In my database i have around 93k hands.
5740 of those are pocket pairs.
Odds of hitting a set on the flop are 7.5 : 1, and therefore i should get [5740:7.5]= 765sets
My poker tracker says that i got 429 sets. So there are more then 300 missing due to variance?
Is this true or i made a mistake in my calculations?
thx
Probability of flopping set or better: 1 in 8.51
Odds against flopping set or better: 7.51:1
So you should have flopped 674 sets or better. The difference is due to variance or rigged site :tongue:.
This is crazy then. If would have picked in those hands just blinds and not a peny from continuatinal bets that would sum up a fortune...
Not to mention how many times i could stack someone who has overpair...
You forget a simple fact.
You didnt see the flop every time you had a pocket pair.
it would be pretty sick if those odds were correct, as you could then just fold pocket pairs and still hit sets after having folded!
Originally posted by darkonebg
You forget a simple fact.
You didnt see the flop every time you had a pocket pair.
!!!
Use a filter that only shows postflop hands.
Best regards,
Chiller3k
Is this filter under actions\flop\saw flop?
If yes then i should have had 450 sets on flop, but i had only 400. This looks better but still its a lot i would say.
Originally posted by Ensyfer
Is this filter under actions\flop\saw flop?If yes then i should have had 450 sets on flop, but i had only 400. This looks better but still its a lot i would say.
dividing by 8.5 or 7.5?
Hi!
The odds for flopping sets is just 2/50+2/49+2/48, that is roughly 1 in 8.
GL at the tables!
Originally posted by ZeroDegrees
Hi!
The odds for flopping sets is just 2/50+2/49+2/48, that is roughly 1 in 8.GL at the tables!
not true, its 1-P(not flop a set) = 1-(48/50*47/49*46/48) = 1-0.882449= 0.117551= 11.7551%
7.51:1 according to Doyle's Super System appendix which is the same as 11.7509% so that should be correct 
