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OESFD: Shove on the Flop?

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Bazarov62
Joined: 14.11.2014

Party, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $1.98 (99 bb)
BB: $4.09 (204.5 bb)
UTG+1: $2 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $2 (100 bb)
Hero (MP1): $2.59 (129.5 bb)
MP2: $2.08 (104 bb)
MP3: $1.02 (51 bb)
CO: $0.97 (48.5 bb)
BTN: $2.46 (123 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T J
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.06, MP2 raises to $0.26, MP3 calls $0.26, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.81) K 9 8 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $0.55, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $2.33 and is all-in, MP2 calls $1.27 and is all-in

Turn: ($4.45) 8 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: ($4.45) 4 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Not sure if this is a call or fold preflop in a MW pot facing a big 3 bet. I think it is ok to check shove here on the flop as I don't want my equity to reduce on the turn and then be faced with a large bet where I may not have the implied odds to call OOP but am honestly not sure. Appreciate any advice.

Baz62

Results:

Spoiler

$4.45 pot ($0.22 rake)
Final Board: K 9 8 8 4
Hero showed T J and won $4.23 ($2.15 net)
MP2 showed A A and lost (-$2.08 net)
MP3 mucked and lost (-$0.26 net)


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9 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

When you close the action and for that price, you can call preflop.


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la55i
Joined: 27.01.2013

You can call pre because you get a good price. OTF donking is one option but I don't see anything wrong with your line.


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vonki
Joined: 18.03.2008

if we assign our villain the following calling range (which I think is safe to assume) when we shove we have:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 49.06% 49.06% 0.00% KK+, AKs, AsQs, AKo
MP3 50.94% 50.94% 0.00% JsTs

Pretty much a coinflip equity. If we can make him fold sometimes on the flop (which is not impossible), it's a +EV play! So it should be fine. :f_thumbsup:


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krasops
Joined: 02.02.2014

nh wp ... no need to discuss further...
pre u can defend snap and easy ...
Dont donk flop .. as played it's wp...


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Jaissica
Joined: 10.02.2009

Easy fold pre. You are only getting ~10-1 maximum implied on your call with the big stack (drifts out to about 11.5 with your 6 cents and the shorty's 26 cents by the time you act), and are out of position. The short stack being in the pot makes your hand worse, not better, as it all but locks you down to playing fit or fold. It also exposes you to negative implieds in the case of making two pairs or exposed trips, as you can trust these hands to be good against the squeezer's range postflop and shove, but not against the fishy shortstack.

Reframe it this way - would you flat a 10BB raise from the big blind vs an UTG raise, just because the BU had called it too, and the MP had posted blind+dead then folded? The hand ranges are even worse here with the squeeze range being tighter than the UTG raise range. The current pot odds and future implieds are near enough to the same to not matter. The positions are the same.

Postflop it's never wrong to shove the monster draw OTF. Where people get into trouble is when they raise the flop and get called then miss on the turn - and then try to shove it still.


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Jaissica
Joined: 10.02.2009

Oh, and JT isn't even a good suited connector as far as they go for this spot. QJT flop. Bam.

45, 67 and 78 are all better in this spot for us as flopping the idiot straight or two pairs doesn't leave us exposed. And they are still easy folds preflop.

89, JT and T9 are all a little marginal as they can flop idiot straights, idiot straight draws or two pairs that are heavily exposed to the villain's own range.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Well, noone said we should go bazooka on QJT flop. On the contrary, we should proceed with caution. We are calling because of the flush and straight possibilies. Or you exclude the cautious style postflop?


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Nice hand. I would have played it exactly the same as you did. J10s is among my favorite starting hands, and I will almost always try to see a flop with it as long as the price is reasonable. Again, nice hand.


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Jaissica
Joined: 10.02.2009

I exclude calling here at 11.5 to one in general. The jt being worse than 78 post is more for fun.


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