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AA The BIG 11$

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ma6inata100
Joined: 03.07.2011

Do I have a fold on the flop for 41 BB ?

PokerStars - $10+$1|25/50 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 3,000 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
UTG: 2,985 (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 8.70, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
UTG+1: 6,766 (VPIP: 30.30, PFR: 12.12, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
MP: 3,685 (VPIP: 45.45, PFR: 15.15, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
MP+1: 1,470 (VPIP: 21.21, PFR: 3.03, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
MP+2: 1,769 (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 12.12, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 33)
Hero (CO): 2,870
BTN: 3,065 (VPIP: 15.15, PFR: 3.03, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
SB: 3,870 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 34.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)

SB posts SB 25, BB posts BB 50

Pre Flop: (pot: 75) Hero has A♥ A♦

fold, UTG+1 raises to 150, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 370, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 220

Flop: (815, 2 players) 4♠ K♦ Q♠
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 450, UTG+1 raises to 6,396 and is all-in, Hero calls 2,050 and is all-in

Turn: (5,815, 2 players) K♣

River: (5,815, 2 players) 2♠

Spoiler

UTG+1 shows K♥ Q♣ (Full House, Kings full of Queens) (Pre 13%, Flop 73%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows A♥ A♦ (Two Pair, Aces and Kings) (Pre 87%, Flop 27%, Turn 5%)
UTG+1 wins 5,815


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4 replies
Crrrrrrr
Joined: 13.05.2012

Against a tight range for a 30/12:

63.29% 63.13% 0.16% KK-QQ, KQs, AsKs, KsJs, KsTs, AKo, KQo
36.71% 36.55% 0.16% AdAh

I'd broke.


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tzoun
Joined: 02.05.2009

Imo it's ok the range that Crrrrrrr suggest. On the flop he makes a strange move and to me this does not seems like a single pair, it is more if he had it (two-pair or set) or he is on a draw. He overbets the flop and except if I had seen him done something like that before I would fold.

Also I think it would be better if we don't upload the whole hand and just cut it to the place we want to get the answer.

Keep going :)


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Arabadjiev
Joined: 26.06.2008

Ma6inata100,

I think that based on the line which the opponent takes pre-flop, we can decisively exclude all of the monster hands like JJ+, AQo+,AKs+ from his range as I would expect him to 4-bet (unless you have noticed him slowplay earlier with a monster).
Imo he would "just call" a 3-bet with a broader range of hands (e.g. any pair, suited connectors, suited aces, broadway cards).

Flop: According to the all-in move which villain does, I think the most adequate decision is to call him:

Equity Win Tie
51.45% 51.43% 0.02% AdAh
48.55% 48.53% 0.02% 44, KsJs, AsTs, KsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, 8s7s, KQo, JTo

To win such tournaments we need to win these kind of flips (not only once).

Good luck!


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Tiltberger
Joined: 23.06.2005

Hey!

Thanks guys for your equilations! don't ever fold aa there. Just too much draws or worse tps out there!
Its a call!

Greets,
Tiltberger


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