Snakes will smoke

So I was finally able to pick up $0.65 for coming 4th in a Mahjong freeroll (Japanese Riichi) last Wednesday, but unfortunately lost $1.10 again in a Hong Kong rules tournament where I got eliminated in the semi-final. Really close one, but no dice...

It's hard to tell where my Hold'em SNGs are going, but I seem to do all right. I also gave PLO Zoom games yet another try, and I think I'm slowly starting to get into them.

I had some PLO hands prepared to show here, but I somehow messed up the conversion, so you'll just have to use your imagination this time...

Converted by the cows of Feral Cow Poker
PokerStars Pot Limit Omaha $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players

Button: $17.49
SB: $2.29 (Hero)
BB: $2.00
UTG: $1.99
UTG+1: $1.15
CO: $10.96

Preflop: ($0.03) Hero is SB with (6 players)
UTG calls $0.02, UTG+1 calls $0.02, CO folds, Button calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.08, BB calls $0.06, UTG calls $0.06, UTG+1 calls $0.06, Button calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.40) (5 players)
Hero bets $0.22, BB folds, UTG calls $0.22, UTG+1 calls $0.22, Button raises to $1.49, Hero raises to $2.21 and is all-in, UTG calls $1.69 and is all-in, UTG+1 calls $0.85 and is all-in, Button calls $0.72

Turn: ($7.80) (4 players)

River: ($7.80) (4 players)

Button showed , and won ($7.54) with four of a kind, Sixes
Hero showed , and lost with a full house, Nines full of Sixes
UTG showed , and lost with a full house, Fours full of Sixes
UTG+1 showed , and lost with two pair, Nines and Sixes
Button won $7.54
(Rake: $0.26)

A 57% chance on the flop to almost quadruple up? Count me in!

If I really want to stick around in PLO (still unsure if I do), I guess I will have to get used to situations like that.

So this was on the bubble of one of my SNGs. Look at the stack sizes - can anyone tell me what on earth SB was thinking?

This converter is going to be a cash cow...
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em ($1.32+$0.18) t40/t80 ante t10 - 3 players

BB: t878 (Hero)
Button: t4,248
SB: t3,874

Preflop: (t150) Hero is BB with (3 players)
Button raises to t160, SB raises to t400, Hero folds, Button calls t240

Flop: (t910) (2 players)
SB bets t400, Button calls t400

Turn: (t1,710) (2 players)
SB bets t800, Button raises to t1600, SB calls t800

River: (t4,910) (2 players)
SB checks, Button bets t1838 and is all-in, SB calls t1464 and is all-in

Button showed , and won (7838) with a flush, Ace high
SB showed , and lost with a pair of Fives
Button won t7838

Here's another thing about Omaha. I'd have to really rethink what exactly can be considered "The Nuts".

A pack of feral cows chewed their cuds for .0043 seconds to convert this hand
PokerStars Pot Limit Omaha $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players

Button: $2.28 (Hero)
SB: $6.03
BB: $1.56
UTG: $2.00
UTG+1: $2.00
CO: $2.03

Preflop: ($0.03) Hero is Button with (6 players)
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.06, SB calls $0.05, BB folds

Flop: ($0.14) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.14) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($0.14) (2 players)
SB bets $0.14, Hero raises to $0.56, SB raises to $1.82, Hero raises to $2.22 and is all-in, SB calls $0.40

Hero showed , and lost with a full house, Jacks full of Threes
SB showed , and won ($4.43) with a straight flush, Three to Seven
SB won $4.43
(Rake: $0.15)

It isn't just Omaha...
If you look at my 2nd Last HoTD I lost hitting Aces full on the river to flopped quads. The villain played me perfectly.

It made me realize that in Hold'em, a full house is NEVER the nuts -- on a paired board, quads are always possible.
On an unpaired board, with no suit having more than 2 on board it is possible to hold the stone cold nuts.
If there is one suit that has 3 or more members on board, then the nut flush is the stone cold nuts.

Which lea me to wonder:
On the turn, what boards can there be such that no player can hold a straight draw?
OTF, 27Q and 38K have no hole cards that give a straight draw, but I think that any turn card to either of those gives at least a gutshot.

Cheers,
VS

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
It made me realize that in Hold'em, a full house is NEVER the nuts -- on a paired board, quads are always possible.

Yes, but only if you're holding a pocket pair. If you're holding one of each cards, you're blocking every combo that would allow your opponent to get quads. So on an AAK49 board, AK can indeed be considered the nuts.

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
If there is one suit that has 3 or more members on board, then the nut flush is the stone cold nuts.

Unless, of course, a straight flush is possible, like in the hand I posted last time.
I remember being lucky enough to hold a straight flush myself while my opponent had an Ace-high flush one time during a SNG at 888 a few years ago. Needless to say, I took his stack.

But it's true, holding the absolute stone cold nuts might be rarer than we think. The difference is that in PLO, it is much more likely than in Hold'em that your opponent actually holds the two cards you don't want him to hold.

Playing PLO has actually helped me a bit with my Hold'em postflop game, I believe. Now that I know a different approach, I tend to think a bit more carefully about what can conceivably beat me, and what turn or river cards require special attention.

By the way, I have been in a very similar situation today, which luckily worked out this time. I imagined that if anyone would beat me there, it was probably the shortstack who was already all-in.

Originally posted by Harrier88
Yes, but only if you're holding a pocket pair. If you're holding one of each cards, you're blocking every combo that would allow your opponent to get quads. So on an AAK49 board, AK can indeed be considered the nuts.

Oh -- good point.

And nice hand at the end there...
VS

Thanks!

Here's another hand from the same session where my Full House held up once again, but this time, I'm relatively sure that I overplayed it.

After the turn check, I figured that he was probably on a draw. If he decided to slowplay a monster, why would he make that big raise on the flop?

beware the feral cow packs. they hunger.
PokerStars Pot Limit Omaha $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players

Button: $3.10
SB: $1.17
BB: $3.08 (Hero)
UTG: $2.07
UTG+1: $1.47
CO: $3.35

Preflop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with (6 players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $0.07, CO calls $0.07, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.05

Flop: ($0.22) (3 players)
Hero bets $0.13, UTG+1 calls $0.13, CO raises to $0.73, Hero calls $0.60, UTG+1 calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.41) (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks

River: ($2.41) (3 players)
Hero bets $1.15, UTG+1 folds, CO raises to $2.55 and is all-in, Hero calls $1.13 and is all-in

Hero showed , and won ($6.74) with a full house, Fours full of Tens
CO showed , and lost with a straight, Ace to Five
Hero won $6.74
(Rake: $0.23)

Overplayed maybe, but not too too many combos beat you, and I'm guessing that the equity of your hand justifies the river bet/call.
But I'm no Omahahaha player.

Cheers,
VS

This one was physically painful...

Once I saw that flop, I was so ready to put my stack in if I get the chance.

I didn't plan to fold the river, but part of me thought that I should maybe just call. But then I thought, "nah, he doesn't have the quads. No way he has the quads."

PLO has been going quite well recently, but not today. The main problem was that I was playing way too loose, I believe.

I also tried playing two Zoom tables this time, which was probably part of the problem. From now on, I'm going to stick to one table of Zoom. Quality over quantity.

There really seems to be some potential in PLO, I'd hate to give it up.

Swingaments!

Gl!

Originally posted by UPAY4DINNER
Swingaments!

Nah, it's cash.
jk, I know what you mean.

I'm not entirely sure to what degree I can really blame my play here, because, at the end of the day, I just didn't hit all that often this time, and a big part of my losses was the sum of many small pots that I had to give up - though I may have done that when it was a bit too late in some cases.

But these autopilot zombie sessions are not going to benefit me in any way. I noticed that last year when I was 4-tabling NL Hold'em Zoom games, and now with two PLO Zoom tables, I spotted some very similar symptoms once again. Let's not even get started with this madness this time.

Quite a few swings today as well, and I was not too happy with my play. But I did pick up around a BI.

In the later sessions, one of my main problems was that I was playing way too scared. I should have put the money in while I was ahead, instead of giving away free cards out of fear of running into the nuts. Because that's what my opponents ended up having more often than not once those free cards were revealed.

Normally, I think my postflop game is my weak point, but in PLO, I think my preflop game is what needs the most work. I should really refresh my knowledge in this area. Lately, I have done next to no poker-related studying at all, and PLO is still a new game for me.

Here's a hand from an earlier session, when I was still a bit more aggressive. My opponent must have had a pretty good read at the very end, even though I don't think you can justify a fold like that based on pot odds.

<sigh>
I hate it when the really, really pretty ones get don't get paid.

one of my main problems was that I was playing way too scared. I should have put the money in while I was ahead, instead of giving away free cards out of fear of running into the nuts. Because that's what my opponents ended up having more often than not once those free cards were revealed.

With the right player, you don't even need to be ahead.
The villain in this one was in a lot of pots and was highly aggressive.
OTT he appears to take a stab, and I figured I could blow him off the pot with a decent raise.
Not so.
OTR I'm dead in the water, but the K♥: is a decent enough scared card so...

I'm not saying I recommend it all the time

There was a discussion in the Badugi thread in "Other Poker Variants" about how important aggression is.

PLeno used to do this all the time.
It does work, but "Playing poker is like curing acne: You must pick your spots carefully".
Oh, and you have to not mind losing a big pot now and again. When you do, you'll look like a total idiot, which can make (or cost) you even more $$$ later.

All the best,
VS

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
With the right player, you don't even need to be ahead.

The problem is that in PLO, players are rarely drawing dead. There are still flops that are worth attacking, but you can't always count on it, because in addition to their "main draws", the villains might still have a few rags up their sleeves that could make it worthwhile to stay in the hand.

Here's a hand from a few days ago where this worked out quite nicely for me:

I think my tendency to play scared today was mainly a case of overadapting. I used to put in too much money with dominated hands before, so I avoided making bets at all if I was not completely certain that I was ahead this time. It might even have worked out somewhat, if I didn't have this tendency to make Hero calls on the river anyway if the bet size is manageable.

But like I said, I'm pretty new to Omaha, so I guess I shouldn't be too hard on myself for making mistakes like that.

Massive pot goes to waste:

v1.25Feral Cow Poker Hand Converter
PokerStars Pot Limit Omaha $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players

Button: $2.90
SB: $2.24
BB: $1.96
UTG: $2.03 (Hero)
UTG+1: $1.06
CO: $5.72

Preflop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG with A♥: 5♥: 8♦: A♦: (6 players)
Hero raises to $0.06, UTG+1 folds, CO raises to $0.21, Button calls $0.21, SB calls $0.20, BB folds, Hero raises to $1.07, CO calls $0.86, Button calls $0.86, SB calls $0.86

Flop: ($4.30) T♦: 7♠: 5♦: (4 players)
SB bets $1.17 and is all-in, Hero calls $0.96 and is all-in, CO raises to $4.65 and is all-in, Button folds

Turn: ($7.60) 3♦: (3 players)

River: ($7.60) 5♣: (3 players)

SB showed Q♥: A♣: T♣: 5♠:, and won ($7.35) with a full house, Fives full of Tens
Hero showed A♥: 5♥: 8♦: A♦:, and lost with a flush, Ace high
CO showed 9♦: K♠: 9♥: 8♣:, and lost with two pair, Nines and Fives
SB won $7.35
(Rake: $0.25)

Pre-flop equity (against these two hands): 51.81%
Equity on the flop: 44.24%
Equity on the turn: 91.66%

But that's Omaha...

This hand nicely illustrates a general problem I have in cash games of any kind. All too often, I seem to feel to need to play the table sheriff, so to speak. I believe that this problem may actually occur more often when I play in higher limits, so maybe it could be considered a case of "reverse scared money", if that makes sense.

Basically, I'm in a situation where I have reasonably assessed that I'm most likely behind, and my opponent puts in a big bet into an already big pot on the last street. I'm already hovering over the Fold button, but then I'm tempted to think that my opponent just tries to scare me out of the pot. Determined to prove him wrong, and additionally tempted by the big pot that could be mine, I start making excuses and rationalizations to justify a possible call, and eventually, the old skool casino gambler in me takes over and exclaims "Let's see 'em!".

And there goes my profit for the session and then some. Tilt usually ensues, and sometimes I manage to even rationalize my tilt away and stick around for a few poor decisions more, which eventually makes me leave the tables.

But what really makes this problematic is that in some cases, my hunch was actually correct, which encourages me to do it again in future situations because it seems that my line of thinking was perfectly justified. And this would indeed be the case if I was basing it on mathematics, ranges and equity, instead of emotions and wishful thinking.

Maybe it's a case of the sunk cost fallacy. But whatever it is, I have not been able to consistently make these kind of laydowns since I started exploring cash games in late 2013, which always led me to eventually abandon this format at one point.

I need to find the courage the fold these 2nd best hands in situations where I can reasonably expect to be behind. Otherwise, I predict that I'm back to playing SNGs for fun within a week or so.

Hey mate It's been a while. Hope you are doing well besides those suckups in Omaha ♠
If I may ask why did you switch? I have only played a couple of times, but I never liked it. It's more like Caribbean than Hold'em you usually don't know where you stand unless you have the possible best hand. It doesn't seems like there is a way to narrow someone's range is there? I know nothing about Omaha strategy.

PD: good to see you are a moderator now, congratulations I'll be around

Great article on "sunk cost fallacy".
Another term not in the article (that I saw anyway) is "chasing your losses".
The mental game counter to this is: "Whether he's bluffing or not, I'm behind his range -- time to cut my losses".

I wonder how much the term "pot committed" is a measure of this phenomenon. Are we really "pot committed" or is it better to save our 25 BB for a better spot even though we may have 75 in the pot already.

You see people post stuff like "You need to be ahead only 33% of the time..." but in reality you're unlikely to be ahead even 10%. Now the next trick (after figuring all that out in 30 seconds or less) is to actually pull the trigger and fold.

In my 30s I worked at an auction house. I was just a worker bee, but one of the things I did while a piece was actually being sold was to spot bids. This is fun. People don't want other people to know that they are bidding. They would arrange a signal with me. I would scan the floor and if I saw a signal, I'd throw my hand up, and yell, "Yes!" while the auctioneer kept up his patter.

Occasionally, a desirable item would sell for much more than its actual worth.

The fun comes in when nobody want an item. If the price called by the auctioneer is really low, I could raise my hand and yell "Yes!" even if no one had bid. If no one bids higher, I have to buy the item, but usually at a ridiculous low price.

I never thought of it before, but auctions are a lot like betting.
In auctions they talk of the "winning bid". Sorry pal, you didn't win anything -- you have to pay the full price!
Another mental game leak in auctions is the terrible feeling of having "lost" something when someone outbids you on something you really wanted. The auctioneer once saw me bid too much for something, and afterwards pulled me aside and told me: "In this business, if you don't want to go broke, never overvalue anything. No matter how much you want it, not matter how rare it is, there is always another one somewhere."

All the best,
VS