Donkey fold?

Sorry had some strange network lag and it got double posted, someone please delete one of these

I think his range might be something like TT+, 66, 33, A♠:K♠:, A♠:T♠:. Maybe even 9♠:8♠:. Our equity against this range is ~62% (someone check I calculated correctly ) I would definitely at least call. Shove might not be a bad option either? He has a lot of worse hands in his range but there are also some draws that we have to protect our selves from.

hi, well played.
it's highly unlikely that he has enough bluffs/worse value hands here, specially given the info you posted.

Originally posted by la55i
I think his range might be something like TT+, 66, 33, A♠:K♠:, A♠:T♠:. Maybe even 9♠:8♠:. Our equity against this range is ~62% (someone check I calculated correctly ) I would definitely at least call. Shove might not be a bad option either? He has a lot of worse hands in his range but there are also some draws that we have to protect our selves from.

let's try to break it down:

sets are 9 combos (3 for TT, 3 for 66 and 3 for 33) - against those you have ~9% equity.
the likely monsterdraws (9:s 8:s, 8:s 7:s) are only 2 combos, and against those we actually only have ~52% equity. each other random fd is only 1 combo, against which we have like ~62-64% (unlikely given the action. people tend to play them passively, specially given the multiway dynamic, which means your range should be stronger and they get better pot odds when there's already a caller).
overpairs are 6 combos each (there are 6 combos of JJ, 6 combos of QQ, etc), and we are crushing those with about 90% equity.

now for the hand action...
he is definitely raising his sets.
is he raising FDs? maybe. A:s T:s is not possible (the T:s is on the board). it's possible that he is raising monsterdraws, but that's not enough combos, and most other flushdraws just play passively given that there's already one caller (better odds) and you rep a lot of strength with the large bet multiway.
is he raising overpairs? very doubtful. people rarely raise "mere" overpairs, and they are specially not going to raise this spot (multiway facing a large cbet and a call).

add that to the "read" that he doesn't seem to be very aggressive, and the conclusion is that you're going to be way behind pretty much all the time.