River decisionnn

I think it's close. He shouldn't have many flushes and straight considering positions, but on the other hand I'm not sure if he is shoving JJ+, 66, 33, 44 on the river. Maybe we could check/fold this one, but not sure.

It looks bluffy, tho I doubt he thought he could have made you fold any set and it didn't look like you hadn't one, he's been x raised ott...

Our opponent's calling range vs a rip on the river looks a lot like this:

Board: 6♦3♥4♥ 8♦ 9♥
Equity Win Tie
MP2 39.29% 39.29% 0.00% { JJ+, 99-88, 66, TdTs, TdTc, ThTc, 4d4h, 4d4s, 4h4s, 4d4c, 4h4c, 3d3h, 3d3s, 3h3s, 3d3c, 3h3c, 86s+, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, Kh9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, Th9h, Ah8h, Kh8h, 9h8h, Ah7h, 9h7h, Ah6h, 7h6h, Ah5h, 6h5h, Ah4h, 5h4h, Ah3h }
MP3 60.71% 60.71% 0.00% { 8s8c }

I've excluded 2 combinations of sets since there's a chance villain would just ship them on the turn. If you think villain would ship all sets on the turn, the river decision would be between check/call and check/fold depending on whether you think villain is value-betting KK. (which I'm sure he is)

Unless you think villain is bet/calling AK on the turn and shoving it on the river, villain really doesn't have hands to bluff with in this spot, but he does have worse hands he could value-bet. HOWEVER, it's likely this player will be calling a river shove with these hands even after the flush completes. There is a small chance these hands may check back, however, if we check to him. This means his river betting range is stronger than his river calling range. Even though there are a lot of flushes in his range, I think we fare slightly better if we shove rather than check/call.

So it seems that check/calling only serves to strengthen villain's range because there are no real hands villain could bluff with, & some value hands may elect to check back the river, even though we know he'd simply call them vs a shove. Villain does not look like the type of player to hero fold TT-QQ on the river after calling a turn raise.

Not enough hands to make a good assumption. We can bet, we can x.
I do not think villain will bet anything worse in this spot.

Originally posted by nitrol
Not enough hands to make a good assumption. We can bet, we can x.
I do not think villain will bet anything worse in this spot.

i agree that he should not bet, and i tought that im making a bad call but now i dont know what to think...

Originally posted by nitrol
Not enough hands to make a good assumption. We can bet, we can x.
I do not think villain will bet anything worse in this spot.

Enough hands to start forming assumptions I reckon. If you don't think he's going to bet anything worse in this spot, then shoving would be correct by far. vs regular I think this spot would be a shove. Against a lighter more aggressive opponent, I think the EV of check/call vs bet is likely really close, but only because our opponent would be betting worse hands for value when checked to.

Let's assume he is a regular though, has less flushes in his range, but will check back JJ+ and sets 100% when checked to. However, when we bet, he will bluff-catch with sets and KK+ some portion of the time. It's clear that shoving is much more +EV than check/calling since there are no bluff hands our opponent will be betting.

This similarly holds true except in this case it's closer because even though villain will likely be bluff-catching us wider, he will also be betting some worse hands for value.

Do you agree with line of thought?

Originally posted by vuciitis

Originally posted by nitrol
Not enough hands to make a good assumption. We can bet, we can x.
I do not think villain will bet anything worse in this spot.

i agree that he should not bet, and i tought that im making a bad call but now i dont know what to think...

Spoiler

Hero checks, UTG bets $12.39, Hero calls $6.86 all in
Final Pot: $23.42
Hero shows 8 8
UTG shows 3 3
Hero wins $22.37
(Rake: $-4.48)

Run your hand through an equity calculator If you're getting it in good depends on how many sets & overpairs you think he'll have alongside the flushes

EDIT: It's likely that you're getting it in good

EDIT 2: Didn't see his hand in the spoiler! Boom ♦ that's so good

Originally posted by vuciitis

Originally posted by nitrol
Not enough hands to make a good assumption. We can bet, we can x.
I do not think villain will bet anything worse in this spot.

i agree that he should not bet, and i tought that im making a bad call but now i dont know what to think...

Spoiler

Hero checks, UTG bets $12.39, Hero calls $6.86 all in

Final Pot: $23.42
Hero shows 8 8
UTG shows 3 3
Hero wins $22.37
(Rake: $-4.48)

Just take a note on him.

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by vuciitis

Originally posted by nitrol
Not enough hands to make a good assumption. We can bet, we can x.
I do not think villain will bet anything worse in this spot.

i agree that he should not bet, and i tought that im making a bad call but now i dont know what to think...

Spoiler

Hero checks, UTG bets $12.39, Hero calls $6.86 all in

Final Pot: $23.42
Hero shows 8 8
UTG shows 3 3
Hero wins $22.37
(Rake: $-4.48)

Just take a note on him.
definitely a yellow note

Originally posted by Drew94

Originally posted by nitrol

Originally posted by vuciitis

Originally posted by nitrol
Not enough hands to make a good assumption. We can bet, we can x.
I do not think villain will bet anything worse in this spot.

i agree that he should not bet, and i tought that im making a bad call but now i dont know what to think...

Spoiler

Hero checks, UTG bets $12.39, Hero calls $6.86 all in

Final Pot: $23.42
Hero shows 8 8
UTG shows 3 3
Hero wins $22.37
(Rake: $-4.48)

Just take a note on him.
definitely a yellow note

Someone +1 me