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KJo with nut FD and GS

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Poker Stars, $6.37 Buy-in (100/200 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 5,542 (27.7 bb)
Hero (BB): 4,170 (20.9 bb)
BTN: 3,788 (18.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J K
BTN folds, SB completes, Hero raises to 500, SB calls 300

Flop: (1,000) Q A 3 (2 players)
SB bets 5,042 and is all-in, Hero calls 3,670 and is all-in

Turn: (8,340) 2 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: (8,340) 7 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

SB 60/20 over 5 hands (HUD filtered)

Need 44% equity with no ICM tax.
I give a fairly loose range for him to take this type of action posflop and then we have 52% equity.


Board: A♥Q♥3♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    52.18%  51.52%   0.67% { KhJc }
MP3    47.82%  47.15%   0.67% { KQs, QJs, AJo-ATo, KQo, Ad9h, Ah9d, Ah9s, Ah9c, As9h, Ac9h, Ad8h, Ah8d, Ah8s, Ah8c, As8h, Ac8h, Ad7h, Ah7d, Ah7s, Ah7c, As7h, Ac7h, Ad6h, Ah6d, Ah6s, Ah6c, As6h, Ac6h, KdTh, KhTd, KhTs, KhTc, KsTh, KcTh, QdJh, QhJd, QhJs, QhJc, QsJh, QcJh, QdTh, QhTd, QhTs, QhTc, QsTh, QcTh, Qd9h, Qh9d, Qh9s, Qh9c, Qs9h, Qc9h, Qd8h, Qh8d, Qh8s, Qh8c, Qs8h, Qc8h, JdTh, JhTd, JhTs, JhTc, JsTh, JcTh }


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4 replies
kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010

We are usually a bit better than a coinflip here or just a coinflip. Odds are so-so and given the ICM tax, I think it becomes something like a BE call tbh. I am not a huge fan. We are too deep. Either way-a bit behind or a bit ahead, it's never a spot where we are crushing his range.


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Do you fold? Or do you prefer to call?


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kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010

I prefer to fold, although as I said-it's prolly ok both ways and tbh, I am not sure what's better. It's one of those meh spots.


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randombob
Joined: 18.05.2014

With a limp call pre flop surely his range is wider than that (unless he never raises), any 2 suited, 2 connectors, maybe Ax, Kx??


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