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NL10 set vs shove donkbet backdoor straigh+flush

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So in this hand a was tilting a bit (lost 2 big pots with 80% odds), so I decided my money is going in on the flop and then just slowplayed to try to induce a bluff. There was no thought process whatsoever though, I just snap called the river.

iPoker - €0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 164.4 BB
UTG: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 19.53, PFR: 15.13, 3Bet Preflop: 5.98, Hands: 353)
MP: 71.5 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 18.57, 3Bet Preflop: 11.39, Hands: 216)
CO: 193.6 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
BTN: 40 BB (VPIP: 18.87, PFR: 16.98, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 54)
SB: 109 BB (VPIP: 38.89, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 37)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9♣ 9♠

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, SB raises to 5 BB, Hero raises to 18 BB, fold, SB calls 13 BB

Flop: (39 BB, 2 players) 6♥ 3♦ 9♦
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (39 BB, 2 players) T♥
SB bets 1 BB, Hero raises to 21 BB, SB calls 20 BB

River: (81 BB, 2 players) J♥
SB bets 70 BB, Hero calls 70 BB

Hero shows 9♣ 9♠ (Three of a Kind, Nines) (Pre 55%, Flop 100%, Turn 100%)
SB shows K♠ A♥ (High Card, Ace) (Pre 45%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%)
Hero wins 206.3 BB
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looking back at this I'm not so sure this was the correct play. Population read says backdoor straight+flush and donkbet means the nuts, we have close to reads on the villain (37 hands, he 3bet KAo once), and I imagine KhAh, KQs, JJ, TT are all in his range. I would maybe expect him to shove AA KK QQ here but not much more.

So is this the correct play or is the correct play folding the river? Should I have been more aggressive on the flop, seeing as there's a flush draw? My thoughts were well it's a 3bet pot so if he has a flush draw he's mostly gonna bet, so I'm probably good.

thanks for the help


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2 replies
cutegoldfish
Joined: 19.11.2009

Hi,

Why did you check the flop? On such a connected board we should bet for value, maybe a little smaller.

As played it's fine.

River is a call, he might have worse 2p or a over pair that played this way it sometimes a bluff. Less often we see a straight or flush or better set. We are at the top end of our range and we also beat some of his value betting range like 2p

Thanks
Xavierfok


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raise river imo

(37 hands, he 3bet KAo once

how many times do you expect him to have AK in 37 hands IP to 3b? Stop looking this stats for <200 hands at least


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