also true that given the fact that he snap calls your fullpot cbet and that he is committing by betting 1/2 pot on the turn, everything becomes sick. In a certain sense, you check the turn either to induce bluffs or to give up, but have a plan!

My idea is that the hand is much more playable when you use smaller sizes.


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He won't have a QK straight there all the time, because why would QK call the flop with a gutshot (provided it's not QcKc, which is only one combo), and he can also be on a flush draw or have pocket QQ. Either way, we still have 4 outs to get a full house and win his stack if he has a straight or a flush comes.

I would probably bet 1/2 flop and turn, and make a crying fold to a raise.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Yeah,

definitely half pot the Flop. The turn is a clear check, you lose to a ton of KQ/JX combos but still this is probably way too strong to fold. He could have plenty of flush draws which called the Flop.

Your read about him snap-calling - It could be strength, it could mean that he has a no brainer call with a flush draw. Snap calling just basically means that his decision is very easy and doesn't require much thought.

I don't think you can necessarily assume he always has JX here.


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