NL6, 6-max, TPTK+NFD vs. odd river bet

because there's 4 to a straight and he doesn't have it. i might consider raising to bluff out sets though that's probably a bad idea (but just consider it)

I haven't looked at the spoiler, but based on his stats and the fact that he donks the flop, this seems like the villain has 56s, 56o, 68s, AQo, KQo, 77, or 44 and is afraid of you jamming the River if he checks so he throws out a tiny blocker bet that he hopes confuses you into just calling so he can get to showdown. Would a busted flush draw do this too? I would think he would check/fold the River. The bet is so small, I seriously doubt he is doing that with air. I'm going to guess you are beat here, but you're getting a ridiculous price to call.

Most people won't bet a set for value on that board.

I'd be tempted to call here as he reps only 8x; can't imagine him donking 88 or 98s into two people on the flop.

I'd also raise this flop because we've smacked it and I'm happy to get all my chips in.

I agree with raising flop. Another spade may kill the action, we have TPTK and nut fd, so I don't mind raising and getting it in.

you are hardly doing well against a range that actually gets it in. that said maybe he could bet/call some very few worse hands

Originally posted by Tomaloc
you are hardly doing well against a range that actually gets it in.

Yeah OK...

Board: Q♥7♠4♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    40.03%  40.03%   0.00% { AsQs }
MP3    59.97%  59.97%   0.00% { 77, 44, 6s5s }

And that's giving him credit enough to NOT stack off with KQo, which at NL6 I think is a leap.

I think you played this optimally. Even though he seems to make some blocker/tiny value-bet on river, we don't have any value in raising as we should assume that he could call worse hands here. And if we raise small and he 3-bets, then we are in trouble.

So I liked your play, wp sir

the guy is a tight reg. why take something close a flip (from slightly losing to slightly winning, depending on your range optimism) when you can simply play the thing ip which is super clearly +EV?

Against unknown NL5 player it's ok to raise flop to get it in.
Since villain is a tight regular calling is better. You keep some possible KQ and worse FD in his range. Even if he did hit a set OTF if you hit your FD you can still extract some value of his sets.