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flopped set with 44

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gabi1986
Joined: 10.10.2009

Hy!
mp fish vpip\pfr 65\16-160H ; bb reg- vpip\pfr 23\18, x\r on flop 14 ,cont turn after r flop 76, wtsd 28 ,Agg freq F4.3\T2.9\R1.6 , 12.8bb\100 - 11k hands
I have no reason to re-raise flop so i just cal, should i go all in on turn? i can,t see any draws in his flop x\r range like 810,56...with that fish between us .
can i ever fold that river?

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $48.33 (96.7 bb)
BB: $50 (100 bb)
UTG: $55.41 (110.8 bb)
MP: $121.48 (243 bb)
CO: $50 (100 bb)
Hero (BTN): $60.83 (121.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 4 4
UTG folds, MP raises to $1.50, CO folds, Hero calls $1.50, SB folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.75) 7 4 9 (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $2.70, BB raises to $8, MP folds, Hero calls $5.30

Turn: ($20.75) T (2 players)
BB bets $14, Hero calls $14

River: ($48.75) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $26.50 and is all-in, Hero


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3 replies
webhunky
Joined: 31.03.2010

Don't think we can ever fold that.
If you're posting this here, I suspect you lost the hand. Just a usual cooler (you would win the same amount next time you are in villain's shoes, so long term it doesn't really matter), forget it and move on :f_drink:


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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

His stats show that he has a bluff range, but i think it is totally different for 3way spot with fish. You will bet value heavy, so usually it makes zero sense to bluff raise when there is big fish to act.

On the turn i would expect to see super rarely bluffs, on such river only missclick bluffs. So if he overplays 2 combos 79s and 6 combos set, then you have a marginal call. He can also have 68s and j8s, which is why i would make nitty fold on river.


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Hi Gabi,

If we look at how the board evolved he must be tilting hard or a spewer to bluff that river.

I mean, our range is full of made hands here so he has to think that we can fold overpairs or even sets/2p to ship that river for 1/2 pot.

I doubt that will happen 25%+ of the time and worse are rarely vbetting.


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