Would you call or fold here?

Only 1 combo of JJ so super unlikely. He doesn't have better than 2 pair here usually.

When he leads into 3 people on this kind of board, then barrels turn big, I think it's less likely he has the FD as I expect him to play slightly more passive, perhaps even c/r the flop/turn.

I think its a maths question based on how many times you expect your opponent to barrel with KJ/QJ which I think is very unlikely, since if they did have the J, they'd probs slow down on the second 5. Think you get shown QQ+ here a lot by someone just looking to play it fast.

Hey,

folding preflop tbh. Villain is 12% o/r overall opening from MP, and we aren't guaranteed absolute position. Fold or 3bet pre.

As played folding turn looks ok - viallian probably quite passive so probably not going crazy with draws and as you say you don't beat much. If you call turn then def. folding to any large river bet, as generally 3 barrels 3way beats TPTK.

stay classy

Originally posted by redrawstump
Hey,

folding preflop tbh. Villain is 12% o/r overall opening from MP, and we aren't guaranteed absolute position. Fold or 3bet pre.

As played folding turn looks ok - viallian probably quite passive so probably not going crazy with draws and as you say you don't beat much. If you call turn then def. folding to any large river bet, as generally 3 barrels 3way beats TPTK.

stay classy

Folding pre is pretty bad against a 12% range

http://gtorangebuilder.com/#equity-calculator_n=2_b=_d=_p077+,QTs+,A8-A9s,JTs,KTs,KJ+,AT+_p1AJo . I wouldn't 3 bet unless I know he's calling them and not exclusively 4 bet cramming or folding, so think it's fine to just call.

Folding flop is bad, would deffo fold turn as his value range is super capped

LOL it's 17 hands, 17 hands....

Folding pre is pretty bad against a 12% range it is 17 hands

folding preflop tbh. Villain is 12% o/r overall opening from MP, and we aren't guaranteed absolute position. Fold or 3bet pre. again 17 hands

if you are trying to help the guy read the hand lol. these comments are just completely useless.

About the hand, ok to make a tight turn fold in my opinion, since we are completely in the dark vs unknown.

Thanks guys .
It's speed poker and don't have reads other than the regs.
So , I guess folding turn is fine vs unknown here.

@crazedtulip yup it's only 17 hands but he's shaping up to be fairly loose/passive preflop. I dunno the exact stats but surely after 17 hands the error on PFR has to be +/- 10 at the most. So can suppose that we are dealing with PFR of 22 max. And if villain is positionally aware then this will be less. As you state equity wise we are doing well vs his range, but if we're flatting pre and we hit tptk then folding to 2 barrells seems like burning money. We need to get to SD to realise our equity edge.
idk I'm probably being results orientated but AJo vs MP always seems to cause difficulty post flop.

Looks like u need to call down and hope for best. Maniac bet like this also.

Folding AJ in CO vs unknown MP open is not a huge mistake at this limit I believe. Don't worry too much about GTO since your opponent needs to play GTO in the first place for this to work, and at 10NL the majority of players haven't even heard of it (especially the fact that this guy is obviously not a reg based on few number of hands played).

As played, villain's turn range are value hands that beat us and FD, and our hand doesn't have enough equity to win against this range. Even on times that he holds the FD and missed, there are times when villain may decide to bluff shove the river and forcing us to fold whether because we see his stats saying he is honest in the river or for whatever reason. So our bluff catcher will not guarantee us money 100% unless we call river shoves 100%.

And yeah the only read we can rely is the fact that he bets huge on the flop and turn against two players. That means he has a strong hand.

Without taking into account all the fancy bits of math etc, which after 17 hands is a bit pointless, even though I know we can only work with what we know.

My thoughts are fairly simplistic:

You played villain like an unknown and assumed he may have better and folded. You put your ego and fancy plays away, trusted your experience and made your move based on that. You are obviously a winner.

My usual move is, if I don't know where I am in a hand I get out....erm, usually!

Last point: Don't bother with GTO at nl10. If you do mention it, most people will think you're talking about GTA!

Good job, well played in my opinion. ♠_cool:

Originally posted by gadget51
Last point: Don't bother with GTO at nl10. If you do mention it, most people will think you're talking about GTA!

well played ♦

Originally posted by ShadDoneWin
Folding pre is pretty bad against a 12% range

Actually it's not, it doesn't matter if you have 48% equity (though that 12% range is not what most 12% RFI ranges will look like anyway) you will lose so much of that equity in postflop spots exactly like the one the guy has posted.

+1 to whoever said fold or 3bet pre.