Ho Nimit Lold'em!

I think you might be right jb

My laugh wifes at me because I have heaps of spreadsheets and database queries on all aspects of the game.

But that is half the fun -- studying and analysing the game.

The money is just added benefit.

Cheers,
VS

My laugh doesn't wife! I have just had a huge discussion with my brother who studies maths. He isn't interested in playing poker but is very interested in theory now (weirdo).

I agree money is the benefit if you win

Update!

Running like complete SHIT, but grinding well and not tilting.

An example hand
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $11.33 (113.3 bb)
BB: $10.46 (104.6 bb)
Hero (UTG): $12.57 (125.7 bb)
MP: $10.05 (100.5 bb)
CO: $21.74 (217.4 bb)
BTN: $11.25 (112.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7 7
Hero raises to $0.30, MP folds, CO raises to $0.80, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.75) K 7 K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90

Turn: ($3.55) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.90, Hero raises to $4.30, CO calls $2.40

River: ($12.15) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $7.65, Hero folds

Results:

preflop is a bit too loose of a call but he made it smaller than usual and we are a little deeper so i think it's fine to play purely for nut value.

This month is going pretty well now, both in terms of results and also volume. Even though I dropped down to nl10 I'm climbing back up!!!

Been playing some nl10 and nl16 zoom, 4 tabling. I'm really happy with my game and it was such a huge mindset leak of mine to only play short sessions. I kind of understand why but it is irrational, and as we can see I've been working on that. Waking up 1 hour earlier than I usually do to grind 4 tables with coffee is a pretty nice routine. I have my timer on my desktop which beeps when my hour is up and then I get ready and go in to uni to play with people's brains

Today is also a nice day for me because although I was feeling quite shitty for the whole day I managed to beat my personal best and got 3 reps of 120kg deadlift! Not amazing by most standards but I'm making real progress with that which is very fulfilling and I feel really good for it.

Anyway, I'll post a roundoff for the month in a few days' time. In the meantime, good luck with the fishies!

March Review

Hello everybody/anybody who reads this! Welcome to the end of March - here is my update.

As I keep saying, I was away from poker for some time before last month which meant that my game suffered quite a lot and I just wasn’t motivated even to think about it what with everything going on at university. Last month I had an impulse to play a session and instantly renewed my interest, but as is usual for me instead of going for more sessions I decided to study theory. I went back and watched all of my old coaching videos with double2 (best coach ;)), reviewed my notes, made more notes on my notes, and read those notes between hands at the table. I then watched some uri peleg stuff which is possibly the most motivating thing for me - I really think he is an amazing player and he inspires me to take notes on people! I also worked a lot to refresh my maths and I am about half way through reading Expert HU NLHE by Will Tipton.

After a while of studying this stuff I started feeling a little more refreshed and something double2 kept telling me was that I have to work on my volume. So I took his advice and I learned an important lesson: although it’s safe to say that you will improve somewhat if you work on your game and play lots of hands, the important thing is that you play those hands in a short space of time. In 2012 I must have played about 90k hands in total and that was spread out a lot. I felt like I was reading lots of theory but it was too much to take to the tables. I played 30k hands in a month once (lol?!) and started noticing little sweet spots that kept popping up where I could make a few bb extra. This is what happens, and this is what has been confirmed to me this month – I’m getting about 2000 hands per day when I do play (some days are too hectic) and once again I’m noticing little spots where I can make money and other spots where I should fold more. I never used to notice these things because the time between each occurrence was just too long for it to stand out in my mind.

My plan is simple: People seem to pride themselves on how lazy they are and how they don’t get things done. I don’t know why, but people keep talking and it almost sounds like they are bragging about it, like "oh I'm so lazy look at me I do nothing I'm sleeping 10 hours a night". So in recognition of this I will avoid this by sleeping for 6 hours instead of my usual 7 or 8. Those extra 2 hours can be spent doing something productive, like poker! So I’m spending 1 of those hours grinding in the morning and the other probably studying/reading or doing some university work. It is easy – just turn off all music, turn off facebook, put my phone on silent and get shit done.

In terms of my results for this month, the above strategy has been quite consistent and I managed to get in about 2 times the volume I used to get in even when I wasn’t working. My volume goals are met – I reached gold status on stars and managed just under 38k hands this month. I fucked up at the beginning of the month and ran bad as well on nl25, so dropped to nl10 where I soon decided to move up to nl16. The dropping down has gone ok, although I started to run bad today and also kept making mistakes. Here is the month’s graph without nl25:

My plan for next month will be to continue studying and continue getting in hands, although I won’t get as many hands in since I will have to dedicate more time to my university work. Nevertheless, I love the early morning grinding to get me thinking about poker through the day and I plan to continue it. I’m actually not too fussed about dropping down to nl10/nl16 since I know I can crush these limits. Here is a graph without nl25 – the majority of hands here are ZOOM10 wish some ZOOM16 at the end:

so I’m pretty happy about that. I really wonder why I can’t bring these sorts of results to nl25 – the games just feel easy below. Regardless, I’m not really thinking about moving up yet and I don’t really know with how many BI I should do this, probably around $750 - $800 mark sounds about right. I’m dying to shoot nl50 again‼!

Anyway, that’s it for my update. I’m done grinding for the rest of the month now because I have some research to do. Good luck at the tables people

You are making me consider trying a ~1h session before I go to work. But I'm kinda of a night owl, so I doubt I will have the capacity to get my ass out of bed at 7am.

And very nice post, you're in the right track, and I'd say the same even if the graph was a disaster.

Thanks! You should try it out

Haven't updated for a few days because I've been working a bit on my game. I was very motivated to play nl25 and once my bankroll hit 30BI I took a shot and I was feeling confident. However after <1000 hands I'm down ~6BI and will now move back to nl16. It's very tilting and off-putting and I just don't understand why nl25 seems to unbeatable for me. On the one hand I feel confident playing it but on the other I'm getting into some really sick spots that just don't seem to happen on any other limit I've played. I don't feel like I'm being exploited a ton, I'm just running into really strong hands when I have something worth playing. I tried to play my timed sessions as usual but I've had to end them due to tilt after about 30 mins which is not good.

rant over, going back to studying instead of playing.

Originally posted by DrDunne
... I'm just running into really strong hands when I have something worth playing. I tried to play my timed sessions as usual but I've had to end them due to tilt after about 30 mins which is not good.

I was pretty much in the same position, only a few limits down -- I had won over 6 BI in Mar, but since Apr 1 my good hands meet better ones with stunning frequency.

So it goes.

Best of luck on your next attempt!
VS

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
Best of luck on your next attempt!
VS

Thanks! I will just keep working away from the tables - I enjoy doing that a lot so it doesn't bother me but for now I will drop down and grind nl16.

Since in March I was trying to get volume in I feel like in April I will play only a few regular tables and focus on reads. I did this today and it was quite enjoyable and a bit of a change in pace. The quality of my sessions always seem to increase a ton when I focus on note taking and building reads, but the downside is my volume suffers immensely since I can only really 2 table while doing that. Despite that I think it is really good practice and something I (and many others) should do more often because although it is slow, I feel like over time it will allow us to gain a much stronger understanding of how our games are being played.

So far I've started learning a bit of crEV although it is pretty complex so I think that's more of a long-term project. Aside from that I've updated my note-taking after watching one of Grindcore's videos. Still in the process of testing it out and developing what feels right for me but I'm getting there - here it is:

So I'm using the stars client for preflop classifications and HM2 for postflop. These are the colours that feel intuitive to me, but it is very much still a work in progress. Would be good to hear feedback or even see what other people do differently. I'm spamming that in my blog mainly for reference and for feedback. Of course colours are oversimplified but they are a start to building reads and plus... I like a bit of variation on my screen!

That's me for tonight, now off to modelling your average nl25 regular's preflop game using HM...

I think you're doing just fine so far sir, I'll catch you up in about, oh, 5 years?

May the variance be with you always (don't we all wish)

Mal.

Originally posted by gadget51
I think you're doing just fine so far sir, I'll catch you up in about, oh, 5 years?

May the variance be with you always (don't we all wish)

Mal.

Thanks Mal! How is your game coming along? Where are you playing nowadays?

Spent the morning 3 tabling nl16 to build reads and also keep developing my note-taking.

As for the notes, I updated my previous post to include the latest colours which I am now pretty happy about but will probably make small adjustments over time.

I was playing quite well today, taking notes and coding the players and I was feeling really focussed. I played one really tragic hand.

Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $17.02 (106.4 bb)
Hero (BB): $18.23 (113.9 bb)
MP: $22.45 (140.3 bb)
CO: $20.73 (129.6 bb)
BTN: $26.86 (167.9 bb)

BTN Info: Marked as Laggy, playing 32/26 over 175 hands and 3betting 17.5, 4bet range 9.3. I've seen him 4bet bluff a couple times and he just doesn't seem to stop fighting for pots. Postflop he's marked orange because he plays back a lot. History: called a sqz wtih QJo, xb 3way with 2nd pair and called small turn stab. otr vs 17bb-51bb bluffjammed 2nd pair. He slowplays the nuts otf but then makes small value bets when strong hands are possible. I should have more notes but that paints a bit of a picture.

Preflop: Hero is BB with A Q
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.40, SB folds, Hero raises to $1.36, BTN raises to $4, Hero calls $2.64

Flop: ($8.08) 8 6 Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $4.48, Hero calls $4.48

Turn: ($17.04) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $4.88, Hero calls $4.88

River: ($26.80) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $7.67, Hero calls $4.87 and is all-in

Results:

I called pre because I feel like I'm doing ok vs his bluffy range and I can station down if I hit so my implied odds are quite good despite getting ~2:1 on a call. I could also jam over and I'm not sure if this is best. Maybe I'll see the EV of a jam...

Anyway, on the flop I hit and just station down as planned. I didn't pay as close attention to my notes since the SPR is so low and I'm not sure it applies, but he actually confirms the note I have about betting small with a nutty range... which sucks lol. I think that's really interesting because he bombs 50% + a few bb IP as the 4better with I guess a protection bet(?), and then when he turns the practical nuts he bets <30% pot. So now I will update my notes on him. I doubt I'll find myself rebluffing this guy as an exploit but I will definitely consider making some tight folds based on his betsizing in future.

Also I have another hand:

Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

SB: $22.76 (142.3 bb)
BB: $16.35 (102.2 bb)
Hero (UTG): $18.43 (115.2 bb)
MP: $16 (100 bb)
CO: $17.25 (107.8 bb)
BTN: $22.53 (140.8 bb) 25/19 over 196 hands, low 3bet, doesn't seem very positionally aware etc etc.

I don't have any notes on this guy because I guess I was busy watching other players (quite a few fish around).

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T 9
Hero raises to $0.56, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.56, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.36) 8 5 J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.97, BTN raises to $3.40, Hero raises to $17.87 and is all-in

Standard cbet and I should have a plan for what to do when raised. I get 30% pot odds to call but I think it kinda sucks since I have no SDV, and even if I had 9♠:8♠: I don't really think i should be calling because I won't realise my SDV.

My equity is pretty good but my position sucks so I think calling is pretty bad. That leaves me with raising because folding is shitty. Let's do some EV for shoving.

If I shove, I invest $16.90. If he folds, the pot (potFold) = $5.73. If he calls, the final pot will be $37.10.

If he only raises me with sets I have no FE, so the EV of my jam is:

EV(jam) = (finalPot * equity) - investment
EV(jam) = 14.93656 - 16.90
EV(jam) = -$1.96

That's quite pessimistic, so now let's add in some FE. Say he raise/folds with only bottom pair top kicker, A5s. This makes his total raising range 1.11% (#12), and he continues vs my jam only with his sets and folds his A5s. That means our FE = (0.28 / 1.11) = 25.2% and he continues 1 - FE = 74.8%.

EV(jam) = pFold * potFold + pCall * ((finalPot * equity) - investment).
EV(jam) = .252 * $5.73 + .748 * (($37.1 * .4026) - $16.90
EV(jam) = 1.44396 + (-1.46873)
EV(jam) = -$0.024.

Fine, so it's still -EV and we aren't even acconting for rake, but that's still quite pessimistic so I'll do it again with more raise/folds in his range lol. Let's give him raise/call range of only sets again, 0.83% (#9), and a raise/fold range of A5s, A♦:8♦: and A♣:8♣:, which is 0.46% (#5). So his total raising range is 1.30% of total hands (#14). That means our FE = (0.46 / 1.30) = 35.4%, and the probability that he calls (pCall) = 1 - FE = 64.6%.

EV(jam) = .354 * $5.73 + 0.646 * (($37.10 * .4026) - 16.90
EV(jam) = 2.02842 + (-1.26845)
EV(jam) = ~+$0.76

So there we have it: if he has just 5 bluffing combos to his 9 set combos then it becomes a +EV jam. This isn't accounting for rake which I don't really know what it is on stars. So we probably want a few more bluff combos from him which I don't think is so unreasonable. However this situation is overcomplicated a little by the fact that he will sometimes raise/call with dominating FDs. I didn't include these in his range partly for example's sake, but also because SO many people are just flatting flop with their FDs so I don't think it is terrible to assume he never(read "rarely") raises these hands. Regardless, we have other outs from our OESD so it's probably not terrible. I also think it's possible he can flat some QQ and AK here, if not slowplay KK+ also and we don't know if he'll fold QQ+ to my jam.

Bottom line is it's probably approximately a breakeven jam at worst, and probably slightly +EV at best which just depends on his bluff% which we don't know. It is most likely the most +EV decision to bet/jam rather than bet/fold. I think if we aren't planning to ship, we shouldn't cbet, but that doesn't feel like a very great play to make. The reason I think this is because if we bet then we create a spot where the most +EV play to make is probably to ship it in (rather than call down and only hit ~40% of the time while investing only to fold later the remaining 60%). If we don't bet however, then that means we will obviously be priced in to x/c a few streets so maybe it won't be that bad either, I just feel like getting it in is much more fun.

^^ if he does raise/call 8sXs and the ocasional AsXs you're in a lot more trouble. But yeah, jamming seems okay.

Originally posted by double2
^^ if he does raise/call 8sXs and the ocasional AsXs you're in a lot more trouble. But yeah, jamming seems okay.

What's your opinion about how to play this? What do you think about something weird like bet/call flop and donk turn? This would be strange but when we donk turn and he just calls he might be capped so we can ship rivers, if he raises then we get it in but it's not a fistpump (no less than the flop though) but he will also be folding sometimes. And we will also donk and ship river when we hit on the turn as well...

yea the brain looks blank soorry

Originally posted by htghguuh
yea the brain looks blank soorry

lol it's a structural scan anyway so no functional data recorded

Haven't updated for a few days! Wasn't so motivated to post/play that much since I was running a little bad and nothing was really working. The other day I managed to bink a micro tourney which is like the first time I've ever made a decent amount from some MTT:

Not that much at all but it pretty much set me back to where I was before I lost a shit load! The only reason why I played these things in the first place was because I was tilted with cash and wanted to chill out and mix the routine up a little.

As for my latest thoughts, I'm having some issues with that fine line between betting for thin value/protection and checking for SDV. I'm not talking about TPGK type hands when draws hit, I'm talking about mid strength hands against ranges that I believe contain worse hands that won't fold. So I either find myself betting into something a bit better, or I check and call against (1) better hands, or (2) hands that hit on later streets.

Anyway, here are today's spew results - I'll let you guess how I was approaching things in these sessions:

Actually I feel the val/prot issue isn't as important as making tighter folds with marginal hands in small pots. A leak I'm becoming aware of is I'm leaving small amounts of money on the table where I call flop with no intention of continuing on later streets. Normally this is with hands that have good absolute strength but terrible mojo! So today I'm happy that I was noticing these situations and being disciplined to not continue with my bad habits.

I have literally absorbed almost all of my favourite theory videos once again over the last week or so. It's so interesting how watching the same video series 3 times with 1 year in between each watch can give you a completely fresh perspective every time. I guess it has to do with our own game development over that period and that we view the game differently each time we watch it, so pick out different bits of information. Still have a few more things to watch but I feel somewhat improved from all of this.

I should stop watching theory videos so much and watch more live sessions.

Trying to keep these 2 leaks of mine in mind -- I bluffraise without a plan and I make my sizings bad and have a poor consideration of pot geometry. Example hand from today:

Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
SB: $16.30 (101.9 bb)
BB: $16.16 (101 bb)
UTG: $22.93 (143.3 bb)
MP: $15.68 (98 bb)
Hero (CO): $18.80 (117.5 bb)
BTN: $18.87 (117.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7 8
UTG raises to $0.48, MP folds, behind me are some tight players with low 3bet frequencies and UTG cbets 84% on the flop over 1.4k hands so Hero calls $0.48 with the plan of taking it away on some boards, 3 folds

Flop: ($1.20) T 8 5 (2 players)
UTG bets $0.69, villain cbets OOP 75% on the flop and 70% on the turn so Hero calls $0.69 and plans to turn hand into a bluff on later streets - think it's a bit weak to station down. That gives the question of whether or not I should do this because either he has something like AK and barrels it (so I should bluffcatch with some solid equity) or he has a hand that he probably won't fold (so I should just fold and not bluff!). So maybe my plan is bad but I feel like i'm not folding a Tx hand given his wide preflop range + barreling tendencies, which means if I do decide to bluff then 8x is one of the best hands I'm not comfortable stationing with, and with 87s I have the BDFD+BDSD as well as 5 outs to 2pair/trips on the flop. So I'm not sure.

Turn: ($2.58) 5 (2 players)
UTG bets $1.76, Hero raises to $4 and then facepalms at the sizing, UTG calls $2.24 --- "Shit, he called... what do I do on the river now?!"

River: ($10.58) 8 (2 players)
Hero has failed to set stacks up well! UTG checks, Hero bets $7.57, UTG folds

Results: $10.58 pot ($0.48 rake)
Final Board: T 8 5 5 8
UTG mucked and lost (-$5.17 net)
Hero mucked 7 8 and won $10.10 ($4.93 net)