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[Closed] Quiz: (5$/10$) 75o from SB, Blinds-Battle vs Eric Froehlich... river play ?

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Well guys, here my analys

His river-raise put me on a difficult spot: I dont know if I have to call or 3-bet.
Well, I have to recognize how many times I'm ahead and how many times he beats me... of course with the Time-Button ...

Imo he doenst have a straight, becouse there are no reason to play bet/call on the turn with a straight ! So 75 and T7 are not possible on his range: he would play bet/3-bet on the turn with basically the nuts !

I'm very aggressive and he knows that (even if we've played only 20 hands), but I don't want to believe that he slowplays a straight on the turn to raise me on the river (with 2 possible flush draws)

So he doesn't have T7 or 75 (99% of the times) ...

What kind of hands does he have ?
- Trips is possible: he could have an 8 on his range
- Could he have a Full-House ? Yes, maybe... but KK, 99, 88, 66 are not possible ... his line would be very very strange: he would 3-bet preflop these PP almost 100% of the times and on the turn he cannot plays bet/call with a Set.
So , in my mind, the only hands he could have are K8, 98, 86 give him a full-house that beats me.
But K8 and 98 are not possible also (imo), becouse he would bet/3-bet on the turn with 2-pairs.
The only full-house possible is 86, becouse is not aggressive and he just bet/call the turn with bottom two pair. Is it possible ? maybe a weak play by him.

How many times does he have a trips and how many times does he have a full-house ?
Considering #combinations there are too many times that he has trips and very few times with the full-house. If I have 66% equity I have to 3-bet on the river.

I must to be ahead 2 times of 3 and when I was playing I've "decided" that this condition was true (even if I didnt know the #combinations exaclty). Without K8 and 98 I've "seen" that this condition was extremely easy

8 's "possible" are 8:h e 8:d
6 's "possible" are 6:d , 6:s and 6:c

so 2x3 = 6 possible full-house... very very few combinations !

Even if I decide that 98 is possible on his range, nothing change!! Other 6 full-house and 12 full-house totally.

But, how many trips ? sooo muchhh :)
I dont believe he folds an 8 on a blinds battle on that super draw-heavy board

with equilator... I put on his range 86 and 98 also

there are 112 combinations (not sure about that, becouse there are dead cards on the board that probably would be removed on #112 )
- I dont know if Equilator in this screen counts 86 without 8:c 8:s 6:h (on the board)... but not too much difference

He beats me 12 times on a total of 112 combinations, even if the situation is 12 / 90 is great again !

My equity is good enough to make a 3-bet (almost 76%)

 http://www.PokerStrategy.com 
Operation canceled... 2,924,554 games processed in 1 seconds.

Board:         Kh 9c 8s 8c 6h 
Dead:          

               Equity    Win       Tie       Loss      Hand
Player 1:      75.986 %  75.986 %  0.000 %   24.014 %  7d5c
Player 2:      24.014 %  24.014 %  0.000 %   75.986 %  Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 85s+, A8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, 86o+

I've removed hands like 85o and worse and A8s that he would probably 3-bet preflop and/or raise on the flop... but again nothing changes (if I put these hands on his range I have more equity)

hands like 85, 87, T8 got 1 pair + gut-shot on the turn and I think are all possible (he would see the river to improve his hand)

hands like J8 and Q8 are less possible, but on a blinds-battle I think he would play however even If I show strength, and I've considered all 98 combinations, so I think the range is almost ok.

Easy 3-bet!... The interesting thing is that if I consider K8 combinations I have 67% equity (Try if you want) : 3-bet again !

So here my play:

River: 8♣ K♥ 9♣ 6♥ 8♠ ($70, 2 active)
Hero bets $10, BB raises to $20, Hero raises to $30, BB calls $10.

Final Pot: $127, $3 raked
Hero, net: $62, Won at showdown, has 5♣ 7♦ (a Nine High Straight)
BB, net: -$65, Lost at showdown, has 8♥ Q♥ (Three of a Kind, Eights)

he shows Q8s with a flush draw on the turn and I dont know if he would fold Q8 without the flush draw after my turn c/r ?? ?(

I dont know if he would be playes hands like J8 and Q8 without the flush draw, but I think there are not too much difference on my equity if I remove some J8/Q8 combinations.

When I was playing my analys was a basic-analys but I've seen good :P and play right. Now I'm surprised that I had so much equity

He wrote on chat "what a missclick" or something like this, he believes that I've clicked the wrong button ... and I was interesting to analyse this hand with Equilator


Yoghi
Joined: 10.09.2007

Owned his soul


Nice analyses. :)

So he was more aggressive than the stats may say? From the stats he could check behind a lot turns even with an eight in his hand and a gutshot but ou probably know it better as you played him. :)


Originally posted by ciRith
So he was more aggressive than the stats may say?

Maybe... 300 hands doesnt mean that I know this guy


Yoghi: Just for my curiosity... how are you deciding who's fish? From pocker traker stats from SH tables, or you are just marking players that play poorly on HU?

TTT


Yoghi
Joined: 10.09.2007

It's just some basic tells such as limping preflop, buying in with a weird amount etc (also not being from germany is usually a tell that they are a fish (on partypoker atleast))


Originally posted by Yoghi
also not being from germany is usually a tell that they are a fish (on partypoker atleast))

Thank you :P

TTT

P.S.: Am I carp or pikeperch? Playing on Party and not being from Germany...
P.P.S.: But still closer to carp than shark :((... learn, learn, learn... still long way to go...


OlivierLu
Joined: 17.11.2007

Great analysis danielasso !

@Yoghi : about HU.
I guess you switched to HU because you win more. How much do you win compared to SH ?

-I try FL-HU $1/2 yesterday. This thread and the Cornholio's recent video convinced me to try a shoot. I was suprised by the poor level of my oppenents -


Yoghi
Joined: 10.09.2007

I nearly tripled my BR in 1 month, that's how good I run :P


I think HU need more skills, I think I can try in the future, but only 5/10+

until 3/6 the rake is high to play hu


Yoghi
Joined: 10.09.2007

On 3/6 the rake is easily beatable if you play fishes only and have some clue about how to play the game ^^


Originally posted by Yoghi
It's just some basic tells such as limping preflop, buying in with a weird amount etc (also not being from germany is usually a tell that they are a fish (on partypoker atleast))

Very true. ;)

I played a very good canadian a few days ago. He had luck as I rate canadians as fish without ay history. Sry to all canadians.)