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Second pair and FD OTF

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Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

I'm interested in my flop decision here, so I've snipped the rest of the hand (which was uninteresting). Villain has 38% steal from BU, 67% fold to resteal, so his range is relatively strong OTF. He has 68% F2CB OTF. What should I do?

Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players

Hero (SB): $10.00 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 14, 3B: 7, AF: 2.9, Hands: 13465
BB: $13.82 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 15, 3B: 3, AF: 2.5, Hands: 326
UTG: $10.73 - VPIP: 38, PFR: 22, 3B: 0, AF: 6.0, Hands: 32
UTG+1: $13.99 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 10, 3B: 3, AF: 1.9, Hands: 286
MP: $11.33 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 24, 3B: 11, AF: 2.0, Hands: 33
CO: $10.15 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 3, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 37
BTN: $19.99 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 11, 3B: 2, AF: 3.4, Hands: 915

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with K :heart: Q :heart:
4 folds, BTN raises to $0.25, Hero raises to $0.90, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.65

Flop: ($1.90) 5 :heart: A :heart: K :diamond: (2 players)
Hero ???


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10 replies
LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

Very good spot to x/c, by x/c such hand you make your x/c range stronger on this board and I don't see any reason to bet


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Yeah, we have enough equity to stay in the hand but not enough to bet.


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Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

Ok good, that was the conclusion I eventually reached. Might have been better if I'd checked in tempo though.


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Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

Not sure about Nitrol's reasoning though. Villain's range might be something like {JJ-77, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+}. Against that range we have 70.6% equity.


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JCSeerup
Joined: 14.12.2010

Originally posted by nitrol
Yeah, we have enough equity to stay in the hand but not enough to bet.

How much equity do we need to bet?

Originally posted by Lathdari
Not sure about Nitrol's reasoning though. Villain's range might be something like {JJ-77, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+}. Against that range we have 70.6% equity.

Kinda irrelevant what equity we have against that range.


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JCSeerup
Joined: 14.12.2010

Originally posted by Lathdari
Ok good, that was the conclusion I eventually reached. Might have been better if I'd checked in tempo though.

Btw I agree on this


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bonecore
Joined: 02.11.2009

There are 2 ways we can play this hand
1) we play for what we have now... that is x/c line
2) we play for bluff that is x/r , bet or shove turn (just remember once you start betting/raising , your pair has no more value)


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Sure the pair has value. It yields up to 14 outs (make set or two pair) compared to 9 for an ordinary FD. This is what makes the x/r a juicy option.


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CPallo
Joined: 12.04.2012

I think check-calling flop would be the best to keep his worse hands in and bluffs. After that turn should be quite easy for us; if he bets, he should be ahead of us. If he checks, we most likely have value-bet on river.

Against a turn bet I could even go for a check-raise to have some sort of a T ch/raise range in 3-bet pots without nuts :f_biggrin:


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Totally agree with the xc on flop. We should keep villain wide.


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