NL2 KK - Right fold?

why fold the turn?

I have no info. When he 3bets and takes this line on the flop, he easily has AA QQ in his range. I don't see him leading the turn with jacks or worse. I just don't see what I'm beating apart from a random AQ OOP float occasionally.

I think that is a call on any limit with no info. Here you actually need stone cold read to fold. You should know that your opponent likes to flat 4bets with big pairs and nothing else, never bluffs and takes strange lines like that with the nuts to fold in that spot.

If he has QQ, AA than that should have been standard preflop setup, if he has 22, 33, 3x he is a very loose weak player and that is worth 50bb knowing. Either way his line looks very irrational and when you face that with a strong hand that loses to very small number of hands, more than 50% of which make no sense for him to have, you should just call and find out. You need to be good only 25% of the time so even if you give him boats and some trips AQ is more than enough for you to be able to call. And someone who flats 4bet with 22, A3s should easily have AQ, KQ, TT, JJ etc.

So, I'm being a super NIT folding here?
Awesomeo, what would you say his range is here?
If you could elaborate any more it'd be appreciated.
I just assume, it's a 4b pot and I'm probably dead to QQ AA

I cant believe he's got queens,he would almost certainly check the turn and hope you c bet again but he could just be bluffing or most likely have AQ or KQ which you crush. just call the turn so if he was bluffing he may bluff the river but if he checks the river he will always call with a queen

At NL2, I think it is correct to fold. So many opp plays AA or QQ in this way in FR zoom.

PF, blinds could 3-bet with high pairs. However, when you 4-bet, he just called. I could not remove AA from his range. It could also be KK-JJ and some rare TT. Flop, c/c is a standard reply from opp. Turn, opp bet. It could be either float/semi-bluff with over cards (AKx) line or KK-JJ. If it was not in zoom, I would push and see what he has. In NL2 zoom, he has AA, KK or QQ to bet in turn like this. They would not c/r with AA as you might have a QQ. So if he checked, you could bet half the pot, as he would fold anything but AA, KK or JJ.

However, one thing I would consider is that if his call and bet was too quick on flop and turn, I might call. The board is perfect for a pure bluff.

Yep, super nitty IMO
I don't know his range and nobody does really.
AA, QQ are in his range, sure. Other hands that are stronger than yours are 22,33, 3x and they make no sense for him to have. However lets give him some of them and give him value range of QQ+, 22,33, A3s. We put KK there too because if he flats here AA and QQ there is no reason why he should play KK differently. Same logic for the PP by the way - why 3bet/call 22 and not JJ, but let keep it simple. Another assumption we are making here is that he never 5bet QQ+ so he can have the maximum number of combos that beat you so we are working with the worst case scenario - obviously in practise that is not true and we are up against smaller number of QQ+ combos.

Villain value range - QQ+, 22,33, A3s
If you are familiar with pokerstrategy equilab you can see that this nut range allows for 16 combinations when you discount your KdKc. Your equity vs it is 8%. If you are familiar with how pot odds work you will know that with standard stack of 100bb you need to call roughly 50bb to play for a pot ot 200bb so if you win 25% of the time the EV of your call is 0 (not including the rake which will be 5bb - you need around 28% eqity to beat the rake) . With 8% equity you will not win 25% of the time vs that range so you should fold.

Also you are deeper here so the odds are actually worse since you have around 95 bb behind before the call. So if you assume villain will put the rest of the money in you can calculate that you need to pay 95bb (calling turn and river) to play for around 288 bb pot so you need 35% equity to beat the rake and have EV > 0. With 8% you should obviously fold.

However what happens if we add just a very small number of combos to his range?

if we add just the 12 possible combos of AQ we now have 42% equity so we should call.
If we add just 6 combos of strangely played JJ or other PP we have 32% and should call with 100bb stack and fold deep.
if we add just some gutshots A4, A5 we have 33% and its very borderline fold when deep.

If we add any combination of these it becomes easy call.
if we interpret his strange line as him being a fish/maniac/tilted it is easy call.

So I have to say that you being deep makes the decission closer and you folded correctly if he is never bluffing or overplaying AQ that floated the flop. With normal stack same logic applies but you should be much more inclined to call because he will be more inclined to overplay a pair with only 50bb behind. When deep people tend to get more cautios with 1 pair and mostly call.

- You are deep which favours folding
+ You have one of the stronger hands in your 4bet range (I assume QQ+, AK+) on this board which favours calling
+ Villains line is strange and makes no sense with the nuts which favours calling

So altought the decision is harder than I initially tought I'm still calling. If you do that you will see the nuts but you will also see bluffs and overplays sometimes and you can't be catching them only with fullboats
And what's important is that when you se what he has you should make a note so next time you know what to expect when he donks turn in 4bet pot

awesomeo,

I appreciate your analysis, which is so through. When I'm against a good reg, your line of thinking is what I need.

I want to hear you opinion on the other side of equity. It is NL2 FR zoom. The players are (including me) are really weak. Isn't it -ev if I try to out-smart the opp too deep? By being a nit in this spot, we are bleeding a little, but on the other hand, the opp will pay me more later when we are clearly ahead. In this spot, we are either far ahead or far behind here. Again, if the opp bet the turn so fast, I might call.

Originally posted by awesomeo
Yep, super nitty IMO
I don't know his range and nobody does really.
AA, QQ are in his range, sure. Other hands that are stronger than yours are 22,33, 3x and they make no sense for him to have. However lets give him some of them and give him value range of QQ+, 22,33, A3s. We put KK there too because if he flats here AA and QQ there is no reason why he should play KK differently. Same logic for the PP by the way - why 3bet/call 22 and not JJ, but let keep it simple. Another assumption we are making here is that he never 5bet QQ+ so he can have the maximum number of combos that beat you so we are working with the worst case scenario - obviously in practise that is not true and we are up against smaller number of QQ+ combos.

Villain value range - QQ+, 22,33, A3s
If you are familiar with pokerstrategy equilab you can see that this nut range allows for 16 combinations when you discount your KdKc. Your equity vs it is 8%. If you are familiar with how pot odds work you will know that with standard stack of 100bb you need to call roughly 50bb to play for a pot ot 200bb so if you win 25% of the time the EV of your call is 0 (not including the rake which will be 5bb - you need around 28% eqity to beat the rake) . With 8% equity you will not win 25% of the time vs that range so you should fold.

Also you are deeper here so the odds are actually worse since you have around 95 bb behind before the call. So if you assume villain will put the rest of the money in you can calculate that you need to pay 95bb (calling turn and river) to play for around 288 bb pot so you need 35% equity to beat the rake and have EV > 0. With 8% you should obviously fold.

However what happens if we add just a very small number of combos to his range?

if we add just the 12 possible combos of AQ we now have 42% equity so we should call.
If we add just 6 combos of strangely played JJ or other PP we have 32% and should call with 100bb stack and fold deep.
if we add just some gutshots A4, A5 we have 33% and its very borderline fold when deep.

If we add any combination of these it becomes easy call.
if we interpret his strange line as him being a fish/maniac/tilted it is easy call.

So I have to say that you being deep makes the decission closer and you folded correctly if he is never bluffing or overplaying AQ that floated the flop. With normal stack same logic applies but you should be much more inclined to call because he will be more inclined to overplay a pair with only 50bb behind. When deep people tend to get more cautios with 1 pair and mostly call.

- You are deep which favours folding
+ You have one of the stronger hands in your 4bet range (I assume QQ+, AK+) on this board which favours calling
+ Villains line is strange and makes no sense with the nuts which favours calling

So altought the decision is harder than I initially tought I'm still calling. If you do that you will see the nuts but you will also see bluffs and overplays sometimes and you can't be catching them only with fullboats
And what's important is that when you se what he has you should make a note so next time you know what to expect when he donks turn in 4bet pot

Thanks for the in-depth analysis, really appreciated, thanks for taking the time for such an Awesome reply.

...HOWEVER
I just can't see him having anything like AQ or KQ here, I know he is an unknown but I don't like stacking off without being certain when there are so many more opportunities which are much clearer. I'd say I'm getting bluffed here about 15%, the rest of the time it's QQ or AA.
Also cheers for jumping in too London, as stated it is NL2 FR Zoom and I think perhaps any other variety of poker this would be a call.
I kinda wish I could see what he had now just to add to the discussion!