QQ beat?

Sample size is small but still godd tight stats. Xcall seems ok on river vs this guy if the bet size is reasonable.

i would go for x call aswell

40-50% of the pot will do nicely.

By betting u turn your hand into bluff. X/c for me is fine depends on bet size.

Interesting...which hands that I actually beat (apart from AK) do you guys see him betting here?

We have not see him betting

Originally posted by VaskataBuci
We have not see him betting

Not quite sure what you mean by that. He 3bets pre and bets the flop...

I think because he's not continuing on the turn we can discount AA/KK from his range which leaves us with AQs+, AKo, TT and QQ on the river. and from this range only TT beats us.

Originally posted by crazyguy
I think because he's not continuing on the turn we can discount AA/KK from his range which leaves us with AQs+, AKo, TT and QQ on the river. and from this range only TT beats us.

I thought about this for a while...and I don't see the difference between QQ and KK+. In his shoes, I would check the turn behind with ALL my overpairs because I played pretty tight and he has to give me a narrow 3bet-calling range: AA/KK is almost always a 4bet pre, so that leaves pockets QQ and lower, AK and AQ. On the turn, I have either hit very hard with 77-JJ, floatet with Ahi or have one of 3 hands against which a turnbet is actually good (QQ, AcKc, AcQc). If he bets the turn with an overpair, I call my sets/straight and fold all my floats. So imo a bet here is only good against the three hands that I mentioned above.

I agree that his river range is likely either TT+, AQ, AK, or TT-QQ, AQ, AK. That range you're ok against.

However, to value bet you don't just need to be ahead of his range,
you have to be ahead of his calling range. Otherwise, it's not really a value bet (you want hands he would call with to actually be worse).

His calling range here will not contain the ace highs... and even if we assume he would bet AA/KK on the turn (which is not really certain at all here, there are reasons he would not want to), his range is still TT-QQ

That is the range you have to beat if you bet as a value bet. not the range he got here with.
Quick equity check - (you can punch it into Equilab) - there are 6 different possibilities for TT, 1 for QQ, and 1 for JJ, and we lose to all but QQ (which we split the pot with), and no chances of winning (According to equilab, you have 6.25% equity against this calling range).

So, the question remains, do we have some fold equity here? is there a possible bluff? What better hands in his range he would fold?
It all boils down to the turn check in my opinion - Is it possible he checks the turn with AA/KK for some reason here?

If not, we have almost no fold equity here, since these are the only hands that are better than yours which I think he can fold to a bet here. (well you have the 1 possibility for QQ which he might fold as well, but since you have the other 2, that has 6th of the likelihood of TT, for example).

IF, however, he can get here with KK,AA and played the turn for pot control in position for some reason (which seems like a mistake against a UTG raise in a FR table on this board to me...), for example, then betting here becomes more interesting.

However, I find 2 problems even there -
1) He's not folding AA or KK here all the time even if they somehow got here.
2) If he does, then his range on the river is TT+, AQ, AK. With this board that would leave 44 different combinations of cards.
That is Even if we assume we can get him to fold QQ-AA plus of course the bad Ace highs, those are 9 combinations for QQ-AA and 24 for AK+AQ.
That means under this assumption we win the pot by betting here 3 out of 4 times. That would indeed make it a nice spot to bet.

However, too many ifs in my opinion. IF he checks his KK/AA on that turn, IF he folds them on the river.
And again, if KK/AA didn't get to the river range, we have nearly no bluff equity or value here.
So a bet here looks iffy IMO.

I mean, it seemed like the right thing to do to me before I laid down the ranges and numbers. my instinct was to say the same thing some others have said (~40-50% size bet), went over it again, and had to edit the post before submitting after I reached my new conclusion...

THAT'S a hand I wish we could get one of pokerstrategy's staff/coaches opinion on

Ouch.
Forgot to mention the JJ issue - he didn't barrel the turn.
So we can likely remove it from his range.

However, in that case, the river actually makes things worse since now it only removes 1 combination out of all the aforementioned ones, so no real change there in the conclusions.

I think it's perfectly reasonable that he checks the turn here with AA/KK/QQ... why would he bet them, that would make no sense at all. (not that all players make sense in NL2)

Now, now you guys out TT+ in his pre-flop range, and I have to disagree, because hero raised in UTG, people are not 3betting TT and JJ vs UTG that often as far as I know, so I would think it very unlikely.

IMO, but they way it was played, he has almost 100% of the time QQ+ and AK.

c/c river is a option to bluff catch vs AK especially since we could consider that there's pretty much nothing he value bets on the river. But then again I wonder if there couldnt be a bunch of fishes who would try to bet the overpair on the river... but still I think it could be a check/call

Now, if we think we can make him fold QQ+ here, for me this is definitely a shove on the river. But we must be careful, because I've seen call downs that make no sense whatsoever in NL2-NL10

In the end I guess it really really depends on the villain...

It sucks to play QQ OOP in such a situation btw, I think we could even consider a fold pre-flop, unless we know villain is 3betting looser. We get value from nothing post flop and when we have an overpair, we're often dominated by KK+. It is BU v UTG. I doubt people will exploit us if we fold pre. Call it nitty play, but I think we lose money in the long run by playing this hand

Folding QQ pre-flop makes you so tight that you can't possibly win against observant opponents. But you doubt that players are observant and think they are tight when on the button. I don't agree.

Folding QQ to a 3-bet is definitely wrong even against a tighter than usual reg.
It's leaking ev... Even OOP, it's a hand with a big +EV.

Folding this pre in this spot would lose a lot more in the long run than you would occasionally lose by playing them. It would also prevent a lot of wins.
It might not be the nicest of spots OOP, but it's definitely required to play good poker.

Folding OOP would just protect you against variance, but would lose a lot of profit over time. Too much. Even if players aren't very observant.
This level of tightness loses too much potential profit without players even trying to punish it.

You'd need hundreds of hands with someone and an almost non existent 3-bet frequency to even start considering folding it profitably.

The short version - QQ is still a profitable hand to play, even OOP in a 3-bet pot. It's just much higher variance than other situations in which you get to play it.

We can't fold this pre flop. OTR x/c seems reasonable, depending on the bet size.