Let's play "Guess Villain's Range"

Overall it's very hard to put plays on range on NL2, but I will try...

CO: $2.00 (VPIP: 21.51, PFR: 18.35, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 288)
BTN: $1.85 (VPIP: 22.89, PFR: 10.84, 3Bet Preflop: 11.54, Hands: 85)
SB: $1.60 (VPIP: 12.86, PFR: 8.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 72)
BB: $1.60
Hero (UTG): $2.13
MP: $2.13 (VPIP: 20.37, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 54)

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has K♦ Q♠

Hero raises to $0.06, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.05, BB calls $0.04
Unk hero has AT+/KJ+/22+, suited broadway and maybe A2s+ and few SC.
SB has PP, AK?, AQ, KQ, maybe few suited broadways/SC or sometimes AJo/KJo...
BB can have ATC, because he is playing with 80bb on NL2, he is very often fish who will call ATC with these odds.

Flop: ($0.18, 3 players) 3♥ 2♣ K♣
SB bets $0.10 - without any reads (donkbet%, fold to cbet%, cbet%) i think he has sets/Kx (value), JJ-88 (clueless what to do) and few FD AQ/AJ/AT/QJ/JT/T9?/98? (bluff).

BB calls $0.10 - he can have very wide range... It's hard to say without any reads, but mostly I see in his range Kx/PP/3x/2x/FD/A5/A4/54.

Hero raises to $0.58 - main problem is SB. If you raise and get action from SB it's rarely worse hand. You don't know if he has KJ in his preflop calling range and he can have sets. Vs 22-33,KTs+,KQo,AdJd,AdTd,QdJd,QdTd,JdTd,AdQd you have around 54% equity assuming that he bet/call KJs-KTs plus not giving him any combo of AK.

Without reads I prefer to call and play smaller pot against wider ranges. If raise, then raise to 0.35$ and fold to aggression assuming that they will call with draws/worse made hands.

BB raises to $1.06 his range is unknown. I have no clue what is his range preflop (he can be nit, he can have 100% VPIP). I don't know how he plays postflop (it can be AA/AK/K2/33 or 88/A4/QTo). It's hard to say what is best option. Obviously when I raise here so big against unk with 80bb I want to get in assuming that he is mega fish, otherwise your high raise doesn't make sense.

That is pretty much what I figured.

SB has never donked -- not enough hands.
OTF I guessed Ace-rag which gets played a TON at NL2, as well as 66-TT
The bet is too small for a set I think. Kx is also possible, but AK would have raised pre.

BB more-or-less the same.

My raise was about 1/2 the remaining stack for each. I'm unlikely to fold anyway, so I give him the opportunity to exit or commit himself. I don't want to pussy-foot around and wait for an A or a club on later streets. If they happen , they happen. I also did not want to just shove, since no worse would call -- this way those mid PPs can call.

I did not expect the raise, but it suits me fine, since I'm (I think) way ahead of his range -- at least way ahead of the range I guessed.

According to Equilab, I'm not as ahead as I thought I was:

Board: 3♥2♣K♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    53.40%  51.45%   1.95% { KdQs }
SB     23.30%  21.80%   1.50% { TT-66, 33-22, 32s, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Qc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Kc8c, Qc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, Kc7c, Qc7c, Jc7c, 9c7c, 8c7c, Ac6c, Kc6c, Qc6c, 8c6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, Kc5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, Ac4c, Kc4c, Ac3c, Kc3c, Ac2c, Kc2c, AJo-A2o, KQo, K3o-K2o, 32o }
BB     23.30%  21.80%   1.50% { TT-66, 33-22, 32s, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Qc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Kc8c, Qc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, Kc7c, Qc7c, Jc7c, 9c7c, 8c7c, Ac6c, Kc6c, Qc6c, 8c6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, Kc5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, Ac4c, Kc4c, Ac3c, Kc3c, Ac2c, Kc2c, AJo-A2o, KQo, K3o-K2o, 32o }

When SB Folds, it gets better:

Board: 3♥2♣K♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    70.14%  68.90%   1.24% { KdQs }
BB     29.86%  28.62%   1.24% { TT-66, 33-22, 32s, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Qc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Kc8c, Qc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, Kc7c, Qc7c, Jc7c, 9c7c, 8c7c, Ac6c, Kc6c, Qc6c, 8c6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, Kc5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, Ac4c, Kc4c, Ac3c, Kc3c, Ac2c, Kc2c, AJo-A2o, KQo, K3o-K2o, 32o }

I'll leave this for a bit to see if anyone else fancies a guess.

Cheers,
VS

range: villain cant have Kc or 2c and
at nl2 bb can have AA/kk/qq.

I just play 'get my money in versus the fishy bb' there anyway. I know I'm ahead nearly always, good enough for me versus less than a stack. If he has a set - nh.

That's how I roll. ♠_evil:

There's a stakes issue here because there's a good chance that this guy's a micromaniac and playing any two. However...

Given that the SB has already called your raise then I think he's playing a fairly wide range and hoping for a flop. AJs-A2s, AJo-A9o, KQs-KTs, KQo-KTo, JQs-J9s, JQo-JTo, 45s+, 22-TT, perhaps T9o, 98o & 78o. AK and AQ aren't out of the question.

After the flop then I'd be tempted to just flat it and see as the donk bet makes me suspicious but if I'm raising then I think 30c-35c would suffice as it means you're going to find out where you are.

The call-reraise play from villain is just bizarre. I think he's either got trips, A3c, A4c, A5c, 45c or Axc. My money's on the ace rag with the paired three or four to a straight.

Judging by the wording of your post though, I'm folding on the reraise because you're going to tell us that he has trip kings.

I'm with SG
But I also think Kxs is probably in his play.
So he hit 2 pair K 3or2 spades or K2hearts.

cheers
Mark
PS I'm fishy enough to think like him!!!

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
According to Equilab, I'm not as ahead as I thought I was:

Board: 3♥2♣K♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    53.40%  51.45%   1.95% { KdQs }
SB     23.30%  21.80%   1.50% { TT-66, 33-22, 32s, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Qc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Kc8c, Qc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, Kc7c, Qc7c, Jc7c, 9c7c, 8c7c, Ac6c, Kc6c, Qc6c, 8c6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, Kc5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, Ac4c, Kc4c, Ac3c, Kc3c, Ac2c, Kc2c, AJo-A2o, KQo, K3o-K2o, 32o }
BB     23.30%  21.80%   1.50% { TT-66, 33-22, 32s, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Qc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Kc8c, Qc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, Kc7c, Qc7c, Jc7c, 9c7c, 8c7c, Ac6c, Kc6c, Qc6c, 8c6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, Kc5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, Ac4c, Kc4c, Ac3c, Kc3c, Ac2c, Kc2c, AJo-A2o, KQo, K3o-K2o, 32o }

You gave SB 18% cards when he plays with 12% VPIP...

IMO his DONKBET range is: 
JJ-88,33-22,AKs,KTs+,AcQc,AcJc,QcJc,AcTc,QcTc,JcTc,Ac9c,Tc9c,9c8c,8c7c,AKo,KQo
- he can 3bet AK in some % of time
- he can have less/more FD
- he can check with JJ-88

When you raise he will fold second pair type hand so you end with...

Board: K♣3♠2♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    60.86%  51.82%   9.04% { 33-22, AKs, KTs+, AcQc, AcJc, QcJc, AcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, AKo, KQo }
MP3    39.14%  30.09%   9.04% { KdQs }

Even if he 3bets AK 100% of time you are not ahead

Board: K♣3♠2♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    52.67%  41.03%  11.64% { 33-22, KTs+, AcQc, AcJc, QcJc, AcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, KQo }
MP3    47.33%  35.69%  11.64% { KdQs }

You raise very high so he can fold worse Kx and then you will be behind.

When SB Folds, it gets better:

Board: 3♥2♣K♣
Equity Win Tie
MP2 70.14% 68.90% 1.24% { KdQs }
BB 29.86% 28.62% 1.24% { TT-66, 33-22, 32s, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Qc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Kc8c, Qc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, Kc7c, Qc7c, Jc7c, 9c7c, 8c7c, Ac6c, Kc6c, Qc6c, 8c6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, Kc5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, Ac4c, Kc4c, Ac3c, Kc3c, Ac2c, Kc2c, AJo-A2o, KQo, K3o-K2o, 32o }

It's his calling or raising range? It's very unrealistic ♦ He will fold A-high (AJ-A4) and most likely second/third pair type hand. Then we get....

Board: K♣3♠2♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    58.98%  54.66%   4.32% { 33-22, 32s, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Qc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Kc8c, Qc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, Kc7c, Qc7c, Jc7c, 9c7c, 8c7c, Ac6c, Kc6c, Qc6c, 8c6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, Kc5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, Ac4c, Kc4c, Ac3c, Kc3c, Ac2c, Kc2c, KQo, K3o-K2o, 32o }
MP3    41.02%  36.70%   4.32% { KdQs }

Lets remove 32o, add AK/K3s/K2s and some worse Kx hands.
Board: Kc3s2c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 48.77% 44.74% 4.04% { 33-22, AKs, K9s+, K3s-K2s, 32s, AcQc, AcJc, QcJc, AcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Qc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Kc8c, Qc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, Kc7c, Qc7c, Jc7c, 9c7c, 8c7c, Ac6c, Kc6c, Qc6c, 8c6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, Kc5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, Ac4c, Kc4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, AKo, K9o+, K3o-K2o }
MP3 51.23% 47.19% 4.04% { KdQs }

Giving him sets/two pairs/AK/K9+ and a lot of FD you have around 50% equity. Even giving him any Kx you get

Board: K♣3♠2♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    38.79%  35.46%   3.33% { 33-22, AKs, K2s+, 32s, AcQc, AcJc, QcJc, AcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Qc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Qc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, Qc7c, Jc7c, 9c7c, 8c7c, Ac6c, Qc6c, 8c6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, 7c5c, 6c5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, AKo, K2o+ }
MP3    61.21%  57.88%   3.33% { KdQs }

It's good equity, but lower than your magic 70%.

These seem like awfully detailed ranges for a situation where you don't have good stats

Here is the full hand:

$0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: $2.00 (VPIP: 21.51, PFR: 18.35, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 288)
BTN: $1.85 (VPIP: 22.89, PFR: 10.84, 3Bet Preflop: 11.54, Hands: 85)
SB: $1.60 (VPIP: 12.86, PFR: 8.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 72)
BB: $1.60
Hero (UTG): $2.13
MP: $2.13 (VPIP: 20.37, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 54)

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has K♦ Q♠

Hero raises to $0.06, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.05, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.18, 3 players) 3♥ 2♣ K♣
SB bets $0.10, BB calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.58, fold, BB raises to $1.06, Hero raises to $2.07 and is all-in, BB calls $0.48 and is all-in

Turn: ($3.36, 2 players) 7♠

River: ($3.36, 2 players) Q♦
Hero shows K♦ Q♠ (Two Pair, Kings and Queens) (Pre 65%, Flop 91%, Turn 100%)
BB shows 5♥ 8♣ (High Card, King) (Pre 35%, Flop 9%, Turn 0%)
Hero wins $3.20

Not what I expected either,
VS

See this is the thing, you're playing zoom and people will just go spastic sometimes, so I know that in general it's good to think about ranges but if you have no good solid stats it's not going to mean much if you're looking for the answer to an exact question.

Also, sorry to advertise, but could anyone seeing this if they have time to look at my recent post I made in called 'Hero fold @ 2nl' which hasn't got any responses yet.

I usually try to reply to a good few other posts for each new post I make.

Sorry again to go off topic but thanks

NP I'll have a look.

Speaking of hero folds:

You are quite right about people going spastic.

In this hand I fold a perfectly good hand to a 3Bet shove.
QTs is the bottom of my 6-Max UTG range, so folding to the shove is reasonable

You'll laugh your ass off when you see what they had

Full Tilt - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $0.73
SB: $1.72
BB: $1.05 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
Hero (UTG): $2.00
MP: $2.16 (VPIP: 34.42, PFR: 29.35, 3Bet Preflop: 9.20, Hands: 282)
CO: $1.92

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has Q♠ T♠

Hero raises to $0.06, MP calls $0.06, CO raises to $1.92 and is all-in, fold, fold, BB calls $1.03 and is all-in, fold, fold

Flop: ($2.23, 2 players) Q♣ J♥ J♦

Turn: ($2.23, 2 players) 7♣

River: ($2.23, 2 players) J♠

Cheers,
VS