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20$ BvB spot A4s 6max

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benaars
Joined: 03.06.2010

Winamax, $18 Buy-in (2,000/4,000 blinds, 500 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): 120,067 (30 bb)
BB: 111,815 (28 bb)
UTG: 52,460 (13.1 bb)
MP: 175,652 (43.9 bb)
CO: 41,688 (10.4 bb)
BTN: 176,495 (44.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4 A
4 folds, Hero raises to 9,000, BB raises to 111,315 and is all-in, Hero folds

Hello,
Player in BB is unknown to me, but seems like a reg. If I put this hand into HRC chipEV mode it suggests for villain to have crazy large 3betjam range (55,5%) vs my SB open which should be at 100%. What could be more realistic range for unknown villain and isn't it very exploitable to r/f a suited ace here BvB?


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SDK1987
Joined: 12.11.2008

If I was the SB I would 3bet with my entire range for 28bb effective and it’s likely he will shove with a capped range now. I expect he will 3 bet shove with a range of approximately 30.3%, QQ-22 Ax+ K4s+ K8o+ Q9s+ QTo+ J9s+ T9s and is A4s still a clear call in the SB.

Cheers,
SDK1987


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LuckyLukePS
Joined: 28.08.2014

I actually think this is much closer, since I expect most competent villains will prefer to flat a lot of hands here than jam them, such as small suited aces and weaker suited broadways / off-broadways.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.045% 47.70% 06.34% 787426920 104680842.00 { JJ-22, AJs-A8s, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, AQo-A2o, K9o+, QJo }
Hand 1: 45.955% 39.61% 06.34% 653872452 104680842.00 { A4s }

I think this is a "strong" range, as he may 3b/call some of these holdings. Still against this range it is very thin, we need 45% to break-even. If we take out a few of the suited hands it becomes -EV.


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