WORK DAY 15 HAND ANALYSIS
$0.5/$1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
Known players:
[tg]BU$51.73:///////;SB$313.00:///////;BB$131.41:///////;MP2$182.73:///////;MP3$106.98:///////;CO (Hero)$182.04:///////;[/tg]
Preflop: Hero is CO with Q:h, J:h.
MP2 folds, MP3 raises to $3.00, Hero calls $3.00, 3 folds, 2 folds, BB folds.
Flop: ($7.5) K:c, 5:s, T:h (2 players)
MP3 bets $5.00, Hero calls $5.00.
Turn: ($17.5) A:d (2 players)
MP3 bets $12.86, Hero calls $12.86.
River: ($43.22) 7:h (2 players)
MP3 bets $33.00, Hero raises to $161.18(All-In), MP3 calls $53.12.
Final Pot: $290.52.
Results follow:
MP3 shows three of a kind, aces(A:s A:c).
Hero shows a straight, ace high(Q:h J:h).
Hero wins with a straight, ace high(Q:h J:h).
I will consider STD ranges for this analysis, we can make a lot of exploitative adjustments based on villains ranges/tendencies, but just trying to understand and develop a feeling for standard range constructions.
MP STD opening range ~:
COvMP STD flatting range ~:
We can see CO flatting range has a little EQ advantage:
That's a pretty tight flatting range from CO, we can put in some KQ there and things, but we need to keep in mind that CO's range is pretty strong there. So let's get to the flop.
KcTh5s:
So CO's EQ goes up, that means his range hits that board pretty hard vs MP range. Altought MP has more better hands like more KK set, more AA, more AK in his range, so his top range is stronger then CO's top range, and his bottom is just really dead(so our air/weak hands are better then his weak hands, but our strong hands are weaker than his). We can visualize this with Equity Distributions(Will Tipton using it a lot):
I think even with the EQ disadvantage vs whole ranges he can get away betting there a lot. We will fold at least 35% on the flop even vs an 1/2 pot bet, which is a pretty good bet sizing with his range, conclusion is he can cbet here very wide and our air hands can't really do nothing, we don't want to raise cause of the fact that he just have more stronger hand then we have, so just going with a calling range on the flop.
He can make a x range with top set, and KJ, Tx i really don't know which performs better. In vacuum a split range is much more better i think, with some giveups, 99trying go for SD, KK, KQ, KJ, Tx x-ing, and betting with AA, AK, TT, KT, GS+, BDFD kinda things. Not that we can go crazy even when he splits he's range so its a pretty okay range construction.
Cbetting range around ~60%:
CO calling range (so we fold around 35-40%):
(fun fact we have around 60% EQ w JJ there, TJ 62% as CO vs cbetting range)
SO he made some money with cbetting there some garbage, but after the flop call our range is very strong:
The turn hits him better ofcourse, cause hi cbeted a lot of random Ax:
With an AQ against our continuation range he got around 43% EQ, so he should be really tight on that turn, if spot that he barrels that really wide for value/some bluff we can just raise turn a lot with a lot of bluffs (or semi balanced/balanced strategy) and get out really well of the situation.
But even if we don't spot that out, and as a std we just call a bunch here and play river accordingly will be pretty profitable for us.
So he might x/c turn with some TP, and some set/2pair combos. CO can have some Tx bluffs if capable if not just x/f a lot.
Betting turn w only AT+ is really ok for UTG there and going with some Tx/random bluffs but really not much bluffing there.
MP turn bet range:
He just got a really narrow range, i don't know if its just better to x all of the hands on the turn as MP.(what you think?)
CO call turn range:
7h rolling off on the river:
If he bets he's whole range i just can't bluffcatch him there with AQ, that's good for him, but if i'm not calling with TPs ha can't vbet AT there, (even if i'm calling he got 53% EQ only). Even can't vbet AK, TT. So he just can bet there AA with a really bad spot if i jam(maybe a fold), and anyway if he x then i will vbet all the hands i call with maybe. So i think he should x river with whole range here!
Vs the bet i'm just calling TT+, cause it got 63% against 2pair+, maybe AK too. Jamming only QJ and maybe i should jam as a bluff 1 AJ combo with which i have a blocker for QJ and AA, so he just can fold some TT, AK typeof hands when i'm on a crazy mood 
If he x's we have an easy time figuring out how to put on BE som AT 2pair there, atleast if we know that he's betting stronger hands and don't know if he will fold or not.
So we can see why just betting around OOP is not a good idea here 
