Hi 
Lately I have been examining my postflop game (only postflop, not turn and river, gotta go step by step), and I find that I was just burning money by cbetting too much. Playing in the micros, I find that I am the preflop raiser more often than not, and the common response to that is to cbet the flop, no matter what, even if we miss completely (as taught by the No Limit Beginner's Course by confidant91, or the strategy articles on this site).
However, even us beginners have to sense that this is not always correct, for many reasons:
- If we have a dry flop (8♣:5♥:3♠ multiway, and the villain calls, and the turn comes a blank (T♦:), what do we do with, say, A♦:K♠:? Do we bet the turn, because "c'mon, it's AKo"?
- If we are out of position, what do we do if the villain has been watching our cbetting, and raises us?
- What if we hit a gutshot and cbet the flop, but miss the turn?
- ....
As you can see, cbetting 100% of the time can lead to make mistakes, and when we make mistakes, we lose money. I estimate that, for me, it's costed me about 10Buy-Ins (20€), if we count mistakes that I made because the villain called my cbet.
However, even though cbetting 100% of flops is certainly a bad idea, cbetting only those in which you hit the flop doesn't seem right to me, I think that we would be losing value. So, how do we know when to cbet?
Well, for that we have to look into WHY do we want to cbet (or bet in general). In my opinion, there is only one reason to bet in No-Limit Hold 'em: For Value.
We bet because we want to play as close to perfectly as possible, taking advantage of every bit of value we can get, and at the same time, we want to take value away from our opponent. In short:
We bet to not give away value, and to take value away from our opponent.
To take value away from aour opponent, we have two options:
- Bet, because we expect the villain to call with a worse hand (valuebet).
- Bet, because we expect the villain to fold a better hand (bluff).
Keep those two reasons in mind, since we will apply them to cbetting.
How to know if a cbet is profitable:
Now, let's apply these concepts to a cbet. Let's imagine that you raised 2.5BB with A♠:9♦: from the BU, and the SB calls, the BB fold. The flop comes 8♦:T♠:Q♣:. Our hand certainly does have outs (7, if we count the 3 Aces and 4Js), but it's not really in that great shape, since the 4Js might not even be real outs (K9 comes to mind). Do we cbet?
Well, if we believe that the only reason to bet is for value, let's review the two forms of getting value:
- Can we get a worse hand to call? Well, kind of, since hands like 76s, 87s, etc can call us (I've seen it a lot in the micros). But the hands that call us have a greater chance of having us beat than not (AT, KT, KQ, QT, TT-88...).
- Can I get a better hand to fold? This is a more tricky question (and the one that can actually make oyu money), and to answer it we need to see another concept: Fold equity.
Fold Equity, and why you should care about it:
Fold Equity is simply the probability of ALL opponents folding on a given street, multiplied by the amount we make by them folding, minus the amount that we lose if they call (assuming we are purely bluffing):
FOLD EQUITY = (%ALL FOLD * POT) - ((1 - %ALL FOLD) * EFFECTIVE BET)
To put it simply, Fold Equity is what helps us estimate whether a bluff will be profitable or not. If our Fold Equity is more than 0, it's a profitable bluff. If it's not, we lose money when bluffing. This is of course impossible to estimate exactly, but we can take some general rules from this:
- If we are against opponents who call 90% of our cbets, we have very very little fold equity, and thus it's really really wrong to cbet the flop as a bluff, but we should always do it with the best hand. Some fish (loose passive players) work like that: They will call the flop even with the most backdoor of all the draws.
- If we are against an opponent who plays fit/fold on the flop, then it's usually correct to cbet the flop, since he will miss most of the time. This is the OTHER kind of fish, and also this is how some worse regs work at the micros.
Pay attention to the players, it will make you lots of money.
Of course, there are many more factors that determine our fold equity, some of which will be listed below.
Factors that can increase your fold equity
- Dry boards (unpaired, low-value boards): This is the biggest one, I think, especially in the lower stakes, where people only worry about their cards and the board, and don't even think aobut what you're holding. Players usually miss the flop when it comes dry, and will mostly fold to a cbet without hesitation.
- Paired low boards: Since people at the micros tend to overevaluate Kx and Qx hands, they will see a flop uite often with them. Thus, when the flop comes 6♠:6♥:9♣: and you cbet, they can't find enough time to fold their K2o.
- Straighty or flushy boards: The same as paired, except in these ones they hit more draws, and thus you get called more often (people can't really fold 4♥:A♦: on a T♥:7♥:2♥: board). By the way, in this kind of boards, getting a worse hand to call is really really easy, if we find ourselves in the good end of an OESD, for example.
- You are Heads-Up: Of course, it's way easier to make 1 person fold, than 2 people.
- Somebody who calls with speculative hands, and plays fit/fold postflop: Here, he will miss most of the time, as discussed above.
- Being in position: If you are the preflop raiser and the caller checks to you on the flop, there is a high, high chance that the villain has given up the cand, and you can just take it down with any two cards.
Factors that can decrease your Fold Equity:
- You are multiway: This is a big one. If you are multiway, even if you are in position, really look for reasons to cbet as a bluff, because someone is bound to call.
- The board is high: People at the micros don't like to fold pairs. Ever. And since their calling ranges contain lots of broadways, and weak aces, a flop like A♠:K♦:Q♣: gives us very very little fold equity.
- Really loose, really passive players: These players are really easy to valuebet, but really hard to bluff, mostly because they really don't care about what you're representing, so they just call with their gutshots and expect to get lucky. I have lost tons of money trying to make these people fold.
- Regulars that know that you're cbetting really wide: The good regulars will actually be thinking about what hand you are representing, and the likelyhood of you having it, so for example if you flop 3♦:3♥:7♠:, after 3betting preflop, you'll really have a hard time representing any kind of good hand.
- Really aggresive players: These people will reraise you with air, for no good reason, and are also really difficult to make fold. Thus, you should only valuebet them.
- Very low stack to pot ratio (S/PR): With shorter stacks, people find it harder to fold.
Wrap it up together
Having defined what fold equity is, and how to determine, here's a heuristic that has helped me avoid making stupid cbets:
- 1.- Do I think I have the best hand, or a good enough draw? (Why?) If I do, bet for value. If I don't, go to 2.
- 2.- Can I make him fold his better hand? (a.k.a. Do I have enough Fold Equity?) If so, then bet. If not, then fold.
Pretty simple, right? These questions alone make the red line (winnings without showdown) much less steep.
One more thing about bet sizing and ZOOM tables
A neat little trick that I discovered from some coaching video is that you can tweak your bet sizing, if people aren't paying attention to it:
- If people are going to fold to a 2/3xPot bet, they are usually also going to fold to a 1/2xBet, since they are giving up the hand, so when you bluff a cbet, you can bluff a lot smaller.
- If people are going to call (with a worse hand) a 2/3xPot bet, they are usually going to call a 3/4xPot, or even a Pot sized bet. Thus, you can bet for value bigger.
BEWARE: This only works when nobody is paying attention to the bet sizes, which makes it a good strategy for ZOOM (as long as you readjust if you get caught), but a TERRIBLE one for regular tables, since people will pick up on it really really quicky.
The End:
I really hope this has been of some help to you, and any addition, comment, critique, will be greatly appreciated, since it will only improve my game and that of others.
Best of luck at the tables,
Kerith
