Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

NL25 zoom KQ

5 Posts
3 Users
0 Reactions
454 Views
LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

CO 22/15
AF:0.7
cb F:100(1)
54h.

OTR I put him on this range(38 combos):
AdAh, AdAs, AhAs, QdQs, 6d6s, 6d6c, 6s6c, AdQd, AsQs, AhJh, AdTd, AhTh, JhTh, Ad9d, As9s, Ah8h, Jh8h, Th8h, Ah7h, 8h7h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, AdQs, AhQd, AhQs, AsQd, AdTh, AdTc, AhTd, AhTc, AsTd, AsTh, AsTc, KdJh, KsJh, KcJh

Flushes(12 combos): AhJh, AhTh, JhTh, Ah8h, Jh8h, Th8h, Ah7h, 8h7h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h

Straights(3 combos):KdJh, KsJh, KcJh

Tree of a kind(7 combos): AdAh, AdAs, AhAs, QdQs, 6d6s, 6d6c, 6s6c

Two pairs(16 combos):AdQs, AhQd, AhQs, AsQd, AdTh, AdTc, AhTd, AhTc, AsTd, AsTh, AsTc, AdQd, AsQs, AdTd, Ad9d, As9s

It's hard for me to have any bluffs , when I raise OTR.
I assume he should fold all his two pairs and three of kind hands. That's about 60% of his range.

What do you think about this bluff?

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2661323
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $54.30
SB: $15.11
BB: $30.57
UTG: $15.23
MP: $23.86
CO: $33.54

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with Q :club: K :heart:
2 folds, CO raises to $0.62, Hero calls $0.62, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.59) 6 :heart: A :club: Q :heart: (2 players)
CO bets $1.01, Hero calls $1.01

Turn: ($3.61) 9 :heart: (2 players)
CO bets $1.72, Hero calls $1.72

River: ($7.05) T :spade: (2 players)
CO bets $3.36, Hero raises to $12.37

P.S. what is the right formula to calculate how many % of the time your raise should work to make it +EV?


Reply
Quote
4 replies
metza
Joined: 28.01.2012

risking 12.37 to win 10.41 and reasonable to assume we never get called by worse so it needs to work 12.37/(12.37+10.41) = 54%

I don't think AQ or better is folding tbh.


Reply
Quote
KingKas
Joined: 30.06.2012

Well, your play can make sense. But it depends on two things, on your line and villain.

If villain is a worse player, you can't assume he will be able to fold two pair or even a set. If villain is tight, then it's a good spot to think about bluffing.

Your story has to make sense. It's a lot about timings, so if you snap call turn and then take superlong to ship river, it's a bit awkward. Then I think you get called quite a lot. If you really turn the nut flush, you probably will wait some time, to decide between the best line to take to get value.

So on the turn, you should already think about, what you do on the river. That way, you won't snap call it either. And then I think versus some tighter regs you will get enough folds.


Reply
Quote
LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

Metza, thank you for calculation.

KingKas, really nice ideas about timings, I never really deeply thought about timing, when I make the move. I concentrated mainly on my opponents timings.

In this hand I was pretty sure that I'm most of the time behind OTT, so if he bets OTR it's super clear that I'm beat, so I had a plan to raise on a lot of rivers depending on the card, his sizing and timing. His 1/2 sizing OTT and OTR didn't look very strong, but he might bet w strong flushes same sizing, because he doesn't need much protection and my range is pretty weak.


Reply
Quote
metza
Joined: 28.01.2012

Originally posted by LuckyManFromLT
Metza, thank you for calculation.

KingKas, really nice ideas about timings, I never really deeply thought about timing, when I make the move. I concentrated mainly on my opponents timings.

In this hand I was pretty sure that I'm most of the time behind OTT.

Yeah I agree, can't we just fold turn then rather than getting fancy otr? Our equity might be ok (eg ~35%) vs his turn betting range but there are 0 river cards where we can be confident we have the best hand. :heart:, :Kx: :Qx: all have reverse implieds for us


Reply
Quote