Originally posted by roswellx
Well yes I would play like him except pre-flop raise wouldn't be 0.85 $ but at least 1.3$ would you still call with such hand ? Do you call any pairs from any position ? It's pure luck of yours in this case and that is what I mean by downswing (lack of luck ???) Unfortunately, I do not count this as a leak. As it is possible that another Q can come on the turn or river making HIM lucky then would it be leak of yours or bad luck ?
Yes I will call any pocket pairs from any position (SH game) and will raise them from any positions, even 22 from UTG.
I will only fold them to 3-bets on the flop in some situations, for example BU or SB 3-betting my UTG raise.
If you would raise to 1.3$ UTG I will call even more happily since I know you will have a hard time throwing away your hand post flop.
This works because of implied odds and this is not luck or anything.
I will hit my set on the flop 1/7 times.
This means theoretically I will loose 6$ and then make anywhere between 1-25$, against players like you 25$ all the time.
Over time this sums up to a pretty big amount in profit for me.
Your odds for hitting your set with AA after I have already hit my set on the flop and your all in are 8.5%, hence out of 10 times I push you all in when you have overpair and I have hit, you will only improve once in the best case scenario, giving me a lot of money overall.
So please do not say this is luck. It is a highly profitable strategy I and other players use against players like you.
Yours on the other hand is a high loss strategy and not bad luck:
If you have AA vs my 10 10 for example you are 80% ahead pre-flop.
Everytime you will raise me 1.3$ and every time I call.
8 x 1.3$ = 10.4$
I will hit my set between 1-2 times in every 10 hands we play like this, and this is the only time I will ever continue the game past the flop. Even if I have an overpair... I will fold it since I know what you will have.
At best you will make a loss of 14.6$ at worst 39.6$ (NL25).
Sometimes you will make a profit of course when you hit your set after the all-in push on the flop vs my set on the turn or so, but out of 10 times we push like this it will only happen once. Also sometimes I will invest like 2-3$ more on the flop if I hit an overpair, but will fold it to your push or raise.
I hope you will understand this. If you don't you will loose a lot of money and its not because I got lucky hitting my set or so, its because your overvaluing your cards way too much post-flop.
If villain behaves like I did in the hand I posted... just fold it next time ok?
Some more stats I dug up from my hand histories:
The hand range 22-99 has been delt to me 1845 times. That hand ranges has a 138.77bb/100 of profit for me.
