Pre-flop I call because I hope one or both of the loosish players in the blinds will join and I can collect a huge pay-off in the unlikely event that I hit a flush or straight. Would fold be better here?
On the flop, I estimate Villain's range as something like {77+, A8s+, KQs, QJs, JTs, ATo+, KQo}. He's c-bet on 6 out of 6 previous occasions, so while the sample size is small I give little weight to his c-bet here. I'm beaten by TT+, 88, AT, which is 33 combos as against 80 worse combos (although many of those have chances to catch up). Equilab gives me 60.95% equity against that range.
Given the risk he could improve, I thought I should raise here. As an aside, is my sizing ok? I think he doesn't have many draws here. More importantly, I'm worried that he's folding worse hands and calling or raising better hands. The turn is pretty bad for me, but even without that I'd be forced to fold to that big raise on the river, so it seems I've got myself into a bad position.
Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
UTG: $12.66 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 14, 3B: 1, AF: 0.7, Hands: 185
UTG+1: $15.92 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 6, 3B: 2, AF: 2.4, Hands: 187
UTG+2: $10.00 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 8, 3B: 6, AF: 3.5, Hands: 177
MP1: $10.00 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 11, 3B: 3, AF: 2.6, Hands: 74
MP2: $4.69 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 72
CO: $10.25 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 11, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 35
Hero (BTN): $13.51 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 9, AF: 3.8, Hands: 2250
SB: $11.19 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 15, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 40
BB: $4.00 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 17, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 6
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with Q 
T
3 folds, MP1 raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.30, 2 folds
Flop: ($0.75) T 
8 5 (2 players)
MP1 bets $0.54, Hero raises to $1.44, MP1 calls $0.90
Turn: ($3.63) K 
(2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks
River: ($3.63) 2 
(2 players)
MP1 bets $3.47, Hero folds
Final Pot: $3.63
MP1 wins $3.47
(Rake: $0.16)
