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AQs Squeeze play from SB

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NothingIsForSho
Joined: 01.06.2014

My question is do you think this is a profitable squeeze play as opposed to flat calling against players who will not fold because they think you have AA or KK and want to just call to set you or make a flush?

Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): $2 (100 bb)
BB: $3.30 (165 bb)
UTG: $2.07 (103.5 bb)
MP: $2.05 (102.5 bb)
CO: $1.16 (58 bb)
BTN: $2.36 (118 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A Q
UTG raises to $0.06, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.06, Hero raises to $0.26, BB folds, UTG calls $0.20, BTN calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.80) 2 J 2 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.77, BTN calls $0.77, Hero folds

Turn: ($2.34) J (2 players)
UTG checks, BTN bets $1.33, UTG folds

Results:

Spoiler

$2.34 pot ($0.08 rake)
Final Board: 2 J 2 J
UTG mucked and lost (-$1.03 net)
BTN mucked and won $2.26 ($1.23 net)


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17 replies
kriko92
Joined: 16.11.2010

If we accept your assumptions, why don't you cbet flop?


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NothingIsForSho
Joined: 01.06.2014

because both players snapped at me and were highly impulsive


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Both players do not like to fold vsa squeeze?


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kriko92
Joined: 16.11.2010

Well you said everyone puts you on AA/KK and calls preflop only to hit set or flush. How many sets or flushes do you see here? If you think that is the case, then you have to cbet a ton and print money.

Just wanted to show you that something in your thought process didn't make perfect sense. AQs is definitely a profitable squeeze on nl2, especially when they call wide ranges.


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NothingIsForSho
Joined: 01.06.2014

Yes, but I have to do a lot of guessing postflop and the pot is bigger of course, and I have to guess what their ranges are. They might think I have AK and call with a pair postflop also, so you cannot cbet every time.


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kriko92
Joined: 16.11.2010

Don't get me wrong, I don't advise you to cbet a lot. That was only under the assumptions from your first post.
In reality people don't put you on AA and think about implied odds on nl2, they just like their hands. Your main profit will come from the cases when you hit and they call you down with a dominated hand. Cbet bluff only the good boards against one player, vs two I'd try half cbet only on Kxx dry.


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wimNP
Joined: 11.03.2011

IMO this is not the position or time to squeeze.
The goal of squeeze play is to get the loose O/R to fold and the light CC also to fold. This by means of a big 3bet: at least 5x the O/R-bet.

In this hand you didn't provide stats which states that UTG is a loose player.
The BTN has in the streets to come absolute position. Even if UTG doesn't call BTN gets pot odds of 40:20 or 2:1. This makes even a call with speculative hands doable.
Hero's 3bet is standard sized and not big.

If Villain thinks indeed H has AA or KK the call-15-rule (or the call-20-rule) makes calling H's bet a big mistake.


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kriko92
Joined: 16.11.2010

Originally posted by wimNP
IMO this is not the position or time to squeeze.
The goal of squeeze play is to get the loose O/R to fold and the light CC also to fold. This by means of a big 3bet: at least 5x the O/R-bet.

This is the goal of squeezing as a bluff. With AQs we squeeze for value...


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NothingIsForSho
Joined: 01.06.2014

It seems to be unclear at the very least. I'm wondering as to whether or not it would be better to not 3bet in such spots at all even with AK unless I have stats on all the players, and take a more safe approach to the game. But on the other hand if I don't do this teh BB gets in for cheap, and so the value of my hand decreases in that way. Thank you anyway for the comments.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I like the squeeze. With a callwe create a perfect spot for BB.
If I am on BB and if SB just calls I am squeezing here.
We want UTG to fold and to play vs the weaker BTN range.


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MisterSnS
Joined: 09.11.2011

Easy squeeze. Super standard. I don't like flatting here because I don't want the BB to come along as well and we are not closing the action postflop. Sometimes your squeeze can be for value and you can stack off bad players' KQ. If they try to setmine, as mentioned before, they are making a mathematical mistake since they are not getting paid off every time (you gotta hit an A or a Q in this scenario, which happens just in at most 30% of the cases). Well played. I wouldn't cbet this board. They can both hold sth like JTs/AJ/KJs or just middlepairs or flushdraws that want to see another card first.

I hope you understand now why the squeeze is the right play.


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Afulibador
Joined: 21.08.2009

Originally posted by NothingIsForSho
Yes, but I have to do a lot of guessing postflop and the pot is bigger of course, and I have to guess what their ranges are. They might think I have AK and call with a pair postflop also, so you cannot cbet every time.

I think u are always looking for the worse possible result.


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Afulibador
Joined: 21.08.2009

Originally posted by kriko92
In reality people don't put you on AA and think about implied odds on nl2, they just like their hands.

Agree. In fact, I would add that they call wide cause they remember "that time" they folded 72o and flop came 722. So they keep calling to prolly hit the flop. They don't make a hard work trying to figure out what hero actually has.


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Afulibador
Joined: 21.08.2009

About the hand itself, was well played imo.
I really liked the squeeze pre and the fold vs big bet from utg on flop in a multiway pot.


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Dadramel
Joined: 10.08.2014

Std squeeze, decent fold, everyday hand.


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Even I am happy to squeeze (I probably squeeze too little because I don't like playing big pots OOP) here and I'm not particularly unhappy if they call.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

This hand is pretty standard. Definitely a good squeeze. OTF you can fold when villain bets pot and you have only A high.


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