Croatian BlogBuster - Full-Time Teacher Playing Poker

What`s that site where that last pic is from? Is it one those where you can plan the route you want to run?

Originally posted by NutzAreOk
What`s that site where that last pic is from? Is it one those where you can plan the route you want to run?

This is Runkeeper's site. I'm using this android app to track my running sessions. As far as I know, it's not possible to plan the route, just tracking it...

Nothing new in my yard so have to cry a bit. After 9,5k hands at NL5 I'm 10 buy-ins down, and all that after 20 buy-ins down at NL25/20 and NL16/10. So, good year for me, that's for sure. In last 10 sessions, just one was a winning. That's really sad. Overall, my winrate at NL5 is -9,82 bb/100, so I can easily conclude that the player pool at NL5 is even tougher than NL25.

I should have not post my NL5 graph yesterday because right after the post NL5 monsters started to raise, 3bet, 4bet and 5bet like pros, picking excact spots where I couldn't defend. So, my red line started to go down. Unfotunatelly, the blue one didn't start to go up, yet. Overall, the nightmare continues, the bankroll is melting and my confidence that I can ever achieve something in this cruel game is lower and lower.

No point in taking brake because I think that my game have stayed more or less the same. Can't say that I've spewed alot or something. Sure, there was a situation or two where I could save some money, but most of them were desperate calls with a set when the river card made a flushes possible, or such. The downswing is not a matter of time, anyway, it's a matter of volume. My bankroll is about 785$ atm and I will probably stay at NL5 until reaching 850$, even if it will happen in two or three months, I don't care. Now I just want to continue improving, that's all.

Stay tuned!

I can easily conclude that the player pool at NL5 is even tougher than NL25.

If you apply the same logic that you do at nl25 when you play nl5 then for sure nl5 will be tougher to play than nl25 since people play diferrently.
When going so much lower you have to change your way of thinking too.
They do not bluff if they show some action so respect their agression.

Originally posted by ilioas

I can easily conclude that the player pool at NL5 is even tougher than NL25.

If you apply the same logic that you do at nl25 when you play nl5 then for sure nl5 will be tougher to play than nl25 since people play diferrently.
When going so much lower you have to change your way of thinking too.
They do not bluff if they show some action so respect their agression.

I think I don't apply the same logic, I'm aware of those differences. Just my winrate atm is even worse at NL5 than NL10/NL16/NL20/NL25, so I made that conclusion. ♦ But ironically, I guess.

I know that we can't be fully objective with our play, so maybe it's good to post some hands here and maybe get some thoughts. Is there really such amount of bad luck involved or I am doing something wrong, or both? Here are the biggest loses just from last 2 days where I have played 1.787 hands, but the pattern is probably the same for last 40k hands:

#1 Are two pairs good enough to go broke here? I had a couple of those latelly. Generally, my opinnion is that two pairs are good enough for stacking off on this limit, but in practice, it seems that they are not. Just a variance or should I consider it as the fact?

#2 Just called on the flop with two pairs. I figured out it's ok on this board. I have two pairs, the board isn't that drawy. Should I rather raise? The turn becomes a bit more drawy, so I decided to raise here. From this perspective, I think raise/folding would be the best. During the hand I thought that he might do that with TP. Here my oppinion is that my play was not that bad, except this call on the turn maybe, but it also shouldn't be a huge mistake. So, this is probably a combination of a mistake and bad luck.

#3 With QQ+ I am always stacking off in those situations. I'm not that confident with JJ,TT, or even AK. According to the charts, standard stacking off range here is TT+, AQo+ and AJs+. The SB is a reg. So, I don't see any mistake here. But looking at my database, turns out that stacking off with JJ and TT preflop BB vs SB is not profitable for me, combining NL5-NL25. Furthermore, If I filter my hands to BB vs SB and vice versa where I was all in with AJs-AKs, AQo-AKo and JJ-TT, my winrate is -741,03 bb/100 over 23 hands. Again, just a variance or the fact?

#4 The guy plays 44/22 and he raised me on the flop a couple of times before. If I remember correctly, just one hand before this, he also raised me on the flop. Thinking rationally, despite of not being very confident to stack off with just a pair, I figured out that it's the right play against this guy because he had a bunch of draws, backdoor draws and worse pairs from which I can expect calls. My opinnion about the hand is still the same.

So, these were my bigest loses just last two days. Here are the other big loses this month, where I had a feeling that I didn't make any huge mistake, but was a bit unlucky, and those were just at NL5:

So, stack after stack, just flying away. And those are only the bigges hands. There is a little million of smaller pots where I had the same feeling. I consider myself pretty objective about my play, but this time I'm really not sure because those hands are just coming over and over again. Am I crazy or what? ♦

Along with the fact that the things are going from bad to worse in poker, my grandmother had an heartattack yesterday. She almost died. We spent the evening in the hospital, waitting the doctors to operate her. It was very risky and the doctors prepared us for the worst because all the main veins in her heart were plugged. One of the worse days in my life, complette agony and that strange feeling that the person you love is dieing. Fortunatelly, she managed to survive the operation and her condition is fine now. She got two bypasses in her heart. I hope that everything will be ok. My mother, father, brother and me were completelly destroyed yesterday, so I'm still in shock. I experienced the moments of truth, where nothing is important, you wish just one thing and would give everything else for that one. Maybe it's time to stop for a bit and reevaluate things, in life and poker. Maybe it's time to adjust points of view.

I was curious about your target bankroll btw but forgot to ask earlier. Your target was a very odd number. Was there any reasoning behind it?

Originally posted by vonki
I was curious about your target bankroll btw but forgot to ask earlier. Your target was a very odd number. Was there any reasoning behind it?

Actually, it's simple. I started the challenge with all the bankroll I had back then. Since the target have to be at least 5 times bigger than the starting bankroll, I just multiplied my starting bankroll by 5 and get that freaky number. ♦ Maybe I should quit the challenge, btw., because before I started it, I had pretty good results and as soon as I started it, I run into the biggest downsing I've ever had. ♦ I suspect that it's because of the challenge. Any comments on my previous post, btw? How do you recognize are you experiencing the bad variance or are you just doing something wrong? You are one of the players I'm tracking here who seems to never have any bad runs. I'm a bit jelaous.

Haha. It's cuz micros are easy I have been experiencing swings in the higher games though.

But just looking quickly at the hands, there are spots where I def am not herocalling as lightly as you do and in fact make hero folds. Could have saved yourself a few buyins. One example is the A7o, there is no way he's showing worse, there are way more combos that beat you (AT, AJ, 89, KQ). Shoves or potbets is usually supernutted hands, so I'm never hero'ing except if I have a strong 2p+. Same with your Kh flush. No way does he ever shove for that amount with a Qh flush. You are making a >100bb call otr. Qh would just call your raise, not shove another 100bb over it. As unlikely as it is he has a str8 flush, there's 2 combos, Qh8h and 7h8h both of which are in his range. Unless CO if a total maniac fish I'm hero folding all day. If I was betting and he shoved, i might consider calling. But you raised HIS bet, and he still decides to put another 100bb in the middle... just don't see that happening too often with Qh.

Originally posted by vonki
Haha. It's cuz micros are easy I have been experiencing swings in the higher games though.

But just looking quickly at the hands, there are spots where I def am not herocalling as lightly as you do and in fact make hero folds. Could have saved yourself a few buyins. One example is the A7o, there is no way he's showing worse, there are way more combos that beat you (AT, AJ, 89, KQ). Shoves or potbets is usually supernutted hands, so I'm never hero'ing except if I have a strong 2p+. Same with your Kh flush. No way does he ever shove for that amount with a Qh flush. You are making a >100bb call otr. Qh would just call your raise, not shove another 100bb over it. As unlikely as it is he has a str8 flush, there's 2 combos, Qh8h and 7h8h both of which are in his range. Unless CO if a total maniac fish I'm hero folding all day. If I was betting and he shoved, i might consider calling. But you raised HIS bet, and he still decides to put another 100bb in the middle... just don't see that happening too often with Qh.

Thank you! Yeah, it does seem that in some hands I called too lightlly. I've allready mentioned that in the comment of A7o hand. Probably I'm underestimating those NL5 guys a bit. The thing is that I have an impression that there is not a big difference in their aggression in comparison with NL10/16/25 players' aggression. In the sample size I have (about 10k hands) I'm experiencing more raises, 3bets, 4bets and shoves than at a higher limits, both preflop and postflop. May be that it's just a sample issue.

NL2 and NL5 players are the most honest ones in poker. They have so many tells that tell you exactly what they have. If you have a HUD that nicely shows their style aswell, it's a piece of cake to soulread them really.

Originally posted by vonki
NL2 and NL5 players are the most honest ones in poker. They have so many tells that tell you exactly what they have. If you have a HUD that nicely shows their style aswell, it's a piece of cake to soulread them really.

Guess I'm not good at soulreading.

sorry to hear about your grandma
vonki has hit nail on head about player pool at nl5 being honest they are very transparent
review weasels population read video

Originally posted by seacat22
sorry to hear about your grandma
vonki has hit nail on head about player pool at nl5 being honest they are very transparent
review weasels population read video

Thank you! Grandma is much better now and we hope to see her home soon.

Probably I fall into the trap that was discussing with the coach during one of the sessions. There are sometimes periods of couple of thousands, or even more hands when everyone play back at you, so you get the impression that they are aggressive, are bluffing alot etc. As a result, you start to rebluff alot, call lightly and lose even more money like that. But the thing is that they just have a hand, not that they are aggressive. That happened to me after moving up to NL25. I've got an impression that there is a huge difference between NL25 and NL10, which shouldn't be like that. The same thing continued when I dropped down to NL10 again and now to NL5. They are just playing back much more than I would expect. To ilustrate this: My 4bet range is less than 2,5%, which is way too less because it should be arround 4. So, I'm definitelly not 4bet bluffing as near as I should. But my 4bet graph for last 40k hands still looks like this:

...which is almost impossible. That just shows how hard they are hitting every time I try to 4bet bluff. To spice the things up, in this period I lost about 300$, but just All In EV is -133$. So, the variance hit me probably in every aspect of the game, which has an impact to my showdown and non-showdown winnings. If I look at my stats, all of them look almost perfect, according to w34z3l's videos, but I'm still losing like 80/10 fish and that's annoying. Will definitelly discuss those numbers with the coach to approve my claims.

Vonki is correct.

Some of the hands were standard, like top two pairs on a very wet board is an OK stack off.

But a hand like 87 2pair on 78Ts is not a good stackoff.

The relative hand strength isn't as good as percieved, because Villain has J9o,J9s,96s,T8s,77,88,TT,T8s,T7s of combinatinos which have you beat already. He might raise even wider, but let's give him that only.

That means, there are 34 combinations which have you beat already, and his semibluffs have a high amount of equity. Gutshot+FD has 42%.

Originally posted by KingKas
Vonki is correct.

Some of the hands were standard, like top two pairs on a very wet board is an OK stack off.

But a hand like 87 2pair on 78Ts is not a good stackoff.

The relative hand strength isn't as good as percieved, because Villain has J9o,J9s,96s,T8s,77,88,TT,T8s,T7s of combinatinos which have you beat already. He might raise even wider, but let's give him that only.

That means, there are 34 combinations which have you beat already, and his semibluffs have a high amount of equity. Gutshot+FD has 42%.

I agree! Thanks!

Here is the report for Get Rich or Die Tryin' - The Bankroll Challenge:

Starting bankroll: 1.061,04 USD
Targeting bankroll: 5.305,20 USD
Last week bankroll: 821,88 USD
-------------------------------------------------------------
Week 9
Hands (NL5/NL10): 6.324
Profit: -45,67 USD
Rakeback: 4,00 USD
Exchange rate difference: -0,05 USD
Week 9 profit: -41,72 USD
Current bankroll: 780,16 USD
-------------------------------------------------------------
Overall profit: -280,88 USD
Overall progress: -6,62%

Took a break for three days with a minimum volume (to keep status here). Played a bit NL10 today again. I'm not frustrated nor sad anymore, just tired...

Hi, Alleen86!

I saw this quote in the blog of other poker player and I think it is worth spreading it here:

As successful as you think the greatest players are, part of their greatness comes from the fact that they have braved downswings deeper than almost anyone else. It is a statistical certainty that the longer you play poker, the more likely you will face a downswing of truly titanic proportions.

We are naturally inclined to think of ourselves as poker players in terms of what we’re like when things are going well and we are successful . But how you face those downswings is just as big, if not bigger, a part, of your true capability as a poker player. I say again, how you face your downswings is a vital part of your skill as a poker player.

Being a great poker player isn’t just about capitalizing on upswings, nice graphs, taking shots and moving up. A huge part of the journey of a poker player is how you brave your downswings . It is gritting your teeth, taking punishment, again and again, day after day, and holding fast. Being a great player when you’re winning is not enough.

You must know that it is always possible a storm of variance will hit you, a storm so large, so powerful, so destructive that you will not survive it, so ruthless that it will break you. And someday, if you keep playing poker , you will face that downswing , and it will be one bigger, deeper, and longer than you ever thought possible. This is a statistical certainty. No amount of playing good, or praying, or good karma will protect you from it. It is only a matter of time and chance. The question , then, is this. How strong are you, really? How big of a storm will you be able to weather?

Qureshi, Haseeb. How to Be a Poker Player: The Philosophy of Poker.

Originally posted by KKNgroup
Hi, Alleen86!

I saw this quote in the blog of other poker player and I think it is worth spreading it here:

As successful as you think the greatest players are, part of their greatness comes from the fact that they have braved downswings deeper than almost anyone else. It is a statistical certainty that the longer you play poker, the more likely you will face a downswing of truly titanic proportions.

We are naturally inclined to think of ourselves as poker players in terms of what we’re like when things are going well and we are successful . But how you face those downswings is just as big, if not bigger, a part, of your true capability as a poker player. I say again, how you face your downswings is a vital part of your skill as a poker player.

Being a great poker player isn’t just about capitalizing on upswings, nice graphs, taking shots and moving up. A huge part of the journey of a poker player is how you brave your downswings . It is gritting your teeth, taking punishment, again and again, day after day, and holding fast. Being a great player when you’re winning is not enough.

You must know that it is always possible a storm of variance will hit you, a storm so large, so powerful, so destructive that you will not survive it, so ruthless that it will break you. And someday, if you keep playing poker , you will face that downswing , and it will be one bigger, deeper, and longer than you ever thought possible. This is a statistical certainty. No amount of playing good, or praying, or good karma will protect you from it. It is only a matter of time and chance. The question , then, is this. How strong are you, really? How big of a storm will you be able to weather?

Qureshi, Haseeb. How to Be a Poker Player: The Philosophy of Poker.

Thanks, man! This is really inspireing!

I read a couple of hands and stuff and I really have no intention of putting you, your decisions or your coach down, but it seems you are really loose on the trigger. U can easily get involved into an allin pot preflop, and overvalue QQ and stuff. Seems to me that on nl 5 or nl10 you don't need to be that loose since people play pretty straightforward, and you cant really bluff them. Ask yourself, if all these people would go broke with air or weak hands preflop and/or postflop, we all would be winning by a pretty big margin wouldn't we?